So, there is some buzz this morning about Edwards pulling into a tie with Obama in the daily Rasmussen tracking poll. For example, over at Dailykos, there is a diary with nearly 200 comments on this subject, heralding that these results mean “[t]he media narrative of a two way race is history.” However, in order to satisfy my general urges to be contrary, I wish to point out that the media narrative on the two-person horserace was pretty much always wrong. In fact, given the typical historical bounces candidates receive from Iowa, Edwards has almost always been ahead of Obama in this campaign. In fact, Edwards has been ahead of Clinton more often than Obama has been ahead of Edwards.
Given that national polls consistently show Clinton in a clear first place and Obama in a clear second place, how can I make this statement? Simple. By calculation the average bounce candidates receive for finishing first, second and third in Iowa, applying that bounce to New Hampshire, and then applying both the Iowa and New Hampshire bounces for first, second and third place finishes to national polls, for eight months now I have maintained a private calculation of where the Democratic nomination campaign stands (at first I used my own crude momentum estimate to do this, and then I used better data provided later on by MyDD and Open Left diarist fladem). All one needs to do is look at two diaries by Fladem for the information on the average historical bounces from Iowa and New Hampshire (see the impact of Iowa on New Hampshire here, and the impact of Iowa and New Hampshire on national polls here), and then apply those bounces to the moving average of Iowa, New Hampshire and national polls as found at Real Clear Politics. Doing so has led me to the following post-New Hampshire national standings for the Democratic nomination campaign, starting with the first New Hampshire poll to include Obama on December 20th of last year:
Projected Post-New Hampshire National Democratic Standings, December 2006—current
Date
First
Second
Third
Dec 20
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Jan 14
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Jan 19
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Feb 05
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Feb 09
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Mar 22
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Apr 03
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
May 16
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
May 20
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
May 26
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Jul 30
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Aug 03
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Aug 05
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Overall: 252 days
Clinton: 156 days in first place, 91 days in second pace, 5 days in third
Edwards: 96 days in first place, 87 days in second place, 69 days in third place
Obama: 0 days in first place, 74 days in second place, 178 days in third place
Of course, this all assumes that Iowa and New Hampshire are indeed the first two states in the nomination campaign, and that the bounces candidates receives from finishing in first, second or third in each state is in line with historical averages. Still, nearly half of Obama’s time ahead of Edwards has taken place since July 30th. The rest of it took place in February and March. As you can see, due to the volatile effect of Iowa on New Hampshire, and of Iowa and New Hampshire on national polls, is has been quite reasonable to assume that because Edwards has frequently been ahead in Iowa, that he has also typically been “ahead” of Obama in the nomination campaign overall. As such, it is simply not accurate to say that Edwards is catching up to Obama, as reality is quite the opposite. Over the last month, Obama has moved closer to Edwards in Iowa, and solidified his advantage over Edwards in New Hampshire. It is Obama who has caught, and passed, Edwards for second place in the campaign.
Now, it certainly will come as news to most political journalists and close followers of the election that Edwards has almost always been in a much better position to win the nomination than Obama. However, I am quite certain that anyone following the trends in early state polls more than national polls will nod in agreement when they see this post. No matter what the national polls have said, this has always been a close, three way campaign, due to how close it is in Iowa. In fact, lately, it has become a four person race, given Richardson's emergence in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, Edwards does indeed face a serious problem where, despite his frequent and extremely important advantage in Iowa, he severely lags behind Obama and Clinton in terms of news coverage. Unfortunately for Edwards and Edwards supporters, however, that disadvantage has, throughout the campaign, had very little to do with actually being in third place in the nomination campaign. If Edwards is going to break through the two-person horserace narrative, basically the only means I can see is to educate the national media on the importance of winning Iowa.
Notes on the changes to the standings in the table:
Dec. 20: First New Hampshire poll including Obama, and thus the start of the chart. At this point, Edwards and Obama are 1-2 in Iowa, and close enough to Clinton in New Hampshire for the resulting momentum to allow them to both overtake her in that state. However, Clinton is far enough ahead in national polls to maintain second place even after consecutive third-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Jan 14: Same situation as above, except that with the release of the January 14th Gallup poll, Obama has now moved close enough nationally to overtake Clinton in the post-New Hampshire standings.
Jan 19: With the release of the January 19th ABC News / WaPo national poll, Clinton once again moves far enough ahead of Obama nationally to keep second place even after consecutive third-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Feb 05: With the release of the February 5th CNN / WMUR New Hampshire poll, Clinton is now far enough ahead in New Hampshire to win that state even with a third place finish in Iowa. This would allow her to maintain her national lead after New Hampshire.
Feb 09: With the release of the February 9th Zogby poll of Iowa, Clinton leaps from third to first place in the state. As a result, Edwards no longer receives enough of a boost from Iowa to pass Obama in New Hampshire.
March 22: With the release of the March 22nd American Research Group Iowa poll, Edwards retakes the lead in the Iowa moving average, and Clinton drops to second. This gives Edwards enough momentum to pass Obama in New Hampshire (and thus nationally), but not enough to pass Clinton.
Apr 03: With the release of the April 3rd Zogby poll of New Hampshire, Edwards moves close enough n that state for his Iowa lead to propel him to victory in both early states. This is also project to give Edwards the post-New Hampshire national lead.
May 16: With the release of the May 16th Zogby New Hampshire poll, Clinton moves far enough ahead of Edwards in that state to still win despite a second place finish in Iowa. This allows her to retake the national, post-New Hampshire lead.
May 20: With the release of the May 20th Strategic Vision poll of Iowa, Clinton drops to third in the state. While she is still far enough ahead of Obama in New Hampshire to finish second in that state, Edwards once again is positioned for an IA-NH sweep, giving him the post-New Hampshire lead.
May 26: With the release of the May 26th American Research Group poll of Iowa, Clinton moves back into second in the state. She is projected to be far enough ahead in New Hampshire to survive a second-place defeat in Iowa to Edwards.
Jul 30: After a long period of stability in the rankings, with the release of the July 30th American Research Group Iowa poll, Clinton takes the lead in Iowa. While Edwards remains in second in Iowa, Obama is far enough ahead of Edwards in New Hampshire to take second place there. This, combined with Obama’s superior national polling, allows him to remain in second in the post-New Hampshire projections.
Aug 03: Edwards regains the lead in Iowa following the completion of the Hart Research poll of Iowa. This narrowly moves him ahead of Obama in New Hampshire, as well.
Aug 05: Clinton takes the lead in Iowa with the completion of the August 5th University of Iowa poll, dropping Edwards to third in New Hampshire and keeping him in third nationally.
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