Dang.... (0.00 / 0)

...even California loses an electoral vote?  Texas gains 4??  I guess the Palin/regional party GOP strategy isn't so bad for them at all!  Especially if they can manage to win Florida...

the only bright spot is Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona (which we probably will win this time around... we'll need it to make up for the losses elsewhere)...


REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

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by: lord_mike @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 15:57:05 PM CST

Some very silly errors in that scholars and rouges piece (4.00 / 1)

Tim Pawlenty was rumored to be on the short-list of Obama's VP picks and therefore could take a post in his administration? Huh?

Gov. Blanco is still gov. in LA and McCain only won LA 51-49? Huh?

Matt Blunt will not be the gov. of MO next year.

Mike Easley will not be gov. of NC next year.

Ted Strickland was most certainly not a prominent early supporter of Obama.

Plus they miss the overall point that except in those Democratic states where we are maxed out in terms of Dem reps (e.g. MA and now probably NY), losing a house seat usually does NOT mean a loss for that party. PA, OH, and MI all lost seats after the 2000 census and with GOP control of the state legislatures we saw how that actually resulted in huge gains for their party.

Not a very scholarly analysis.

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by: adamterando @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 16:02:58 PM CST

After the 2000 redistricting (4.00 / 3)

The Pennsylvania House delegation went from 11-10 Republican to 13-6 Republican. The state lost two House seats overall, but thanks to the Republican gerrymander, the Democrats lost four seats and the Republicans gained two.

Similar things happened in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, all big states where the Republicans controlled the redistricting process.

Redistricting can drastically change the House map of a state, regardless of whether or not the state is gaining or losing seats. That analysis was pretty crappy.

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by: NR @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 16:13:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Also (4.00 / 3)

For the first time in 40 years, the Democrats will control the White House during redistricting. That's significant. The Obama Justice Department might be able to prevent the Republicans from pulling too many shenanigans in Voting Rights Act states.

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by: NR @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 16:15:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Why was this troll-rated? (0.00 / 0)

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by: NR @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 17:30:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

shouldn't have been (0.00 / 0)

mouse click mistake

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by: adamterando @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 19:34:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Where oh where have you been? (0.00 / 0)

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by: zelt @ Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 00:36:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Kilroy should have done better (0.00 / 0)

Everyone here was excited for her and it was hers to lose. I am sure the DSCC wanted her to run a very traditional campaign. I got plenty of fliers from her. She fell into the JHOES trap in which she just listed issues she was going to bring 'change' on.

We won the Battle. Now the Real Fight for Change Begins. Join MoveOn.org and fight for progressive change.  

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by: bluethunder @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 16:05:19 PM CST

Re Franken (0.00 / 0)

Is it possible a court could call for a re-vote?

Re Jared Bernstein - great choice.

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by: steve katz @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 16:06:32 PM CST

i was wondering the same thing today... nt. (0.00 / 0)

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by: seabrook @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 20:24:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This time if he writes a diary not only on DKos but anywhere, it will get read. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

The link above is to Jared's Bernstein diary on Dkos in 2006.  No one knew he was.....so it got no notice and quickly disappeared.

But now he a different and even the blogosphere...someone with real power.

Congratulations to Mr. Bernstein. Throughout the 90's and of course under Bush, he was somoeone whose voice was always important...but he wasn't listened to...Now let's all hope he will be.

Jared Bernstein, "Econotherapist" | WesPac | Securing America ...Jared Bernstein wrote an excellent diary at DKos today and nobody came! ... does the repost today with a different title as suggested bye debcoop yesterday. ...
securingamerica.com/ccn/node/7520 - 32k - Cached - Similar pages

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

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by: debcoop @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 17:27:12 PM CST

Not too worried about redistricting (0.00 / 0)

Sure, it'll be bad in 2012, but if we preserve or slightly improve our positions in a lot of those legislatures, vastly better maps for Democrats can be drawn. Arizona has a board, Michigan and Ohio could be fixed, Pennsylvania could probably be tinkered with for a bit of gain, and there's a chance that we could knock NY-26 when Upstate loses a seat.

