Evening Round-up Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 19:24


Some items of note on a Wednesday evening:

  • The Canadian governmental crisis is heightening. Tonight, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will address the nation, followed by Liberal opposition leader Stephane Dion. Tomorrow, widespread protests on both sides are expected as Harper will probably meet with the Governor-General, the Queen's representative in Canada, in order to ask for parliament to be shut down for the rest of the year. The goal is to avoid a no confidence vote next Monday that, right now, would pass and make Dion Prime Minister. Given that the opposition had earlier asked the Governor-General to remove Harper as prime minister, this marks, I'm pretty sure, the only time since World War Two when the representative of a monarch will have real deciding power over the fate of a G-7 nation. Crazy stuff, and absolutely fascinating. For more information on the recent developments, read Daniel De Groot's excellent primer.

  • Lisa Jackson seems to be the frontrunner for the EPA. I think this is a very solid pick, both because she currently heads up an auction-based effort to reduce greenhouse gases, and because she is currently slated to be New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's Chief of Staff.  Auctioning is the way to go, and I implicitly trust Corzine. Absent any outcry of environmental activists, she seems like a very good person to head the EPA.

  • Yesterday, Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL), announced he would not run for re-election in 2010. Now, it appears that Senators Charles Grassley (R-IA) and George Voinovich (R-OH) will follow suit. Given that Republicans already had to defend 19 seats to the Democrats 16, given that Iowa is now a very blue state, and given that Ohio has been getting a lot bluer lately, our Senate prospects look very good in 2010. The only way we fail to gain Senate seats in two years is if we really screw up the federal government. We can't blow this one.

  • Michael Moore proposes having the federal government just buy the big three, which would actually cost less than the bailout. Additionally, he suggests firing all the executives, and hiring a bunch of new, green-oriented people to run the companies. Works for me. Not only is it cheaper, not only does the government get a real ownership stake for its investment, but we can avoid rewarding those who have failed at those companies. I know it won't happen, because we are not quite at that point in the Overton window yet. However, we are actually getting kind of close to the point where that idea would become widespread and popular.

  • Syracuse is ranked third in the RPI. Maybe we The 'Cuse is finally back in the House this year. If only Dante Green had stayed around, we Syracuse could have won the whole thing.
 This is an open thread. Tell the world what is on your mind.
Chris Bowers :: Evening Round-up Thread

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Evening Round-up Thread | 37 comments
"I know it won't happen, because we are not quite at that point in the Overton window yet." (4.00 / 1)
famous last words :)

Where do I sign up?

AIG (4.00 / 1)
We bought 79% of AIG without chanfing management and they continue to drain us even more.  Management has got to go.  At that point, we will make a lot of money off this deal.
[ Parent ]
Did we buy 79% of AIG? (0.00 / 0)
Or did we give AIG a loan with 79% of AIG as collateral? I don't remember.
[ Parent ]
Guess your right (0.00 / 0)
And that's even worse.
[ Parent ]
Don't look now (0.00 / 0)
'Cuse is about to lose to Cornell.

Signed,

A Hoya

;-)

'Cuse comes to Memphis this year, Chris (0.00 / 0)
And that should be an excellent game. Wish Rose had stuck around Memphis, but, that falls under not-in-a-million years.
[ Parent ]
Of course (0.00 / 0)
I make the above comment. And the Orange go on a 10-0 run. Should have known better.
[ Parent ]
Well, far above Cayuga's waters (0.00 / 0)
If Cornell beats 'Cuse, then perhaps the water in the gorges are about to reverse direction...

http://www.alumni.cornell.edu/...  

[ Parent ]
you spoke too soon! (0.00 / 0)
I was reading this thread on my iphone at halftime from the dome.  It's always nice to see my orangemen (I still haven't gotten used to calling them "the orange") get some recognition.  I was in DC for the SU - Georgetown game last year, it was heartbreaking.  Hopefully we'll do a bit better this time.  I'll be disappointed with anything less than the sweet sixteen with this group of kids.  
[ Parent ]
Re: Michael Moore thing (4.00 / 1)
3 billion dollars to do a hostile takeover of GM? Are you sure? That sounds awfully low-- it seems to imply Michael Bloomberg or Sergey Brin could just walk over and buy the place now if they felt like it.

Even if I'm not clear on whether it works though I do like Moore's piece because I wish we could see more kind of lateral thinking on this crisis. Like, I actually thought that Romney's "government-managed bankruptcy" idea was an interesting one, other than the whole thing where Romney was only putting forward the proposal as a bait-and-switch for a different plan that basically consists of "destroy the UAW". I never did figure out why nobody on the left was putting forward a version of Romney's plan where instead of the government managing the bankruptcy in such a way as to deunionize the auto industry the government managed the bankruptcy in such a way as to preserve jobs, prevent foreign selloffs, force "green" mandates etc. (though there's probably some perfectly good reason I'm just missing).

