Please President Obama, Don't Buy The Shitpile

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 11:57


Here is why I would have voted against the second half of the Wall Street bailout. Nationalization is out of the question:

Mr. Geithner declined to provide any specific details or to address rising calls for the creation of a government institution to buy or guarantee the declining assets at several of the nation's largest banks. He discouraged speculation that the plan would include the nationalization of some banks.

"We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system," he said.

Shareholders will be rewarded, not punished. Because, you know, the government is now guaranteeing your stock investments and six figure salaries won't crash:

Moreover, as the excesses of Wall Street - from expensive corporate jets at Citigroup to huge bonuses and extravagant renovations at Merrill Lynch - ring through Capitol Hill, the idea of a large bailout that does not penalize shareholders and senior executives becomes a tough sell.

Most of the money will be used to purchase bad assets, aka the Shitpile (emphasis mine):

According to several Wall Street officials, senior administration members spent the weekend and the last few days reaching out to top bankers for their views on how a bad bank should be structured. Lawrence H. Summers, head of the White House's National Economic Council; Sheila C. Bair, the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation chairwoman; and Mr. Geithner have been involved in the talks, the Wall Street officials said.

Federal policy makers are discussing how to use the second $350 billion portion of bailout funds. About $50 billion to $100 billion is expected to be allocated to stave off home foreclosures. That would leave up to $250 billion available for the banks, with the bulk going to buying troubled assets.

It's a bottomless well that makes the stimulus package quaint and cute (more in the extended entry):

Chris Bowers :: Please President Obama, Don't Buy The Shitpile
On Wednesday, the head of the Congressional Budget Office told lawmakers that weakening banks would probably need hundreds of billions in additional funds beyond the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

But administration officials believe that trillions of dollars more may be needed to buy the majority of bad assets from banks.

"The size of the problem is so large that no one knows if you just wiped out all the assets, how much it would cost," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. He added that a number of officials estimate it may take up to $3 trillion to $4 trillion to buy the bad assets.

About the only ray of hope is that the plan is not final. Congress, which gave the money away, doesn't even know how it will be used:

Lawmakers have complained that the $350 billion already spent under TARP has failed to prevent institutions from continuing to decline. On Wednesday, several senior members of Congress, including Christopher J. Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, urged the administration to detail swiftly how it will run the assets program.

Banks about to go under because of bad assets should be nationalized by the government, and the stockholders wiped out. Once that is done, the banks should then resold to the private sector with vastly increased regulations. This is what we did in the 1980's during the S & L scandal, sans the increased regulation aspect. Instead, the Obama administration is moving toward bailing out the private stockholders by taking their own bad decisions off their hands with a quarter of a trillion in public money--possibly much more. We are close to using what little is left of our national wealth to take the losses off the hands of wealthy stockholders and bankers.

Please President Obama, don't do this. Don't hand our national wealth over to bank shareholders. Shareholders do not have a right to always make money. Further, the rest of us didn't cause this problem, and we deserve better.


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Why don't we turn the banks into regulated public utilities? (4.00 / 6)
Obviously, these guys are terrible at assessing risk, which was supposed to be their job, so why are we paying them the big bucks? In fact, why are we paying them anything at all?

Why don't we treat access to credit just like access to gas or power (sans the privatization nonsense) and eliminate all the "complexity" and "innovation," which turned out to be outright looting anyhow?

Geithner's not looking too good, so far. First, it's blame the Chinese; now, it's put us on the hook for more. This is change I can believe in?

I am in earnest -- I will not equivocate -- I will not excuse -- I will not retreat a single inch -- AND I WILL BE HEARD.  


What you just said... (4.00 / 1)
is a key reason for why the new deal was so successful. They brought in a wide range of people with different backgrounds who were willing to blow up old models and explore new ones.

I don't see that happening on the economic policy side in the Obama administration (at least not yet).

Credit as a regulated utility?  --- I like it!  


[ Parent ]
I don't think "bad bank" necessarily means the shareholders are protected (0.00 / 0)
My understanding is that the devil is in the details; for if the so-called toxic assets are not valued too high -- whatever that means - then the shareholders may actually take quite a hit.

Of course, the trick is how to value the bad assets.  

