Georgia Runoff Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 19:29

This is a thread for returns in the Georgia Senate race. Keep in mind that the early returns will probably, just like on November 4th, be from more pro-Chambliss areas.

47% reporting
Chambliss: 62.3%
Martin: 37.7%

Update: Martin is underperforming November 4th by about 8%:

I have a spreadsheet comparing results by county between the runoff and the general election. Martin appears to be underperforming by about 8%. It looks like it will be a short night, unfortunately.

Chambliss will win. It will probably be called very soon. Damn. Much now rests on Minnesota, including the Employee Free Choice Act.

Update 2: A more optimistic projection:

Martin doing 3.2% worse than his 48.5% share of the two-way vote on Nov 4th. That means he's at like 45%.

Hopefully a lot of Absentee/Early Voting in the numbers. Again no democratic counties are in - with extremely low turnout, moderate turnout in those counties can win it for Martin.

Update 3: The numbers are really bad, and Martin is underperforming everywhere. Chambliss will win, and I will stop updating.

Chris Bowers :: Georgia Runoff Thread

Tags: Saxby Chambliss, Jim Martin, Senate 2008, GA-Sen, (All Tags)

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Georgia Runoff Thread | 15 comments

I know that the democratic strongholds haven't come in yet... (0.00 / 0)

...but, I'm afraid that this is going to be an ugly night... Without Obama stopping by, his voters really didn't care to show up... After all, if the leader of your party disrespects your state, they will show their displeasure by voting against or not showing up...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:02:18 AM UTC

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really? (0.00 / 0)

After all, if the leader of your party disrespects your state, they will show their displeasure by voting against or not showing up...

what did he do, insult georgia's mom?

by: seabrook @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:19:19 AM UTC

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Georgia's mom is so ugly (4.00 / 2)

she signed up for an ugly contest, and they said "No Professionals."

by: Jason C. @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 02:38:48 AM UTC

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I honestly don't think Barack would've put Martin over the top (4.00 / 1)

And I certainly haven't gotten the vibe from any of my fellow GA voters that he "disrespected" us. Barack didn't carry GA, and it would've taken a small miracle, perhaps a more vibrant candidate, and the momentum of Nov 4th (minus the third party spoiler) to pull it off.

Martin is a great guy and did a great job on what was always going to be an uphill batter.

by: HS @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 02:32:42 AM UTC

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Chris, I wouldn't get your hopes up about EFCA.... (0.00 / 0)

...GM's troubles and the media's anti-union tirade the last month (with absolutely zero pushback) has made EFCA dead in the water for now... It will come up again, but probably not until after the (hopefully successful) midterms

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:08:00 AM UTC

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No votes were flipped (0.00 / 0)

Blanche Lincoln said she was wavering, but now votes were actually reported flipped. If Franken wins, EFCA still passes.

by: Chris Bowers @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:23:46 AM UTC

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No votes have flipped... yet... (0.00 / 0)

...Just wait until the business community starts pushing their weight in the Senate.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:34:40 AM UTC

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That worked so well (4.00 / 1)

In the 2008 elections. How did their candidates do again?

by: Chris Bowers @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:35:37 AM UTC

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Hey, I'm on your side! (4.00 / 1)

I hope you are right... If we can keep our caucus together, we can probably push a guy like Voinovich who has bucked his party's establishment and become the new savior of the U.S. Auto industry... I guess he does want to run again in 2010.

Reid wants this bill... union support is key to his re-election, even if Obama hopes that it will just go away.

I still think the prospects are pretty good, but this Gm thing really put a damper on any quick action. We're going to need to see some improvement in the manufacturing economy to show that unions aren't hindering ecnomic growth like the media keeps saying.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:52:09 AM UTC

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Why does Obama .. (0.00 / 0)

"Just want it to go away"? ... if he didn't want to make hard decisions .. why run?

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:58:10 AM UTC

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Plus, it's not really that hard of a decision (4.00 / 1)

EFCA is relatively popular, and the people who hate it are the rabid anti-unionists who will never cast a ballot for a Democrat anyway. Big Business of course hates it but Labor's candidate won, so they can go screw.

by: Jason C. @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 02:44:48 AM UTC

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Err.. (4.00 / 1)

Don't make unsubstantiated accusations please, that's for the traditional media to do. how do you know Obama wants this to go away? He made statements in support of it and won the election.

by: Barry @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 02:40:24 AM UTC

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He's backed off of those statments as of late... (0.00 / 0)

Mostly pundits are saying this, so who really knows what's up... I don't know how he really feels, but this GM thing has really hurt the image of unions in the short term. The media has been all out on a union-busting quest, and I have yet to see one UAW representative on TV making the case for them...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 03:33:51 AM UTC

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Obama looking pretty smart right about now (4.00 / 2)

A lot of people were clamoring for him to go down to Georgia and campaign for Martin, but if the margin ends up being what it looks like it's going to be, this race was unwinnable, Obama or no Obama, and if Obama had gone down there it would have been a pointless high-profile defeat.

by: Jason C. @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 03:26:57 AM UTC

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Yep (0.00 / 0)

Plus, I suppose the silver lining is that the Republicans poured $7 million into the runoff while the DSCC spent a fraction of that.

Although I don't really go for the moral victory thing. Oh well, can't win 'em all.

Saxby Chambliss

by: bosdcla14 @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 04:00:16 AM UTC

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