I do think it's kind of funny how Moore's proposal has that kind of weird bipolar thing that seems to infect most liberal writing about the automakers, in that in the same piece he excoriates the Big Three CEOs as the scum of the earth, and also gets all hurt and offended that when the Big Three CEOs went to Congress Congress acted mean to them.

It's based on market capitalization: (4.00 / 2)
http://finance.google.com/fina...

The total value of all GM stock is about 3B. Ford's a bargain at about 200M. However, any takeover rumor would, naturally, send that upward.

Further GM is loosing literally more than a billion dollars in cash a month (-38B in 2007, -2.5B in Q32008). You'd have to factor that into your costs. Keeping the lights on is kind of expensive.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

[ Parent ]
Buying out the big 3 (4.00 / 3)
Man, people are not very worldly on economics yet, eh?

Not only is it cheaper, not only does the government get a real ownership stake for its investment, but we can avoid rewarding those who have failed at those companies.

It's cheaper, yes, to acquire all outstanding stock (if sellers could be convinced to sell at current bargain-basement prices) as the total market capitalization of GM is like 3B and Ford is about 300M. Chrysler is privately held, but maybe Cerberus would let it go.

But even assuming you could acquire the companies for peanuts, the point is all three of these companies are hemmoraging humongous amounts of cash. You could acquire them, but then you'd have to keep them running, which will cost billions of dollars a month until/if their business rebounds.

It's not a terrible idea per-se, but it's not necessarily cheaper than the proposed bridge loans (esp given that these are loans, not handouts).

Me | My Work | Future Majority

Well I mean I dunno (4.00 / 1)
You could acquire them, but then you'd have to keep them running, which will cost billions of dollars a month until/if their business rebounds.

Would it be more or fewer billions of dollars a month than it costs to be in Iraq? Maybe in perspective it's not so bad :P

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 1)
On top of that, would it be fewer than the $700 billion we are busy shoveling out the door to Wall Street? Even to keep the lights on? Almost certainly.

Frankly, buying them would give us all a stake in a 21st century government backed race to energy independence, if the gov't had the stake in the next generation of cars.  

[ Parent ]
That's debatable (4.00 / 1)
That's a valid point, and you may well be right.

But it's just sloppy to say that buying the companies outright would cost less than the currently suggested bridge loan.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

[ Parent ]
Where do people get that Ford number? ... (0.00 / 0)
Ford's market cap is 6.81 billion ... not the 300 million you claim .. so Ford is actually worth twice as much as GM
[ Parent ]
You're right (4.00 / 1)
I was looking at the wrong symbol:

http://finance.google.com/fina...

In my rush, I was looking at Ford Industries, the luggage maker.

Even though GM is a much bigger enterprise, it's got lower market capitalization, because it's got a much worse outlook than Ford, which was totally dependent on high-margin SUV sales to stay afloat.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

[ Parent ]
Gah (0.00 / 0)
Should be:

Ford, which wasn't totally dependent on high-margin SUV sales to stay afloat.

Me | My Work | Future Majority

[ Parent ]
Jeb Bush (0.00 / 0)
I assume he would be going after the Mel Martinez seat.  Do the Dems have a candidate that could beat Jeb?  Is this the signal Jeb being groomed for 2012?
Just Found A Story (0.00 / 0)
The Hill reports:  Bush Florida candidacy would thin field

Politicians from both sides of the aisle said the former governor of Florida and brother of President Bush is popular enough to scare away Republican and Democratic challengers before many really consider a bid for the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R).

"It has Jeb's name on it," said Bob Butterworth, the state's former Democratic four-term attorney general and secretary of the Department of Children and Families. "He has the potential to scare away people on both sides of the aisle."

Cult of celebrity, eh...  

[ Parent ]
It'd be a tough race (0.00 / 0)
But someone like state CFO Alex Sink or Rep. Ron Klein could make it a race.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
RPI ranking (0.00 / 0)
The same RPI has North Carolina ranked thirteenth which tells me all I need to know about the RPI.  Check out KenPom.com ('Cuse is 29th) or Sagarin Index ('Cuse is 10th).  They're both much more accurate predictors than the RPI, which is hopelessly outdated.  No doubt Nate Silver would agree!

GO HEELS!!!  BEAT MSU!

It may be outdated (0.00 / 0)
But the selection committee uses the RPI, and not the other two. So, the RPI matters, and the other ones don't. It probably shouldn't be that way, but it is that way.

Anyway, losing to Cornell by five at the half. Hmmm....