Note, even if the shareholders do take a hit, it seems that the "bad bank" can help the banks in the end, just by taking the "bad assets" off the books, stopping the uncertainty about where the banks stand.

On the other hand, I can't even understand my son's 9th grade math homework .. . .


they shouldn't take "quite a hit" (4.00 / 2)
they should be wiped out totally. That's what happens when you own stock in an insolvent company.

I thought Dodd and the others were "assured" that this $350 billion wouldn't be wasted? Yet we are piling more and more money into bad assets, money which is then being used to redecorate offices, buy jets, and hand out bonuses.

This is bullshit and needs to stop. Nationalize now.

I think calling our Congressfolk and getting really pissed will be the only way to affect things. That, or Geithner and Summers realize how expensive this will be and change their minds.


[ Parent ]
My bet (4.00 / 2)
They don't intend to pay market value; they intend to pay face value, or as near to it as the politics -- that's us, folks -- will allow. The usual suspects will do quite well. We're not talking about the value of the commoners' 401K's here; we're talking about rewarding malfeasance among the bank directors and hedge fund managers, and the sanctity of their larger investors' capital.

Pissing on 'em -- if we can find 'em, and even if we find 'em running Obama's Treasury Department -- would be a more equitable approach for the rest of us, and safer for the country as well.


[ Parent ]
Strange model (4.00 / 4)
What finance course did Geithner et. al. take?  The model is very clear.  Stockholders make the largest returns but take the most risks. Bond holders make lesser returns but have a safer security.  When companies fail stock holders are supposed to lose part or even all of their investment.  Assets pay off creditors first, then bond holders, and then stockholders. That's the way it has worked for hundreds of years.  Geithner's efforts to safeguard the masters of the universe are misguided and extremely, extremely strange.  He was a bad pick at the time and he looks like a disastrous pick now.

I don't (0.00 / 0)
like the Bad Bank idea either, but for a different reason.

The Bad Bank is going to buy up assets at rock bottom prices, thereby locking in massive losses to shareholders.  This will further destroy the shareprice of banks, making them even less capable of lending.  

It's better to nationalize the banks, as you said, but not because it wipes out the shareholders.  The Geithner plan will wipe them out (or nearly so) as well.  Nationalization is better than Bad Bank because it recognizes that we can't salvage the banks and is a more rational approach that will lead us in a positive direction sooner.


Isn't the point to remove the uncertainty? (0.00 / 0)
I thought that the chief problem now isn't that the banks lack assets to lend, but that they don't even know what their balance sheets really are, due to the uncertainty about the value of the bad assets.  Thus, by removing the bad assets, the banks will know where they stand.

And I assume that the goal in valuing the bad assets and creating the "bad bank" is to end up with a smaller number of private banks, with definable balance sheets, and an ability to lend.

I agree that nationalization is better policy, but I really question whether Obama has the ability to push that through right now.  Frankly, I think we need even more panic or shock to the system before outright nationalization becomes viable.


[ Parent ]
Yes, he can push it through (4.00 / 1)
There was no congressional action needed to nationalize AIG or Freddie and Fannie. He could probably buy controlling stock simply with the rest of the TARP money.

And the really terrible part of the Bad Bank idea is that the government would have to overpay for these toxic assets, giving taxpayers a raw deal. Why should taxpayers take trillions in losses while stockholders experience only temporary discomfort?

It's completely insane.


[ Parent ]
What you miss (0.00 / 0)
here is that there really isn't a market price for these assets.  That is the fundemental problem.  Geithner's plan is essentially to make a market for the securities, which will allow banks to get these assets of their balance sheets.  

No one is going to force the banks to sell these assets - they are going to lining to do so though.  

Nationalization really doesn't solve this problem.  


[ Parent ]
Given that many of us own mutual funds (0.00 / 0)
that may or may not invest in some of these banks, to what extent are these shareholders who need to be punished, us?

to (0.00 / 0)
an extremely large extent, especially considering that the collapse of the financial sector will have a ripple effect across your entire portfolio.

Unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot that can be done about this because the banks lost more money than currently exists.


[ Parent ]
I must be hopelessly un-Post Modern (0.00 / 0)
Or maybe I spent too much time studying science, rather than economics

Because statements like this:

"Unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot that can be done about this because the banks lost more money than currently exists."

still give me a headache. How is it possible to lose more of anything than currently exists? If there are only 6 apples in existence, how does one manage to lose 7?  

