Obama Is Done

by: Matt Stoller

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 16:09


(I'm on the Peter B. Collins show right now discussing this blog post. - promoted by Matt Stoller)

To win in 2008, you have to find a base of support that is bigger than the other person's base of support.  Barack Obama has not done that, and will probably not do that.  The Clinton campaign has down up establishment support, but has not locked down progressives.  Only a strategy that brings progressives, African-Americans, and young people can block a Clinton nomination, and that requires a real withdrawal strategy on Iraq and some real leadership.  Obama, with his recent speech and his Oprah obsession, has now made it quite clear that his strategy is targeted at elites and that he will not pull this coalition together.
Matt Stoller :: Obama Is Done

I had a conversation about the various campaigns and their internet strategies with a reporter yesterday, and we were chatting about who was doing best.  Clinton, Dodd, and Richardson are using the blogs as a messaging vehicle, whereas Edwards sees us more as a constituency.  Both are reasonable strategies, though I prefer the latter.  The Obama campaign basically does nothing.  It's interesting.  Whenever Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, or Clinton gives a major address, I have content in my inbox so that I can put it up here to discuss with all of us.  Not so for Obama.  I don't know why this is, but the reporter I was talking to said that he also has a tough time getting in touch with Obama, and major funders have told me the same thing.  There's a paralyzing sense of inaction on the Obama campaign, and I think at this point we just have to conclude that it comes from the top.

Throughout 2005-2006, Obama's excuse for inaction, which I hit him on quite early, was 'I'm just a freshman'.  But this was always a ruse, an excuse for not leading, especially on progressive issues.  Obama after all was tutored by Lieberman in the Senate, and has done everything he can to fit into the culture of an institution he consistently derided as thinking too small or as too Beltway.  The episode that stands out is the shameful period during the Military Commissions Act, when Obama was silent until it became clear the bill was going to pass.  Here was Atrios at the time expressing frustration all of us felt:

Hey, Senator Obama, now'd be a nice time to stop fucking talking about "America coming together" and start getting America to come together to oppose torturing people.

This was another one I liked, when Atrios was encouraging people to call Obama's office.

Ask when his office is going to issue a statement in support of or against torture.

While he came out against the MCA, it was on the day the bill passed, and it was too late to make a difference.  Making grandiloquent speeches on progressive issues when he knows it does not matter is his MO.  It's just who he is.

In his political dealings, Obama has actually been much worse.  He refused to surrogate for Lamont in the General election after a lukewarm endorsement he had to make.  The Lamont campaign had to beg him to send out an email for Lamont, after Obama had gone out of his way to back Lieberman in the primary.  In other displays of DC-think, Obama backed, strongly, Tammy Duckworth over the grassroots progressive Christine Cegelis in the IL-06 primary, and often backed Chicago machine candidates over reformers after winning a Senate seat that progressives had helped him garner.  Obama isn't one of us, and in his political career he has shown himself entirely unequipped to lead in a time of extremism.  It doesn't much matter than he worked as a community organizer in his twenties.  At crunch time, Obama is almost always absent, or even on the other side.

As Chris and I have noted, today is his 'big speech' on Iraq, and it was simply irrelevant to the debate.  Here's Dodd, going after him:

I was disappointed that Senator Obama's thoughts on Iraq today didn't include a firm, enforceable deadline for redeployment, and dismayed that neither he nor Senator Clinton will give an unequivocal answer on whether they would support a measure if it didn't have such an enforceable deadline.

It is clear to me - especially after yesterday's testimony - that half-measures aren't going to stop this President or end our involvement in this civil war. I thought it was clear to Senators Obama and Clinton as well after they finally came around to supporting the Feingold-Reid measure and voting against a blank-check supplemental spending bill this spring. If 'enough was enough' then, why isn't it after the bloodiest summer of the war?

Senator Obama has a gift for soaring rhetoric, but, on this critical issue, we need to know the substance of his position with specificity. Without tying a date certain to funding how does he plan to enforce his call for an immediate redeployment?

The only specificity Senator Obama offered was a call for a new constitution, but that will do nothing other than provide the Iraqis and the Bush Administration another excuse to delay -- the ink is barely dry on the constitution they have.

It is going to take bold leadership to change our course in Iraq. We need to do more than write letters to the President, we need to be clear with him.

