Democrats Need Democratic Voters More Than Republican Voters

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 15:45


As part of their motivation in stopping the Help Families Save Their Homes act, some Democrats think they need Republican votes to win re-election:

This might be a smart tactic, but it often hurts Democrats who rely on Republican votes to win reelection. Put bluntly, it makes them look too liberal.

It is certainly true that there are some Democrats who rely upon Republican and conservative votes to win re-election. However, it is needs to be said that every Democrat needs Democratic and liberal votes to win re-election. No matter how red or blue your district is, every single Democratic member of Congress, except Joe Lieberman, won the majority of self-identified Democratic and self-identified liberal votes in his or her most recent campaign. Every. Single. One. If any Democrat were to start losing either self-identified Democratic or self-identified liberal votes, whether to third parties, to a primary challenger, to their Republican opponent, or to not voting, then that member of Congress would be in danger of losing either re-election or re-nomination.

Further, the self-identified Democratic and self-identified liberal vote is variable, even for Democratic candidates. Some Democrats win more Democratic votes than others. For example, take John Kerry vs. Barack Obama:

In 2004, 32.93% of the electorate were Kerry voters who self-identified as Democrats
In 2008, 34.71% of the electorate were Obama voters who self-identified as Democrats

In other words, President Obama boosted the Democratic vote total among self-identified Democrats by fully 1.8% of the electorate. He also did better among liberals than did Kerry:

In 2004, 17.85% of the electorate was Kerry voters who self-identified as liberals
In 2008, 19.58% of the electorate was Obama voters who self-identified as liberals

This 1.73% improvement among liberals is almost identical to the 1.78% improvement among self-identified Democrats. Further, both are larger than President Obama's improvement among self-identified Republicans (more in the extended entry):

Chris Bowers :: Democrats Need Democratic Voters More Than Republican Voters
In 2004, 1.62% of the electorate was Kerry voters who self-identified as Republicans
In 2008, 2.88% of the electorate was Obama voters who self-identified as Republicans

That is a raw improvement of only 1.26%. This was largely due to the declining number of Republicans in the electorate. They shrank from 37% of all voters in 2004 to only 32% of all voters in 2008.

Obama's gains among conservatives were roughly the same size as his gains among liberals and Democrats:

In 2004, 5.1% of the electorate was Kerry voters who self-identified as conservatives
In 2008, 6.8% of the electorate was Obama voters who self-identified as conservatives

Overall, the Democratic and liberal vote are not static, guaranteed entities for Democrats. Clearly, the amount of liberals and Democrats voting for Democratic candidates can vary from election to election  In fact, the variance can be so great, that Democrats have more to lose from alienating self-identified liberal and self-identified Democratic voters than they do self-identified Republican and self-identified conservative voters. When one considers that every Democrat is affected by the overall vote totals Democrats receive from Democrats and liberals, then, strategically speaking, if somehow you were forced to choose, it is clearly a better move for the Democratic caucus as a whole to appeal to Democrats and liberals than it is to appeal to Republicans and conservatives.

While it is true that President Obama gained slightly more from self-identified Independents (2.34%) and moderates (2.1%) than he did from either liberals or Democrats, given that the country favors government aid for homeowners who are in danger of forescloure by a whopping 64%--33% margin, clearly the Democratic congressional leadership and President Obama are doing just fine in appealing to moderates and Independents, and don't appear to need concern trolling from right-wingers on how to improve in this area.


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Thanks for pointing this out. (4.00 / 3)
Sometimes, the Blue Dogs & the New Dems just don't get it. What good is pleasing a few GOPers (very few, really, as most never bother to cross over to support any Dems) if they end up losing what's supposed to be their base?

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

That's how Kucinich wins time and time again.. (4.00 / 3)
OH-10 SHOULD be a very blue dog district... it's not a liberal hotbed by any means... Kucinich manages to stay true to himself, and at election time, reminds conservative, working democrats that his record stands with them, even if he's painted as a liberal caricature.

He wins big every time.  The blue dogs should learn from him.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
No where else to go (0.00 / 0)
Republican moderates are dropping like flies.  Take the stimulus bill.  It passed with the support of 1% of Republicans and 98% of Democrats (on the final read) in Congress (House plus Senate).

The Progressive Punch score of the most conservative Democrat, Walt Minnick is 44 about identical to Lincoln Chafee's score (and less liberal because Chaffeee was inclined to vote with Republicans on procedural issues while Minnick would vote with Democrats).  Chaffee is gone.  Only three Republicans from the Senate score above 17.06 (the retiring Voinovich): Specter (37.06), Snowe (36.95) and Collins (34.95).  The highest House score (lifetime) is Chris Smith at 23.32.

Between retirements and electoral defeats (primary or general), moderates have no Republican alternative.  Six of the eight Republican Senators defeated or retired in 2008 were moderate at least by Republican standards (Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman, John Warner, Ted Stevens, Pete Domenici, John Sunnunu).

Yes, considering the alternative, Democrats are in the driver's seat.


Giving Political Incompetence A Bad Name (4.00 / 1)
Not to detract from the main thrust of this diary, but this is a particularly bad issue for moderates to try to hang this sort of argument on.  This is the place to be picking up populist support from all across the political spectrum.  Only the most politically incompetent or abjectly corrupt could fail to notice this point.

This is not mandatory gay marriage for 13-year olds, folks.

This is It's A Wonderful Life.

Just how much sense do you need to have to choose the role of George Bailey over that of Mr. Potter?

Hmmmm. I sense a new political identity bubbling up to stand alongside of the Bush Dogs--or perhaps take their place as Bush himself is now off the scene: Pottersville Dems.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


Uncle Billy (0.00 / 0)
Don't forget, Paul.  We also have the big banks playing the role of Uncle Billy: carelessly losing the deposit and then screwing the little guys.

Lionel Barrymore is better than Mike Pence at playing the villain though.  


[ Parent ]
Blue Dogs like Republican voters (4.00 / 1)
My Blue Dog Representative, Collin Peterson, gets 60-70% of the vote against token Republican opposition. He gets 74% of his funding from PACS, and I'm sure that there are plenty of lobbyists and big-biz people among the 26%. He doesn't even bother to communicate with DFL county leaders.

He calls himself a deficit hawk, but he's the #1 guy for ag pork. A complete phony. I'm hoping to find a primary candidate against him for next year.

No one should ever, ever donate to the national Democratic party, only to good individual candidates, and to the primary challengers of bad Democratic candidates.  


CORRECTION: Lieberman is NOT a Dem (0.00 / 0)
No matter how red or blue your district is, every single Democratic member of Congress, except Joe Lieberman, won the majority of self-identified Democratic and self-identified liberal votes in his or her most recent campaign.

Lieberman is of the Lieberman for Lieberman Party.  Let's not accidentally perpetuate the hoax that he's a Democrat.


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