[ Parent ]
True about the selection committee (0.00 / 0)
But I'm not convinced that they don't sneak a look at the others now and then.  

I think 'Cuse gets a win tonight, but as you no doubt know, even a 'W' against an inferior opponent like Cornell will kill your RPI rating overnight.  As you say, it probably shouldn't be that way...

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but Syracuse is ranked #16 nationally in the AP (0.00 / 0)
And the selection committee definitely takes a look at that.

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[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced that Voinovich is not running... (4.00 / 2)
...he's doing more work on the Big 3 loans than most democrats, and if he gets credit for that, then he's a shoe-in in 2010.  What most coastal democrats refuse to understand is that manufacturing is really important here... and the few republicans that are doing the right thing for their constituents will be rewarded.  It's a shame that many democrats outside these states refuse to help some of their own.  We vote, too... and we turned Ohio blue!  Don't eat birthday cake while we drown in our economic Katrina!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
I hate when progressives (4.00 / 3)
Say "Fire all the Execs, it's their fault" or anything to that effect. Stop, it makes us sound GOP-level ignorant. While most of GM's crew is old hands, the leaders of Ford and Chrysler have both been in the industry about 2 years and it's silly to lay the companies' long-term issues solely on them. Ford's CEO and Bill Ford Jr have been leading a Green effort at Ford, including not just more Hybrids and EVs but Green facilities. What message do we sent if we call for their heads because we couldn't be bothered to do our homework on them?

My response to Republicans who told me to leave the US if I didn't like the 2004 Election results:
"To hell with that, we're taking this place back!"
Agreed (0.00 / 0)
GM's management actually is terrible, and they could use new leaders. But Ford's future plan looks pretty good and I think Bill Ford Jr is doing a decent job. I don't know a whole lot about Chrysler.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
Bill Ford Jr. .. (0.00 / 0)
hasn't been CEO for a while .. if he was doing such a great job though .. why hasn't the stock broken $15 in like forever?  Ford is in a little better shape than GM .. not much though
[ Parent ]
If we're using Stock Price (0.00 / 0)
as the ultimate arbiter we're in bad shape. Alan Mulally , Ford's current CEO, has put Ford in a position where it returned to profitability just before the financialpocalypse. And he's gotten Ford to the point where it doesn't need the Bailout to survive. They want access to the money as insurance, and they want the other Bigs to get the money so the shared supplier base doesn't disintegrate.

I'm not saying they're the fantastic dream team or anything, I'm merely pointing out that calling for all their heads en masse is the sort of broad-brush crap that the GOP uses when painting Unions as universally corrupt and anti-American.

My response to Republicans who told me to leave the US if I didn't like the 2004 Election results:
"To hell with that, we're taking this place back!"

[ Parent ]
He's chair now (0.00 / 0)
and has a major say in it. Turning around a major car company after decades of mismanagement is not easy. Having a environmentalist and smart businessman running Ford makes me a little more confident in their future.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
Donte' Greene (0.00 / 0)
As a Sacramento Kings fan, I've recently learned that the correct spelling of Mr Greene's name is as above, (& particularly, please note the apostrophe).  
1st for G-7, but remember G-20 & commonwealth nation Australia ... (4.00 / 1)
"Well may we say, 'God save the queen,' because nothing will save the Governor-General!" -- Ghough Whitlam upon his dismissal as Australian Prime Minister in 1975

VISA is Hungry! http://www.funnyordie.com/vide...
I don't buy (0.00 / 0)
that Grassley and Voinovitch are not running. If that's true though it's fantastic news and both would become fairly easy pickups even in a neutral/negative climate with the right recruits (Vilsack or Braley in Iowa and Ryan or Sutton in Ohio)

Lisa Jackson would be a fantastic pick.

Also, Canada is crazy, eh.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

The Governor General couldn't get away with dissolving Parliament for the rest of the year, ya? (0.00 / 0)
That sounds really damn close to a coup to me.  It's reminiscent of the kind of crap that Henry VIII pulled with the British Parliament.
not sure (0.00 / 0)
Almost anything she does at this point will violate a norm.  She is supposed to obey the Prime Minister, but when his advice is anti-democratic, does that norm still apply?  Does the letter signed by the opposition leaders give her a clear sign that Parliament has lost confidence in the PM, or does she need the actual vote of no-confidence?  

Someone compared Harper's move to Cromwell which is a pretty interesting historical analogy.  

[ Parent ]
Kind of hard to respect Canada (0.00 / 0)
when the freaking Queen still has a say in what goes on there. For God's sake, cut the apron strings already. What are the Canadians scared of? Do they think the U.K. is going to invade them?  
Evening Round-up Thread | 37 comments
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