Franken Gaining But It Will Be Very Close in Minnesota

by: tremayne

Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 22:58


Norm Coleman's lead over Al Franken is down to 136 votes from the original pre-recount deficit of 215. To get an idea of where this is going let's break Minnesota down into three roughly equal parts:

Part of the Minnesota Vote Original Votes % Recounted Franken Margin Still to Come?
Big pro-Franken counties 905000 38% in +72 +118?
Big pro-Coleman counties 724000 46% in +18 +21?
Small counties (Coleman) 793000 55% in -11 -9?

The Big pro-Franken counties are Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis and he has netted 72 votes there so far. If he continues at the same pace he can pick up another 118 in the days ahead.

Continues after the jump.
tremayne :: Franken Gaining But It Will Be Very Close in Minnesota

The Big pro-Coleman counties are Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Olmstead, Scott, Stearns, Washington and Wright. Even though they have all tilted Coleman in the original voting, Franken has picked up 18 votes there during the recount. Most of that is due to Dakota county (+32 for Franken) where 27% of the vote has been recounted. If Franken  continues at the same pace he could gain another 21 votes in those counties.

The rest of the counties are smaller and tend to favor Coleman. He has netted 11 votes from these so far but the good news is that 55% of these votes have already been recounted. In the remaining he is on pace to gain another 9 votes.

All together Franken is on pace to gain 130 more votes which would leave him 6, yes 6, votes short of Coleman. Then it would come down to to the challenged ballots, currently 414 challenged by Franken and 409 challenged by Coleman. There's also the uncounted absentee ballots that the courts there must rule on.

At any rate, it's going to be close. I hope we don't lose by one vote for Lizard People.


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Franken Gaining But It Will Be Very Close in Minnesota | 24 comments
Is there anyway to tell which precints? (0.00 / 0)
The reason i asked is due to demographical breakdowns, which would tell us if the votes yet to be counted are traditional groups who tend to mess up their ballots.  
i haven't seen it at that level (0.00 / 0)
I use the data here:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new...

One interesting thing, the percent of precincts counted for St. Louis county is 67 while the percent of the vote counted is only 36. That tells me the big city in that county (Duluth) has not been counted yet. Franken already has gained 19 in that county but he may outperform that pace in the remaining votes to be recounted.

[ Parent ]
Depends (0.00 / 0)
St. Louis was where some of those machines were the old scan-trons that couldn't read faint oval-filling. I don't think those machines were used in Duluth itself, which means the most favorable numbers may already be done and he may not keep up the pace of gains there.
[ Parent ]
Not really (0.00 / 0)
I keep asking this- but we still have no addressed the AP study- ie, where are the 30,000 votes or so who didn't pick Senate ??? Now maybe they are all there is, but I don't think its simply a matter of the machines.  
[ Parent ]
I think we're talking about different things (0.00 / 0)
I'm talking about a specific problem that's already been documented in St. Louis County and nowhere else which I think explains the disproportionately favorable results there (compared to say, Minneapolis).

As to the 30,000 votes (statewide), typically there are always undervotes from president to the downballot races, and I suspect that there may be a larger number of those in this race where people de facto wanted to pick "none of the above" because they didn't like how this race shook out.

[ Parent ]
That's exactly the point I was getting to (0.00 / 0)
Franken as his people seem confident that where the votes are being counted means as much as how many votes have come in his favor. I was curious about whether demographically-- like you say urban, older voters, etc, have those groups been really reached in the percentage of votes already recounted or if that will come toward the back end. I wonder the same about Hennepin (suck at spelling that name) etc.  
[ Parent ]
Really? (0.00 / 0)
Must be different set up in Minnesota. The places I have worked, voters per precinct is fairly consistent (meaning big population centers have more precincts as well as more voters).
[ Parent ]
Thought of a follow up question (0.00 / 0)
do we know what number of ballots did not have a vote for Senate? That would also be a very useful number for gauging whats happening because of the AP study.
[ Parent ]
Disagree with your analysis a little (0.00 / 0)
Suspect that odd result from Dakota County was a fluke, and that the other pro-Coleman counties will produce the expected small gains for the bad guy. In the end, this is going to be about +50-75 for Coleman, and it will come down to the absentee challenge (at least that part I agree with). I'd still peg Franken's chances at no more than 20%, because courts are always reluctant to make a decision that appears to change an election result.

What's the closest Senate election (or federal election of any kind) in history, in terms of percentage of the vote? This is going to be right there.  