Does it involve Dark Matter?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
I didn't (4.00 / 1)
mean that literally...or maybe I did.  In any case, you can be sure something fraudulent has happened when someone loses more apples than actually exist.

[ Parent ]
it's called leverage and you can lose more than exists (4.00 / 1)
when you are leveraged 30 or 40 to 1.

think of it like betting you bet 1 dollar on a ball game and give the people you are betting against 30 to 1 odds, but you only have 30 dollars to your name. So if you lose all your bets you owe 30 times more than exists.


[ Parent ]
That sounds like more than I have (0.00 / 0)
Sure, if someone else will lend me an apple, then I can lose 7 of them, even though I only have 6.  But, the person I lost the bet to will have 7 apples, so clearly the apples exist.

The post used the term "exist", which I took literally. I'm not sure if the kind of virtual wealth that we use on this planet actually "exists" in any physical sense. In that case, losses (and gains) are unlimited.

If we return to your betting analogy, and put aside the "apple standard", then I can simply pay my debt by handing over 6 apples and a piece of paper with the picture of an apple on it. If the person I'm paying agrees that the picture of the apple is worth the same as a real apple, then my debt is settled. Like wealth and value, once we agree to use virtual apples as our currency, its seems just a matter of time before there are more virtual apples than real apples. Even so, as long as everyone agrees that paper apples are just like real apples, we're all set. But what happens when someone starts questioning the value of paper apples?



"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
then china stops buying treasury notes (4.00 / 1)
I think they have been talking about that lately.

[ Parent ]
To the extent that you helped fund the mess (4.00 / 3)
By buying overvalued stock.  

That being said I don't think the main issue is actually punishing the current shareholders.  

Its punishing the shareholders who actually caused the mess.  Much like the losers in madoff's scheme can go after the winners we should do the same for the people who sold their financial stocks in the past year.

http://transgendermom.blogspot....


[ Parent ]
If you are invested in a bad company (4.00 / 3)
then unfortunately you have to take the hit when the company goes under. The government didn't step in and prop up NASDAQ when the tech bubble burst. They didn't compensate the hard-working folks who lost everything when their Enron stock collapsed. It's just the way the market works.

If I was you, I'd divest myself of bank stocks pronto.


[ Parent ]
I appreciate the advice, but none of the responders have gotten my point (0.00 / 0)
We were never talking about me. That was a hypothetical. I'm safely ensconced in academia, and my 403k is all I have, and its doing OK.

This is a political problem.  Many Americans own mutual funds, and most of them don't really give a good goddamn what's in them.  But I suspect they will if they are informed they are gonna get smacked around by the government firesaling the assets of these companies.

So the question is:  how do you sell this to Americans when this isn't an example of the "fat cats" vs. the little guy.  In many cases, the little guy has been subsidizing those fat cats and has come to see themselves as linked to them, in even a small way.


[ Parent ]
They aren't actually (4.00 / 1)
These banks have already lost most of their value.  Anything left wouldn't make a big dent in anyones 401k.

http://transgendermom.blogspot....

[ Parent ]
its not that simple (0.00 / 0)
pension funds are big investors in corporate bonds - like financial corporate bonds. to nationalize the banks will require haircutting bond holders - maybe .$20 on the dollar maybe $.10 - who knows - it will vary by institution - but there are likely a lot of pension funds out there calling Chuck-E-Cheese Schumer begging him to help bail their ass out. Pension funds - muni and corporate are in serious deep trouble. Defaults are going to be the norm as they collectively all missed the signals this baby was going down. Unions should at least demand that their pension fund managers be fired. But I haven't seen reports of the guillotines dropping - if someone else has I would enjoy reading those.

~* the * Will * to go on *~

[ Parent ]
what's it all about (0.00 / 0)
dKos diarist Acacia951 worked for a subprime mortgage lender, has a personal experience about what caused the problem,

Greed on the part of the borrowers, who wanted to get into homes they knew they couldn't afford. Greed on the part of the real estate agents and loan officers who could make upwards of 5-10 or even $20,000 on one loan. Greed on the part of the subprime lending institutions who were making millions selling their securitized loan packages on the secondary market at ridiculously high margins. Greed on the part of the investment firms who purchased those securitized packages and who are now having to get bailed out by the government.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Dear Mr. President, don't use taxpayer money to reward greed.


