Earlier today, in a post entitled "Obama's Domination Of Democratic Opinion," I think I went too far in implying that there was no room at all for progressives to maneuver from Obama's left, and that the party will completely fall in line with whatever Obama wants. What I meant to state in the article is that Obama's ability to sway Democratic opinion on major issues, such as keeping Gates as Secretary of Defense, is simply a factor that progressives need to be aware of during the next four years. It is not, however, an immutable obstacle that will prevent any progressive maneuvering Obama does not directly sanction himself.
There are already at least three instances during the transition phase that indicate it is possible for progressives to exert outside influence on decisions made within the Obama camp: Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of the Interior, and CIA Director. These instances indicate that President-elect Obama and his closest advisors are indeed listening to progressive pressure, and will consider it in at least some cases. Further, there is enough similarity in how pressure was successfully applied in these three cases, along with several cases where it was not successfully applied, that a roadmap for successful activism from Obama's left is already emerging.
I provide detail on these positive developments in the extended entry.
Consider the three examples I include in the extended entry.
So, we already have some cases are cases where the Obama team appears willing to listen to progressive pressure. The key to successful progressive maneuvering appears to be three-fold:
It must come on a decision that has not yet been made, but where trail balloons have been leaked. These balloons do appear to be an attempt to gauge support for a decision that is still pending, and we should use them for this purpose. Making Obama change a decision after the fact appears virtually impossible (although his public flip on telecom immunity and 527s are exceptions to this rule).
The opposition must be both widespread and active, coming from a range of voices, experts, and institutions. Just talking about it isn't enough, it needs to be backed up with petitions. I would actually be really happy if petitions were suddenly relevant again.
It needs to be on an issue that is not commanding national news coverage. It seems likely that pressure of this sort would not have made any difference in the more prominent picks for Treasury, State and Defense. It seems that Obama will not back down to pressure on anything that commands significant public attention. So, perhaps the focus needs to be on wonkier issues that are generally ignored by national news outlets.
Overall, I am optimistic that the Obama camp appears willing to listen to progressives, and that a roadmap to successful progressive pressure appears to be emerging. While we need to be aware of Obama's ability to sway opinion in the Democratic Party when he chooses to do so, not every issue is going to be as prominent as, say, the fight to deny Lieberman the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs chair. Perhaps it is in these less-prominent areas where we can get the most done, as long as we move at the appropriate time and with the appropriate sorts of action.
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