Texas' growth is much less Republican than the rest of the state and the State House gerrymander is already failing, so they'll either have to be cautious or play it too aggressively and create a dummymander. Oregon's growth is primarily in the Portland area (I think) and certainly if Portland is split three safe Democratic districts, two toss-up/lean seats and a blood-red OR-2 could be retained. And as for California, growth patterns make me wonder if there's any way an incumbent protection plan could actually work for the GOP. When even Orange County could be blue within a decade, they're in trouble. Plus there are already enough LA districts that it's hard to see how they could pack any more in. By my counts 29 California Dems already hold districts which are D+8 and above (using pre-election numbers, and picking that number because D+7 is the most Republican seat in the House). So California Dems are not going to lose out in redistricting.

Even the difference at presidential level isn't that bad, as by 2016 a lot of the seats gaining population will be much more likely to have moved our way. In 2020, Texas will be ripe for flipping.

The only real problem here is Florida, and that will remain that way until we break the Republican state trifecta.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

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by: Englishlefty @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 19:44:29 PM CST

Even with Florida (0.00 / 0)

hard to see how they pack many more republicans in there. They've already packed and cracked as much as they can. The big growth corridors along I-4 are all trending Dem in a big way. I'd be interested in your take, but I bet the two new seats end up being a rep. seat and a competitive seat.

And off-topic, who do you think is in worse shape in the next few years, Steven Harper or David Cameron?

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by: adamterando @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 20:02:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If McCain had won Indiana (0.00 / 0)

I can assure you that you wouldn't have won the contest, because about 500 more people would have gotten the electoral count right, most got the Senate right, and I'm sure some of them, if only by chance, got a House error under 4.  So don't fret.

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by: Lester @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 20:42:15 PM CST

Obama's newly appointed chief speechwriter, drunk... (0.00 / 0)

... groping a cardboard cutout of Hillary.

You know, I'm thinking maybe some of my questions about the overall tenor of the Obama campaign have been answered.

And the kicker? The image comes from his own FaceBook page. Bwa-ha-ha-ha!

I am in earnest -- I will not equivocate -- I will not excuse -- I will not retreat a single inch -- AND I WILL BE HEARD.  

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by: lambert @ Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 20:54:16 PM CST

I can't apologize for Indiana (4.00 / 1)

It's just too awesome that Indiana flipped from being 20 some percent for Bush to slightly for Obama.  Living in Indiana, I just feel good about the fact that my vote meant something.  Now if we could just get rid of Steve Buyers, we could make some progress.

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by: zelt @ Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 00:46:07 AM CST

Apologize? (0.00 / 0)

As a fellow Hoosier canvasser, I feel perfectly content to tell Chris to go Cheney himself.

:)

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by: ibaxter @ Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 00:56:09 AM CST

[ Parent ]

If I remember correctly (0.00 / 0)

you said at some point that you canvassed in Lafayette or in the boondocks as I recall.  Are you from Lafayette?  I live on the west side.

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by: zelt @ Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 01:36:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Votes to be counted in OH-15 (0.00 / 0)

I'm curious about a part of Chris' post about the vote counting in OH-15: "The remaining votes--about 14,000, I believe--will take between 10 to 16 days to count." An article in the Columbus Dispatch says that there are about 36,000 votes left to count (provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots), and that the Franklin County BOE might be done counting by the end of the weekend, expecting to meet on Monday to announce the totals.

I don't mean to nitpick, and giving the choice of believing Chris Bowers or the Dispatch, a notorious Republican rag (the Buckeye State Blog routinely refers to it as "Dispatch (R-Columbus)"), I'd go with Chris every time.

But it's a big discrepancy -- according to the Dispatch report, there are a lot more votes to count in a much less time, which could lead to very rushed and error-prone process. It also doesn't leave much time for SoS Jennifer Brunner to appeal this ruling at the US Supreme Court, if she wants to try (she already got SCOTUS to overrule the Ohio Supremes when the GOP made a scattershot allegation of voter fraud during the election). So if I had my druthers, Chris' account would be the accurate one. What gives?

P.S.: May I be so immodest as to link to my Daily Kos diary on the subject.

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by: Buckeye Hamburger @ Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 04:11:37 AM CST