This is such a BS line (0.00 / 0)
"Greed on the part of the borrowers, who wanted to get into homes they knew they couldn't afford."

and no one even questions it. Borrowers do not determine how credit worthy they are. Thye never did. That was always the responsibility of the lending party. They do the credit checks, they verify income and they determine how much you can borrow. It is a ridiculous republican talking point that keeps getting played over and over again.


[ Parent ]
not really (0.00 / 0)
you have to be a complete greedy idiot to put no money to 5% down on a 30year flex in a market that is well outside all historical norms and not think you're going to get screwed. people who borrow money need to take responsibility for the amount of leverage they take on. just like those who lend do. let the lenders and borrowers both fail - and those who were smart to wait on the sidelines will be able to get the affordable houses they deserve. this knee jerk empathy for every moron in america doesn't help poor people who were smart and sat it out and it doesn't help the idiots learn anything.

~* the * Will * to go on *~

[ Parent ]
it is not knee jerk sympathy (4.00 / 1)
it is the standard business model that existed for at least my 50+ years. It is the lending institutions that threw out their own model. And right now the only people really suffering are the home buyers. They are getting foreclosed on while the lenders are getting bailed out.

[ Parent ]
or (0.00 / 0)
simply financially ignorant.  The lenders will tend to know a hell of a lot more about finance and if you always wanted to own a home, and have an expert telling you it is affordable, you are that much more likely to go for it.

Most people will get a single digit number of mortgages in their life.  A mortgage broker will do that in a day's work.  They bear more responsibility by virtue of sheer experience and expertise.

Anyway I'm not even totally comfortable blaming the individual loan officers.  Everyone was sucked in to a giant con, and the people who could have prevented it or stopped it have titles like "President" and "Fed Chair."  That's where I put the lion's share of the blame, the creators of the machine, not the cogs.


[ Parent ]
If Obama doesn't get any non wallstreet advisor (4.00 / 1)
I hope they get caught up in one of the scandals and have to resign.  Any investigative journalists out there want to investigate these guys?

We had every right to be angry he wasn't hiring any progressives for his economic and foreign policy teams.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but (4.00 / 1)
If Geithner and Obama started talking up nationalization of banks right now, wouldn't a lot of those banks, including some that were not being considered for nationalization, take a hit on their share prices.  It seems to me that if the goals of nationalization are 1)to stabilize the banking industry and 2) to force shareholders in the nationalized bank into "contributing" to that stabilization, then you would want to pretty much act like you were not planning to nationalize right up to the day when you announced your exact nationalization plan.  If you walk around talking about how nationalization is on the table well in advance of making a firm decision you will wreak havoc on a number of otherwise healthy banks and you will cause the target banks to lose a lot of value before you take them over.  If I am correct, then Geithner and Obama are acting exactly the way a President and Treasury Secretary should act right before they nationalize some banks.

If they made it clear how and under what circumstances (0.00 / 0)
it would work then not necessarily. I own bank stock and am in favor of nationalization, but my bet (which is all an investment in this market really is) is that the Obama team will save the stock holders and screw the taxpayers.

[ Parent ]
A friend of mine is making the same bet (0.00 / 0)
He recently purchased some Citi shares at about 3.42.  I told him to get ready to make a killing or get wiped out.  Personally, I think that if the shareholder bailout was such a sure thing, Citi'd already be doing much better.

I agree with you that if they made it clear exactly how nationalization would occur, they would avoid the bad consequences, but that was my point.  I think, if they are going to nationalize, they are going to keep it quiet until they know exactly how they want to proceed.  They are not going to hash the plan out in a public forum.


[ Parent ]
take a hit on their share prices (0.00 / 0)
HAHAHAH!

So you haven't be watching the share prices. There are few healthy banks in the US right now. Hundreds of regional banks are forecast to go under. The only thing keeping shares up is that the sycophants in the Senate and Treasury keep discussing things like Bad Banks massive tax payer hand outs. The only people who own shares now are those who bought them recently as open calls on govt stupidity.

