Giving Gillibrand a Chance

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jan 23, 2009 at 12:24


I am going to write something that might sound a little bit off character: I am willing to give Bush Dog, and apparently soon to be New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand a chance during her time in the Senate.  In practice, what this means is that while I will be interested in looking at primary challenges she receives in 2010, and while I am wary of her past performance, the defeat of the working conservative majority and the newly arrived Democratic trifecta does appear to have altered the congressional playing field. It now seems likely new alliances can be formed for progressives, and no approach to passing progressive legislation, or stopping bad legislation, should be dismissed out of hand.

Case in point: the Wall Street bailout, otherwise known as TARP. Gillibrand voted against it back in October, then she voted in favor of the auto bailout in December, then voted in favor of Barney Frank's oversight bill on Wednesday, and then voted against the release of the second half of the funds yesterday. This makes Gillibrand one of about only 40-50 26 House Democrats who would have voted the same way I would have voted across all four of those bills. (Update: Anthony de Jesus provides the list of the 26 House Democrats who voted this way).

More in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Giving Gillibrand a Chance
Further, now that Natasha and I are spending time digging through every bill introduced to the House and the Senate as part of the progressive legislation monitoring project, we are finding some surprisingly good legislation introduced by Democrats we normally wouldn't consider strong allies. Case in point: Diane Feinstein introducing some pretty good legislation so far in the 111th Congress. Feinstein's S 116, to require that $10 billion in TARP money be given directly to state and local governments who suffered losses due to highly rated investments in certain financial institutions, seems pretty good. In fact, if Senator Dorgan's S 195 makes it out of committee, I would like to try and push for S 116 to be offered as an amendment.

For the last eight years, the pattern of the working conservative majority has been for a minority of Democrats to join with unanimous Republicans in passing bad legislation. In that environment, Gillibrand would almost certainly have been a bad choice for Senator, especially from a state as blue as New York. However, that pattern of conservative governance broke down over the Wall Street bailout, and has never recovered. Since that time, there have been two sorts of roll call votes in Congress: unanimous Democrats passing bills with a minority of Republican support, and chaotic alliances between a majority of Republicans, along with a smattering of Blue Dogs and progressives, defeated by a "serious people consensus" alliance of a minority of Republicans, a majority of Democrats and the President (whether Bush or Obama). In this environment, someone like Gillibrand is arguably a more useful vote for progressives than a more traditionally liberal Senator would be, as demonstrated by her voting patterns on bailouts.

Of course, being a Senator is not just about voting. Would Gillibrand have stood up with her Senate colleagues, and opposed the business tax cuts in Obama's original draft of the economic stimulus? How about standing with Schumer to increase mass transit funding in the stimulus? Probably not, in both cases. Also, what sort of legislation will she introduce? Hard to say, since she hasn't actually introduced any this year.

Still, given the breakdown of the conservative working majority pattern in Congress, and given that we now have the opportunity to pass good legislation rather than just oppose crappy legislation, Gillibrand may yet turn our to be a useful ally. Already today, she has reversed an earlier stance, and declared her support for marriage equality. This is one Update New Yorker who is willing to give her a chance.


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I'm still pissed off that we just lost a CD. (0.00 / 0)
Are there no Democratic politicians that give a damn about maintaining our majorities?

How do you know? .. (4.00 / 2)
Are there any good Democrats in that district?  Any that serve in Albany?  Just look, if Tom Geoghegan wins his race, will Rahmbo moving to CoS look that bad in retrospect?  Urge good Democrats in your district to run.  Be the change, don't wait for it!!

[ Parent ]
The district is Republican at the local level (4.00 / 1)
The Democratic bench is very small. Even Gillibrand had to be convinced to move back from NYC, IIRC. In a normal election, we would have a decent shot at retaining it. But in a special election, I am pessimistic to say the least.

[ Parent ]
We'll lose a district there anyway (4.00 / 2)
NY is very likely to lose a congressional district after the 2010 census.  This is a very conservative district.  

Cut this district for the 2012 elections


[ Parent ]
There's still a few years in between. (4.00 / 1)
Besides, I'd rather cut up a different Republican district. We need to make NY's congressional delegation completely blue.

[ Parent ]
I'd leave one super-GOP district in western NY. (0.00 / 0)
Put all the Republicans in western NY into NY-26.  Then you can shore up the surrounding districts, particularly NY-29 if we still hold it.  Overreach is what kills gerrymanders -- just ask the PA GOP.

We should be able to get NY-3, NY-13, and whatever McHugh's district is numbered though.


