| It appears to have been a good day for Senator Norm Coleman and probably was with a lead of 180 (up from 120). We won't know for sure though until mid-December when challenged ballots are examined. The use of challenges skyrocketed today as this chart by Nate Silver shows: 
And note especially the divergence of the red and blue lines as the Coleman campaign really upped their challenge quotient today and have now challenged 1,005 ballots to 977 by the Al Franken campaign. Nate makes the case for how it is possible that Coleman is challenging clear Franken votes while Franken is challenging votes that were ruled for neither candidate. Under such a scenario, and I've heard contrary evidence, Franken would be the big vote gainer when those ballots are examined. This is interesting: of the 66 counties that have recounted votes, only 12 of them have a candidate gaining votes without also using the same or more challenges than the opponent. The correlation between challenge difference and gained or lost votes is a very strong .64. What this means is that, in most cases, a candidate who has gained votes in a county has also issued more challenges; their gain could be due to (temporarily) cancelling out votes for the opponent. |