~* the * Will * to go on *~


[ Parent ]
Most of the banks have some actual value as opposed to speculative value (0.00 / 0)
Citi is the most glaring exception.  I completely agree that shareholders of Citi have an "open call on government stupidity" as you put it.  However, I think they might get burned this time and, given their reason for buying the shares, they probably deserve to.

[ Parent ]
its just one of many bets (0.00 / 0)
a trader might place. they may lose on C, or not. they'll win on others.

~* the * Will * to go on *~

[ Parent ]
The key (0.00 / 0)
is to decide what you are going to do.  If you are going to nationalize, nationalize.  If you aren't, don't.

Above all else markets hate uncertainty.  


[ Parent ]
If you had your way, Chris, there would not be money for nationalization either! (0.00 / 0)
I definitely prefer nationalization to the "bad bank" approach.  (Do note, however, that there's no reason Geitner would commit to nationalization until right before he's nationalizes;  what he hasn't done as yet is rule out nationalization, which is still encouraging to me.)

But it's a little rich for you to be weighing in on this -- if it were up to you, this discussion wouldnt even exist.


If it were up to me (0.00 / 0)
Then yes, we would be nationalizing.

You are arguing that I would have voted against funding no matter what, and also that I am supporting buying the banks.

That argument makes no sense. Just because I oppose certain types of bailouts doesn't mean I oppose them all.

Pass the conditions on the bailout, and then release the funds. That is how it needs to be done.


[ Parent ]
but if and when it happens, it will be TARP funds funding nationalization, no? (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
The point of having the TARP instead of supplying the funding (4.00 / 1)
through targeted legislation is so the government can act, "at the speed of business", without telegraphing its punches.

[ Parent ]
That's the explanation (4.00 / 1)
but not the point.

[ Parent ]
What is the point then? (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Another acceptable possibility... (4.00 / 1)
Not talked about as much, is to simply use the remainder of the TARP money to form a "good bank."  Or a series of good banks with temporary government ownership.  

These banks would have the billions in TARP money as their reserves, and begin offering lines of credit to any business which was turned away by the private banks.  They'd also hire on laid-off private bank workers to operate the day to day functions of the bank.  

After a few years, and the liquidation of Citigroup, Bank of America, etc, the government could sell off the loans - or even whole banks - to PNC and whatever other private banks still survive.  

It seems under this setup most of the issues are solved - non-financial businesses don't have to worry about a credit crunch, many of the financial job losses are erased, and shareholders and executives get properly punished for their bad decisions.   Best of all, the new banks are almost assured to be worth more after a few years of operations than they cost to set up - meaning taxpayers won't get fleeced.  


A-FUCKING-MEN (0.00 / 0)
and "Please" ain't got nothing to do with it.  

~* the * Will * to go on *~

Chris (0.00 / 0)
instead of nationalizing banks etc. (are Goldman, Morgan and American Express banks!?)

we should let the laws as they exist operate (a radical idea, I know)

and restitute depositor losses so they can put their money in any one of the hundreds of smaller regional and local banks.

Let competition flourish and localism replace the failed mega-bank model.

I'd also like to see an end to the tax on savings accounts while taxing financial transactions like day-trading etc. We need to reteach saving to the American people.


guess what, though (0.00 / 0)
it doesn't matter if you don't like the plan. only Republicans criticisms are even heard. anyone to the left of Larry Summers might as well be talking to rocks. and there won't even ever be a point when they might say, "well now see, we tried what you said, and it didn't work, so let's go hear what these other people have to say", because we've already been there and it obviously didn't matter a whit. (unless you define "works" as "them what has, keeps it", in which case they've been doing OK i suppose)

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.

What makes me mad (0.00 / 0)
is that TARP Recipients are still declaring dividends to shareholders.

Wells Fargo got $25 Billion from the TARP, and didn't even change their dividend payout.  Right now Wells Fargo Common Stock is yielding over 7%, and they will payout $1.2 Billion in CASH to shareholders as a result of their January dividend distribution.  

It is outrageous that shareholders are getting anything.  


Thats actually perfectly fine (0.00 / 0)
Wells fargo didn't even need the bailout because their lending standards were actually good

http://transgendermom.blogspot....

[ Parent ]
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