| First off, it isn't a fait accompli just yet, because there is the technical but vital minor detail that Stephen Harper is still Prime Minister, and until the Governor General fires him, or Parliament passes a vote of non-confidence, this historic agreement between three opposition parties is just so much paper and could fall apart in a flash.
What Happened?
Harper started this by overreaching. In the weeks prior, his government has been sticking to a Hooverism line on maintaining the federal budget surpluses, including the finance minister speculating about selling off some major federal assets.
His government proposed an "economic statement", a type of budget bill. Mixed in there were a few rather contentious items including restrictions on federal civil service unions striking and an end to a $1.95 per-vote public election funding program for political parties.
Killing the per-vote public funding program was a blatant partisan electoral move by the Conservatives, who have the best fund raising apparatus (big surprise, the party of the rich has an easier time garnering donations). The program costs about C$30M a year, so it clearly was not large enough to have anything to do with the government belt-tightening supposedly needed in this crisis (Canada's Federal government budget runs about C$200B).
After the election, pretty much all observers expected that Harper and the Conservatives would have a free hand to govern as they saw fit, since the last thing the Liberals would do is bring down the government and go into another election under the now discredited leadership of Dion.
Well they miscalculated. Badly. The latter part was true, but in a parliamentary system, holding elections after the government falls is not technically required. Harper went for the brass ring, trying to gut the funding of all his opposition under the cover of the crisis (disaster electioneering), when the Liberals supposedly wouldn't stop him and an amazing thing happened: the cornered prey turned to fight.
Once launched, the idea took a life of its own, initially fed by the increasingly desperate flailing of the government as they blustered and then backed down on their proposals. All of which only fed the confidence of the opposition.
The Deal
Read it here. The Prime Minister and Finance Minister will be Liberals, there will be 24 cabinet ministers, and the NDP get 6. The NDP and Liberals will sit side by side on the Government benches in the House, and will still caucus separately. It will expire in 2011.
As for the separatist party, the Bloc Quebecois, they will not be part of the government, though they have signed an accord agreeing to support the government for 18 months.
What happens Next
This can go two ways. The three opposition leaders have now sent this letter to the Governor General, asking her to dismiss PM Harper and ask Dion to form a government. Formally, she doesn't actually have to wait for the no-confidence vote in Parliament.
There is some fear Harper will "prorogue" Parliament (which means suspend it without dissolving it), so he can remain as PM until the next session in the new year. It turns out though that it is the Governor General who really does this when the PM asks. Now that she has a letter in hand from leaders representing a majority in Parliament saying they have lost faith in the current government, I don't think she can agree to prorogue. She may wait for the formal vote of no-confidence this Monday though.
She also has the option of just calling a new election, but no one seems to think she will do that. Normally this decision isn't an issue because if a Government has fallen, there is never another party that could conceivably claim the support of parliament anyway to form a viable government. Since she has a signed accord representing a majority, she has no formal reason to call an election. So will she wait for Monday's vote, or dismiss Harper sooner and give Dion the nod? This is one of those rare instances where the normally ceremonial GG has some real decision making power. The Conservatives are in panic-mode, apparently they have arranged for protests across the country tomorrow, and if given a few more days to influence public opinion and otherwise ratfuck, they may find a way to squeak out of this. Or not. I don't see how any opposition leader backs down with any self-respect at this point.
Fallout
Anyone's guess. Canada has not seen this sort of coalition at the Federal level, and very rarely at the Provincial. We had what was called the "Unity" government during WWI, but apparently that was more a bunch of Liberals defecting to the Conservatives for the duration of the War. At other points, the NDP have propped up Liberal minority governments, but never in a true coalition with NDP holding cabinet seats.
This is a tremendous gamble, because the public might decide they despise it and reward the Conservatives with that majority they want so badly. A million things can go wrong, as this is really a three way coalition despite the Bloc not being formally in the government, it will be very complicated to keep it together.
Meanwhile as wags are saying, Harper will go down as one of Canada's most successful politicians - first having united the right to become Prime Minister, and now having united the left to depose him. Dion gets his chance to be Prime Minister, and the Liberal leadership race takes on a new vitality as the winner will in some likelihood become PM as well as party leader (assuming this government is still standing in 6 months).
For Harper, it may mean his eventual ruin because apparently the decision to kill the public party funding was his, and against the advice of his cabinet. Already some members of his party were noticed not applauding when he stood up first during Question Period today. Not a great sign for him.
Oh, he may also be in some trouble for releasing a recording of an NDP confidential conference call that a Conservative MP phoned into and secretly recorded. This might have been a crime, but it certainly added a flavour of Watergate to the whole thing.
So that's Canada. Boring old Canada. |
