Jeb Bush Has His Weaknesses

by: Matt Stoller

Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 20:44


I grew up in Miami, so I remember Jeb Bush's political runs for Governor in 1994 and 1998.  In 1994, there were bumper stickers plastered all over cars in Miami that simply said 'Jeb!', but he ended up losing a very narrow race to a popular good old boy Democrat, Lawton Chiles.  That was a good year for Republicans, and it was shocking that Bush got knocked by a relatively unaccomplished incumbent in a change year tilting towards conservativism nationally.  In 1998, Jeb won the election against a weak opponent, Buddy McKay, and triumphed in 2002 again against a relatively weak opponent, Bill McBride.  Both times he was perceived as a moderate and highly competent Governor in a relatively apathetic state, and he's always able to shield his conservative views from public view because he's in a state level position.

This track record has been compounded by the weirdness of Florida, which is Alabama in the north of the state, Cuba and New York in the south of the state, and the exurbs in the I-4 corridor in the Disney middle.  Jeb's conservative politics play well in the north of the state, and have been pretty irrelevant elsewhere.  Should he run for Senate, Jeb Bush will have an entirely different experience.  If his opponent is Alex Sink, my guess is that he's going to have a really tough time.  Sink is a wonderful and highly respected former banker who is now the state's chief financial officer.  She's a very very strong opponent, and Bush's background as a semi-corrupt businessman who participated in a scheme to, get this, sell water pumps in Nigeria, will emerge.

Remember, the Bush family is immensely corrupt, but that doesn't emerge unless there's actual scrutiny.  Jeb has never been subjected to any such scrutiny, but it's hard to imagine that this situation can continue if he gets a serious contender.  The Bush family is in disgrace, and I don't see how that changes in just two years, especially with the rumors flying around about Jeb's personal behavior and business shenanigans.

2010 will probably not be a good year for Democrats, but just because Jeb Bush is popular now doesn't mean that he's necessarily a strong candidate in two years.
Matt Stoller :: Jeb Bush Has His Weaknesses

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Jeb Bush Has His Weaknesses | 22 comments
Why would 2010 not be a good year for dems? (4.00 / 1)
Most people think otherwise....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
off year elections (4.00 / 1)
are usually not good for the incumbent party.
[ Parent ]
Usually.... (4.00 / 3)
...but we've got a few advantages, especially in Senate races... they have to defend way more than we do......

And if we do things right, we can pull off another 2002, but this time for our side!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Common cry (4.00 / 1)
I can see the common cry from both the right and left:  
  Remember Terry Schiavo

The right will claim Jeb's efforts to save the poor woman was the christian thing to do, and will praise Jeb's getting his knees dirty caressing the right's genitalia in that fiasco.

The left will deride his interfering with a family and medical matter.  I hope they bring out his buddy the doctor senator who diagnosed Ms. Schiavo via videotape.

For Florida and the country's sake, I hope the memory of big bro (pun intended) is long.

2010 no good? (4.00 / 1)
Everything I've read says that 2010 should be at worst a status-quo election, and at best the Dems may pick up a few more seats as there are more vulnerable Republican senators than Democrat senators.
Depends (0.00 / 0)
on the economy. If by the midterms we're not only out of the recession but experiencing solid economic growth with unemployment back closer to 4.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
If we get a top flight candidate .. (4.00 / 1)
don't you think everyone and their sister will be gunning for the Jebster? .. Everyone will want to stomp the Bush family into the ground for good ... is there anyone here .. who won't give money to Jeb's opponent in '10 .. provided the opponent is top flight?
I agree (0.00 / 0)
he's pretty popular to start out with, but his only real tough election he lost.

I think he'd lose a tough election narrowly unless it's a very Republican year. But one of the problems in 02 was that we had a very bitter primary with McBride facing off vs Janet Reno. Having Sink (who's McBride's wife btw) jump in would probably clear the field and avoid a nasty primary.  

