Trillion Dollar Stimulus--GOP Economists Join In, But How To Pull It Off?

by: Paul Rosenberg

Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 17:49

Note: I began writing this before Matt posted his diary.  Below, I look at the short-term problem of how to START spending the money quickly and effectively.  Obviously, the long-term challenge is just as great.  We have to do both.

Conservative hacks may still be attacking the New Deal, but GOP economists, not so much.  Support for a massive stimulus is bipartisan now amongst economists, Bloomberg reports:

Calls for $1 Trillion Stimulus Package Grow as Economy Tumbles

By Rich Miller and Matt Benjamin

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The one thing that isn't shrinking in the U.S. economy these days is the size of the stimulus package that financial experts say is needed to turn it around.

With automobile sales dropping, payrolls plunging and manufacturing contracting, economists from across the political spectrum are raising the ante on how much the government should lay out. Some are now calling for at least a $1 trillion boost.

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor who was an adviser to Republican presidential candidate John McCain, and Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner who served in President Bill Clinton's White House, are among those who say President- elect Barack Obama should push for a package of that size.

"They need a stimulus of $500-to-$600 billion a year for at least two years to counter what is going to be a collapse in consumption," said Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

That number may grow.

Once again, we find, reality really does have a left-wing bias.

I wonder what !Joe The !Plumber thinks?

Krugman's worried that we won't be able to spend it fast enough, and he's got a point.  But one thing we can do is bail out state governments, so that their spending cuts don't further exacerbate the problem, and slash social services that are all the more necessary during a recession. (Now back-dated 12 months!)

The National Conference of State Legislatures reports today:

New National Survey Reveals Escalating Budget Crisis for States
NCSL report provides comprehensive look at two-year budget period identifying nearly $137 billion in budget gaps.

DENVER - States, which already have closed $40 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2009 budget gaps, face at least an additional $97 billion they must close over the next 18 to 24 months, according to a national report issued today by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

NCSL said the news will pose difficult decisions for state legislators across the nation as they prepare for the 2009 legislative sessions.

"These budget gaps are approaching those seen in the last recession, which were the worst since World War II, and show every sign of growing larger," says William T. Pound, NCSL's executive director.

State Budget Update: November 2008, a survey of the nation's state legislative fiscal officers, reports that states face a $32 billion budget gap after already closing a $40 billion gap since the current fiscal year began. Their projections for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1 for most states, reveal another $65 billion gap.

Fifteen states are forecasting double-digit gaps in FY 2010. The largest are in Arizona (24.2 percent), New York (20 percent), California (18 percent), Wisconsin (17.2 percent), Minnesota (14.7) and Kansas (14.5 percent).

"While the data we collected from state legislative fiscal officers are pretty sobering, our discussions with legislative leaders tell us that they expect the problem to only get worse," Pound says.

Massive federal aid to state and local governments would seem to be a no-brainer, given the circumstances.  

To repeat: reality really does have a left-wing bias.

In fact, as Robert in Monterey noted at Calitics, SEIU is already advancing a solid proposal along these lines in the GOP-terrorized state of California:

SEIU's Realistic Budget
by: Robert in Monterey

Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 17:25:02 PM PST

The best way to fight a bad idea is to propose a better alternative, and the SEIU California State Council has delivered. Today they proposed their own budget solution which would raise $14 billion in new revenue and seek $15 billion in federal assistance. Some details:

    SEIU's budget proposal includes a limited expansion of the state's Vehicle License Fee (VLF), which would protect middle-class families by exempting the first $20,000 in vehicle value; restoration of the upper income tax brackets enacted by Governors Reagan and Wilson, adoption of Governor Schwarzenegger's oil severance and alcohol tax proposals and the Governor's proposal to broaden the sales tax to include discretionary services such as entertainment.

    SEIU's proposed federal stimulus package would get our people back to work now and invest in long-term economic success for California families by:

    • Increasing the federal match for California healthcare dollars
    • Kick-starting hospital retrofits and local government infrastructure projects
    • Funding federal special education obligations
    • Investing in workforce development and a competitive resurgence by restoring worker training and opening more seats in our public colleges and universities.

This is exactly the kind of budget solution that a state facing a severe recession needs. Republicans are hell-bent on implementing Herbert Hoover's reckless policies of austerity and deflation, wanting to destroy government services and throw tens of thousands of people out of work.

SEIU's more progressive plan recognizes that California can't do it alone - that as in the 1930s, federal assistance is necessary to help the states stabilize and grow the economy. Health care and education in particular are vital to preserve during these hard times.

Not only are the contents of SEIU's budget proposal sound and progressive, the fact that SEIU has stepped up and made this proposal is a hopeful sign that progressive forces outside of government are indeed starting to mobilize and speak out in the sorts of ways that will be increasingly necessary in the year ahead.

"More, please!" as they say in the trade.

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