[ Parent ]
We can get McHugh's district anyway (0.00 / 0)
It's R+0, so we'll have a shot as soon as he retires.

And until he does, he's not liable to be that vulnerable anyway. Dismembering his district would be difficult and probably not productive.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
It will be tough to keep (0.00 / 0)
but I am already hearing some rumblings about some potentially good candidates. We'll see how things shake out over the next few weeks and when the special elections is set for.

Besides, the Republicans are in severe disarray up here and with Bruno no longer around to run the show it is going to get really messy... really ugly messy... on their side trying to take this seat back.

Time to bake up some popcorn and watch the show!

Peace,

Andrew


[ Parent ]
Gillibrand looks way better than Carolyn McCarthy (4.00 / 1)
A Democrat running a single issue primary against the 2nd Amendment is pretty much the last thing we need now that the GOP has solidified itself as the party against the Bill of Rights.

I suspect (0.00 / 0)
she'll be different as a Senator than she was in the house.  Her district is pretty conservative.  The biggest threat to her survival statewide is a primary.  So I think she'll veer to the left.

Gillibrand has every incentive to move left (0.00 / 0)
She's going to have to worry about primary challenges, so I expect it will be a fairly easy matter to pressure her. Her selection will also make it much less likely that a Republican like Peter King will gain any traction, given Gillibrand's upstate support.

Did I get this right? (0.00 / 0)
as long as  Gillibrand opposes Obama, you're cool with her.  

If that is what you want to see (4.00 / 3)
then I hope it makes you feel better.

Everything is either with Obama or against him!


[ Parent ]
There are many things that I disagree with Obama on (0.00 / 0)
but I find that you (sometimes) and Sirota (most of the time) are making a career out of being on the opposite side.  It's almost as if you miss Bush.  

[ Parent ]
Right now I disagree somewhat (0.00 / 0)
about the stimulus package.  I think that the Republicans have a couple of valid points.

The Republicans stressed that they want to include more middle class tax cuts in the package, citing their proposal to cut the two lowest tax rates - 15 percent and 10 percent - to ten percent and five percent,

"How can you spend hundreds of millions of dollars on contraceptives?" Boehner asked. "How does that stimulate the economy?"

http://www.politico.com/news/s...


[ Parent ]
that don't make no kind of sense (0.00 / 0)
Your models of Chris and David are giving you trouble because they are inaccurate. They remain to the left of both Bush and Obama.

They are continuing their careers of being progressives.


[ Parent ]
Hey Chris, (0.00 / 0)
Don't you think it's time to retire your Saxby Chambliss signature line?

[ Parent ]
Chris, this is stupid. (0.00 / 0)
So we're to "give her a chance," this Blue Dog we've wound up with after so many got their panties in a twist and launched some kind of laughably moronic storming of the bastille against the evil, evil Caroline Kennedy, but people who said that we should give Obama a chance were "cultists"?

The stupid really does born sometimes.


[ Parent ]
support for marriage equality, nice! (0.00 / 0)
as markos says "Gillibrand wouldn't have been caught dead with this kind of unambiguous support for gay rights in her House district."

maybe I spoke too soon yesterday

let's see how she does now


Not quite 40-50 (4.00 / 1)
This is the list of Dems voting the Bowers position on all four:

Barrow
Carney
Chandler
Costello
Courtney
Davis (TN)
DeFazio
Doggett
Gillibrand
Green, Gene
Hodes
Inslee
Johnson (GA)
Kaptur
Kucinich
Lipinski
Lynch
McDermott
Napolitano
Sanchez, Loretta
Sánchez, Linda T.
Scott (VA)
Serrano
Shea-Porter
Stupak
Visclosky

I count 26 (of whom 5 are listed as Bush Dogs in the side bar on the right).  I didn't check for anyone who voted for 3 and missed a vote.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


Also a question (0.00 / 0)
It took me 15 minutes to do by hand.  Is there any downloadable database of votes that I can load into a spreadsheet or SPSS?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
I believe you missed (0.00 / 0)
Baron Hill
Michael Michaud
John Salazar

[ Parent ]
what's your opinion of the 4 senate appointments? (0.00 / 0)
new york: sounds ok

illinois: I think burris won't survive the primary

connecticut: fine. kaufman won't run, state is deep blue

colorado: this one has me worried
does the gop have any strong candidates there?


Gillibrand Moves on Gun Control Today (0.00 / 0)
gillibrand already moving on guns-calls rep mcarthy-supports now gun backround checks etc..
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

HRC Talks to Her and reports- (0.00 / 0)
human rights campaign satisfied-talks to gillibrand today -
http://www.pamshouseblend.com/...