I urge Senators Obama and Clinton not to backtrack on the need for a firm, enforceable deadline and state clearly and directly whether they will support an Iraq measure if it does not include one."

This is exactly right.  Obama will not lead on Iraq, but worse than that, he will not even address it.  A speech that refuses to deal with funding votes in the Senate and residual troops for the President post-2009 is not a statement on Iraq at all.  It's as if I were to ask him if I could borrow his extra umbrella because it's raining outside, and he were to passionately talk about the need for it to stop raining.  He's just avoiding the subject.  And why should I pick Obama if I want someone who avoids the subject?  I can get a better version of that in the form of Hillary Clinton.  At least she's honest about not being an incrementalist, instead of bashing DC in speeches while doing nothing to change the culture he's very much a part of.


Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Obama Is Done | 85 comments
Uh-Oh! (4.00 / 9)
Now you've put yer foot in it!

The Obamaites will be swarming like fire ants all over ya!

No use ducking as they will boil right out of dem innertubes their lil' mandible ready to shred ya.

As for me, I's say an excellent post indeed. Let's stop screwin' around with Joey's guy and ask Edwards to lead on Iraq and the other issues The Hill refuses to.

Then we will see.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


Matt (4.00 / 3)
Who or what is stopping you from putting your massive leverage behind a candidate that fits your ideals?

Talking of leadership, why are you guys not stepping up and telling us who you support out right. What? you want to wait until it is a foregone conclusion and throw your weight behind the winner. Is that leadership?

You guys have a megaphone here and are squeamish about your choice. However blabbering about how someone else is not leading is the new outrage. I will love to see you or any of the front pagers come out for a candidate loud and clear.

Most commenters here have a candidate they support. True, you guys are or think you are more astute politically, but come on now. The candidate poll isn't getting any larger...unless you are praying for Mr Gore to jump in.

This is your blog...follow us since you refused to lead in telling us who you are supporting. 


Why? (4.00 / 2)
It's clear neither Matt nor Chris is entirely happy with any of the candidates. The only ones to have called for a complete withdrawal of troops have been either a) generally not progressive or b) non-viable.

That being the case, why would they throw their support behind a candidate? Doing so just removes much of the force from their criticisms of other candidates. I think Matt's doing a lot more good savaging anybody he feels is failing to run a good progressive campaign.

People can make their own minds up, they don't need to be told who to support by those who run the blogs.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
Unless Gore gets in ... (4.00 / 4)
Matt and Chris are gonna have to chose from the known candidates .. so they might as well pick one and go with it ..  if they want to talk about leading .. why not show some leadership here .. there isn't gonna be any Feingold type white knight(unless as stated before .. Gore gets in) ... so it's getting pretty close to shit or get off the pot time

[ Parent ]
Not Really (0.00 / 0)
Picking a candidate to back isn't leading, especially when there's no one worth endorsing at this point. Whipping the suck-ass candidates do better is the best thing we can do.

It doesn't make much sense to have an "Anybody but X" campaign that throws support behind candidate Y, because candidate Y is just as lame. The correct course of action is to explain what people should know about candidates X, Y and Z and why they should demand more.

Once there's a nominee we'll all be working to put them over the top, but even then we can and must continue to push on the issues that matter.

Me | My Work | Future Majority


[ Parent ]
I disagree (0.00 / 0)
everyone here knows Matt has a horse in the race. And it is not Obama. Why is it hard for him to say that? I mean readers could read his criticism from thereon with the knowledge that he is not an independent observer in the race. If you guys really believe that at this stage in the game a guy as political as Matt doesn't have his mind set on a candidate, then I got a bridge in michigan to sell you.

[ Parent ]
Ok, I don't watch closely enough, and I don't know. (0.00 / 0)
Who is it?  Edwards?  Dodd?

I've got a reasonably good idea where Chris Bowers is and has been, but as for Stoller, either you're exaggerating mightily or I just didn't notice.  Both are possible.


[ Parent ]
I think... (4.00 / 2)
....it's pretty obvious that it's Edwards.

[ Parent ]
Kucinich - "non-viable"? (0.00 / 0)
I don't see how anyone has the right to make the statement that a candidate like Kucinich is not "viable".