One of the reason i stayed away from this site (0.00 / 0)
before the election is that I found this sort of analysis baffling. How exactly do you know what you just wrote? What indicators are you using to peg your gut to? That would at least make it something more than random numbers you are throwing out. You give some analysis regarding generalities about the courts and ballots which may or may not be specific to the state courts in question. So again, from where are you drawing these conclusions so the rest of us can have a sense of whether you speculation makes sense or not? Thanks.
[ Parent ]
Makes perfect sense to me (0.00 / 0)
You would expect generally pro-Coleman counties to produce slight gains for Coleman in recounts (because there are more chances to find valid ballots, and generally speaking recounts produce more valid undervotes than invalid overvotes, which I know from long experience). Thus, my conclusion that Dakota county results are probably a fluke. Thus, my conclusion that the other Coleman counties will produce modest gains for Coleman. The extrapolation clearly shows that, looking at just the Franken counties, he might be able to gain just enough to tie the race, so add in the Coleman counties, and you arrive at my guess at about +50 or so for Coleman.

I think if you don't believe my point about courts being reluctant to seem to reverse the voters' verdict, you haven't been paying attention to history.

One of the reasons I like this site as opposed to the Orange Idiots is that here, people seem to proceed with their heads and not just their hearts. We all WANT Franken to win, and for the results so far to suggest that's likely. But that desire in itself is kind of boring. There's a reason why Coleman's people appear to be just as confident as Franken's (although you'd never know that from reading some blogosphere sites).

[ Parent ]
okay so this is all gut (0.00 / 0)
You can certainly try to spin that gut as more than that, but its still just that.

As for the courts, they have already partially ruled in Al's favor, which is an indicator that they will eventually include the abentee ballots.

I don't care how people appear to be . That's not my question. i was asking for numerical reasoning as to your conclusion. You are guessing like the rest of us.  You just happen to be pessimistic about it, but spin it as insight.

[ Parent ]
The Lizard People voter (4.00 / 1)
should be counted for Franken.  While the voter wrote in "Lizard People" in several of the write-in slots, he/she only darkened the circle next to the write in for President, while darkening the circle next to Franken for Senate.  Given our voter intent law, I would guess the panel will see it the same way.

This thing is going to be close though.  The challenged ballots decided by the panel are going to decide it.

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone

do you know if (0.00 / 0)
the examiners look at the whole ballot to determine "intent"? For example, a voter marks "Franken" but some stray marks intrude the "Coleman" space. If the rest of the ballot of is straight DFL....does that matter to the examiners or are they to only look at the Senate portion.
[ Parent ]
Here is the document about intent (0.00 / 0)
http://www.sos.state.mn.us/doc...

There is a whole list of how to identify intent as well as precedents from past cases.

It seems that the whole ballot is used to determine patterns in markings (so as to separate stray marks from attempts to vote) but the fact that a voter chose all DFLers would not be considered sufficient to say that the voter also wanted to vote for Franken.

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone

[ Parent ]
Lizard People - Fusion Voting (4.00 / 2)
I am certain that this voter intended to vote for Al Franken, but under the Lizard People platform.

It is clear that he/she supported the platform of the Greys but chose to vote for Franken as the lesser of evils.

Until we have runoffs nationally this lack of representation will continue to manifest as a spoiler vote.

vodamusic.com

[ Parent ]
42% (0.00 / 0)
ALl i know is that 42% of the ballots have been counted and while Franken has made up ground, if he keeps it up at this pace then he'll fall short, at least until they rule on the disputed ballots.
i think it's 46 (0.00 / 0)
but if you look at the table, the Franken areas have been under-recounted compared to the Coleman areas.
[ Parent ]
Surprised (4.00 / 5)
We aren't seeing more ballots challenged by Lizard People.  Aren't his reps at the recount locations?
Maybe they are (4.00 / 1)
I googled "lizard people" and found a sci-fi type explanation: evil aliens are able to change their form and secretly rule the world.  Prominent Lizard People allegedly include George W. Bush and the British Royal family.

In that case, the Lizard People are represented by the GOP representative at the table.

Too funny.  But they left out Cheney.

[ Parent ]
Oh, well.... (0.00 / 0)
....let's not get silly about this....Cheney's a force of evil quite all by himself without any Lizard People quotient involved.
[ Parent ]
Damn (0.00 / 0)
People do some fucked-up shit with their ballots, that's for sure.
It's kinda of insane to project out how this will play out (0.00 / 0)
but I've done it too, it'll be extremely tight that's for sure.  And with so many challenges out there, it'll be the challenges that determine the final winner.  It's almost a certainty that someone will win with less than 100 votes.  

All I can say is that I hope it's Al Franken.

Might the US Senate Decide? (0.00 / 0)
People forget that the US Senate can force a new election. In 1974 they voided the New Hampshire results that proposed to seat a Republican where the count was close and contested.  John Durkin the Democrat won in the special election   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

I worked for Durkin for about 2 years.

Sam Simon
sam@simon.net

Franken Gaining But It Will Be Very Close in Minnesota | 24 comments
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