[ Parent ]
HRC sucks (4.00 / 1)
This after an unnecessary freakout because of her HRC vote score without people realizing that their scorecard is a complete joke.

Only HRC's incompetence could result in a misguided backlash against an equality supporter.


[ Parent ]
yup-- she called Empire State Pride Agenda too -- (0.00 / 0)
she was against repealing DADT her whole career, and never lifted a finger on these issues.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new...

--

... Not everyone was upset.

Alan Van Capelle, head of the Empire State Pride Agenda, the state's largest gay rights group, said Gillibrand expressed support for gay marriage and said she would support full repeal of the federal Defense of Marriage Act as well as the Don't Ask Don't Tell military policy.

"After talking to Kirsten Gillibrand, I am very happy to say that New York is poised to have its first U.S. Senator who supports marriage equality for same-sex couples," Van Capelle said. ...



[ Parent ]
This is not the Democrats' forte, is it? (4.00 / 4)
Imagine a conservative Republican in a state like Oklahoma appointing a moderate to a Senate seat. Just wouldn't happen.

So let's see... Obama's win has led to four Senate vacancies, and what we've gotten are a Blue Dog, a crony, and a school superintendent.

At least Roland Burris is a solid, qualified progressive. Thank heavens that appointment worked out so well.


That's o.k. Kos and Bowers are cool with her (4.00 / 1)


[ Parent ]
burris a "solid, qualified progressive"? (4.00 / 1)
on what planet?

Tell that to the innocent man he kept on death row.

George Ryan's death penalty moratorium occured because Roland Burris insisted on fighting to keep a clearly innocent man on death row.

Roland Burris is no progressive.  A self-aggrandizing jerk, a egotistical jackass, or a self-promoting loser, perhaps, but not a progressive.


[ Parent ]
"giving a chance" doesn't sell ads! (2.00 / 2)
I suggest you:

- post a vitriolic update
- tweet like crazy about her Bush Dog voting record
- started a facebook group called: "Anybody but Gillibrand in 2010"

pure linkbait gold!


I'm not reassured by her potential change (4.00 / 2)
I think it's pretty cynical to assume that Gillibrand will move left for political expediency, or to take solace in that prospect.

For one thing, the same logic could be used to support virtually anyone who would run for this seat.  Moreover, this argument implies that there's no difference between someone who has true progressive inclinations and someone who shifts their principles with the political winds.

I can understand the position that Gillibrand is well-positioned to retain the seat, and to help Patterson upstate.  But this hardly represents an advance towards "better Democrats."


Obama on her -- "she worked to strengthen public and private partnerships" (4.00 / 2)
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...  --

... During her career, Kirsten has been a strong voice for transparency and reform in government and shares the belief that government should be open, accessible and work for all of our citizens. In Congress and as special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, she worked to strengthen public and private partnerships to invest in infrastructure and New York's economy. ...

he just loooooves that -- he's used that line for almost all his appointments, over and over and over ...


You can't win a statewide election if you don't promote NY city and urban issues (4.00 / 1)
NY City is almost 60% of the vote...by my recollection.  You have to consider NY's intersts or you don't win.  From transit to immigration to choice and other social issues...if you are in direct opposition you can't win.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller


Thanks Chris (0.00 / 0)
I see eye-to-eye with you virutally 98-99% of the time. I think you will be very pleased with Kirsten.

As to your two examples, she made it very clear today (as I have heard her in the past) that she would stand shoulder to shoulder with Schumer on mass transit. I am not sure about the business tax cuts as I don't know the details of that and she is conscientous about the details of bills.

Peace,

Andrew
former Internet Outreach Coordinator for the Gillibrand '06 campaign


Eh (4.00 / 1)
still a little skeptical. We probably lose a House seat that she was a good fit for and to get into a decent standing on the issues she has to flip flop on pretty much everything. But I'll give her a chance to prove herself as I do everybody.

Also interesting that we've added 3 new Senators publicly supportive of full marriage equality this cycle. Franken, Merkley and Gillibrand. I think we had four or five before. We are making progress on that issue.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


What the hell else can we do? (0.00 / 0)
Is there even a point to saying we'll "give her a chance"? What would NOT "giving her a chance" even mean?

Gillibrand will want to be re-elected, and so she'll have to sell herself downstate, doing the sort of work Clinton did upstate when she decided to run. If she does that, she'll beat King, who has the handicap of being hard to like after you get to know him.

From a hardnosed perspective, progressives' best bet is to keep the heat on Gillibrand and make her work for our votes. What else is there to do?


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