Challenged Ballots Key Predictor of County Results in Coleman-Franken Race

by: tremayne

Sun Nov 23, 2008 at 00:43


It appears to have been a good day for Senator Norm Coleman and probably was with a lead of 180 (up from 120). We won't know for sure though until mid-December when challenged ballots are examined.

The use of challenges skyrocketed today as this chart by Nate Silver shows:

And note especially the divergence of the red and blue lines as the Coleman campaign really upped their challenge quotient today and have now challenged 1,005 ballots to 977 by the Al Franken campaign.

Nate makes the case for how it is possible that Coleman is challenging clear Franken votes while Franken is challenging votes that were ruled for neither candidate. Under such a scenario, and I've heard contrary evidence, Franken would be the big vote gainer when those ballots are examined.

This is interesting: of the 66 counties that have recounted votes, only 12 of them have a candidate gaining votes without also using the same or more challenges than the opponent. The correlation between challenge difference and gained or lost votes is a very strong .64.  What this means is that, in most cases, a candidate who has gained votes in a county has also issued more challenges; their gain could be due to (temporarily) cancelling out votes for the opponent.

tremayne :: Challenged Ballots Key Predictor of County Results in Coleman-Franken Race

Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Other big factor are the absentees (0.00 / 0)


it's going to come down to those (0.00 / 0)
I can't see the justification for excluding them, but if the canvassing board tries to consider them, the Republicans will go to court for sure.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
likely Coleman using challenges to maintain vote lead (4.00 / 2)
Coleman is banking on having a lead after the recount and then challenging the count of challenged votes by judges as a race decided by the courts and not the people.   The Franken team should come up with counter measure media strategies to this tactic.

Exactly (0.00 / 0)
This may simply be a PR tactic, or a desperate measure by Coleman. With regard to challenges, Franken should reciprocate and keep the tallies even so there is no false news story about Coleman winning twice. We've all been here before.  

[ Parent ]
I want to believe Nate Silver (0.00 / 0)
but I read somewhere that Franken's people are challenging ballots with an X next to Coleman instead of the oval filled in next to Coleman.

I hope that Franken's challenges are more meritorious, but I fear that his people have upped the number of challenges solely to prevent Coleman from making big apparent gains during the recount.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.


Nate's intuition vs. what people "hear" (0.00 / 0)
Frankly, I'd even go with Nate's intuition over photographic evidence at this point.

[ Parent ]
its not a matter of belief (0.00 / 0)
The point is there is no way to tell at this point beyond anecdote. All the guessing with numbers is kind of a waste of time at this point.

[ Parent ]
The Ramsey County Attorney (0.00 / 0)
stopped the challenge mediation sessions. These mediations had kept the numbers down.
I've read that Mark Richie had ruminated about putting challenged ballots online as a way to reduce them. Perhaps we should organize a fund drive to allow this.

Donate to Open Left








Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.

As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search