I'm not totally convinced Bush will run, he's very much a executive type and his wife isn't going to be enthusiastic. We'll see.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

The Bush name is fried (4.00 / 2)
it's fucked, burnt, and over.  

It's like asking someone to vote for someone named
Edward Holocaust Cancer.

Adolf Holocaust Cancer.... (0.00 / 0)
...actually....

But that said, don't discount Jeb Bush either.  Go into any race against him knowing that you will have to earn the win.

[ Parent ]
Hehe! However, it's not the name, it's the relatives that hurt him. (0.00 / 0)
If it was only the name that matters, someone with the middle name "Hussein" would have had no chance to win the presidency, right?
:-/
[ Parent ]
"Bill McBride", an interesting guy (0.00 / 0)
I just noticed, after checking Wikipedia, that he is the hubby of "Alex" Sink! Another political dynasty starting here? However, he isn't the same Bill McBride who runs Calculated Risk, or is he?
He's not the same ... (4.00 / 1)
at least I don't think so .. the Calculated Risk guys spends tons of time in California(talking about his various hiking trips) .. which leaves me to believe he lives there(though I am not 100% sure)
[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
He ran for Governor in 2002 and is a lawyer at the State's largest law firm.  He beat Janet Reno in the primary, and ran about even with Jeb in 2002 until the debates.  McBride was awful in the debates, and Jeb! went on to win reasonably easily.  
[ Parent ]
i have one response (0.00 / 0)
bring it on!
"it's hard to imagine" (4.00 / 1)
that Jeb will get a wild card from the media if he announces his candidacy? Uh, well, I'm sceptical. It WAS hard to imagine that Dubya would get through the primary with such a low level of attention to the family's history, agreed. But it DID happen. So, why should it be any different with Jeb???
I wasn't at all shocked that Lawton Chiles won (0.00 / 0)
While it's true a hostile legislature hamstrung Chiles during his 1st term as governor, he had a history of achievement as a state legislator and US senator, so he wasn't unaccomplished in the eyes of most Floridians. Plus, Bush ran an awful, transparently dishonest campaign. And Chiles beat him like a rented mule in the debates. I'll never forget how pole-axed Bush looked when Chiles invoked the "he-coon" metaphor. Priceless.

Aside from that quibble, I agree with you. Bush always pretended to be more moderate than he actually was. The Democratic party is still weak here, but a good opponent should be able to kick Bush to the curb, particularly given the toxic association with his brother.

"never accepted contributions of more than $100" (0.00 / 0)
http://www.law.ufl.edu/news/pd...

What a guy, a real Democratic hero, that Lawton Chiles! Never heard of him before, but I'm deeply impressed from what I found by googling him now. And Jeb Bush followed in the footsteps of that great guy? Looks like they were several sizes to large for him.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks. (0.00 / 0)
I don't know Florida, but the panic in the Liberal Blogosphere has been catching.

Glad to hear another perspective.

Alex Cink (0.00 / 0)
is NOT running for either Governor or Senator in 2010.  

The economy in Florida is in shambles.  The St Pete Times on Sunday did a great piece about the financial crisis in State Government here.  Florida's population growth has slowed in the last few years here, and this is a very different state in some ways than it was in the middle part of this decade.

For what it's worth, I always thought Jeb was a better pol than his brother: certainly he is smarter than the shrub.  He will be tought to beat given the lack of Democrats who have won statewide here (the dems have won two statewide races since 2002, and one of those was against Kathleen Harris).  

Sink has been walking back that statement (4.00 / 1)
She declared that she was staying where she was before Martinez declared he wasn't running for re-election. See here

What do we actually know about her? She seems to have done a decent job as CFO, but she didn't get elected by a huge margin last time and we know little about her beliefs, so the rush to get behind her candidacy has surprised me.


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Jeb Bush Has His Weaknesses | 22 comments
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