He has not collected the vast sums of Clinton or Obama - but if people who agree with what he is saying would support him and publicize his statements he would quickly become "viable".

Another thing I feel is that if a candidate does not or cannot express themselves plainly and succinctly on an issue such as the war in Iraq - they do not deserve our continued attention or our vote.

Instead of headlining a tepid tome in Obama-speak, why shouldn't blogs focus on the speeches of a Kucinich? That's how a candidate becomes viable.
That's how great leaders happen. Think about Martin Luther King or Malcolm X.
They inspired millions by the force of their words and ideas. They didn't need the corporate sponsors.

Of course, in our society, now as then, taking a strong moral position can be a very dangerous thing.


[ Parent ]
It's harsh, but I stand by it (4.00 / 1)
He's been raising less than he did last time around and not really polling any better. Certainly the blogs aren't influential enough to raise him up their on their own. He's generally good on the issues and the treatment he receives from certain sectors is grievously unfair, but I just don't see his path to the nomination right now.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
Go ahead - stand by it. (0.00 / 0)
If you elect a candidate whom you would consider "viable" and he or she doesn't represent your ideas or your ideals, what have you gained?

"Viable" with respect to what?

Either you vote for someone who represents you or you don't.


[ Parent ]
You misunderstand me (0.00 / 0)
I'm not saying you shouldn't vote for a candidate just because they're not viable. It's your vote.

But if you endorse a candidate, then any further comments you make on the campaigns of his or her rivals cannot be considered to be neutral observations any longer and therefore will lose a lot of their force.

With this in mind, one has to balance up the loss of influence due to making an endorsement with the potential long-term benefits is your endorsed candidate wins. Since a 'non-viable' candidate has only a small chance of winning, it often makes sense not to advocate too hard on their behalf if it harms your message in other areas.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
I agree (4.00 / 4)
I support John Edwards.  He is for real change.  He will bring many Democrats into the House and Senate with him and will enable real change in this country and then implement it.

I also support Edwards! (4.00 / 5)
glad to see Stoller finally gets Obama.
And a Hillary prez will elect more Blue Dogs and Centrists!


[ Parent ]
you seem familiar somehow... (4.00 / 4)
don't I know you?

Actually, I like Obama, but I do believe that he is not the leader we need right now. His style of leadership is building consenus, which is not what we need right now. We need a tough kick ass warrior right now, who uses words like he would swords, not to play fencing, though that's good too, but to slay a bunch of dragons. That's why his blunt use of words usually go over well...people are sick of bullshit.


[ Parent ]
Dodd accusing Obama of not leading? (4.00 / 9)
Dodd had an opportunity to "lead" on Iraq in 2003. Instead he voted in favor of authorizing the war, and he opposed Levin Amendment that would have called for some degree of accountability to the UN before starting the war.

So did Edwards. So did Clinton.

So, am I to judge Dodd on his words or his actions? During the 2006 Senate race,  two other CT Congressmen talked up a hellava storm: Joe Lieberman told people "no one wants to bring home the troops more than I do," and Chris Shays called for timelines for troop withdrawal. Both, however, have continued to strongly support the war.

So, talk is cheap. Yes, now Dodd is taking the right stance, and yes, Obama needs to show some guts, and yes the Iraq War debate puts the leadership of party up for play. I agree that Obama needs to show more leadership.

But I have a memory longer than the length of this campaign. I've lived in CT almost all my life. Please, don't try to sell me Dodd's leadership qualities. Good for him for taking the right stance. Let's hope the other candidates get this vote right too.


I agree in parts. (4.00 / 1)
Obama's Campaign is virtually soundless when it comes to the net.  He is.  I have stated so, repeatedly.  Though he does have strong representation of supporters, his campaign does not do an outreach.  I must admit, I have had an opportunity for some inside things, but not to the extent of availability as Matt speaks.

Now, I disagree on his AA support.  It is there.  And I know he is not dead.  I would rather chance on a man who is willing to take a chance, outside the box, than with one already entrenched and you will see very little change.  Yes, you know what you will get with Clinton, but is that what you want?  Oh, but wait, since she entered this campaign her speeches "change" depending on what group to pander.  If you don't believe me, listen to them all since her announcement and you decide.

And after this speech does anyone even remotely "think" he will not vote for the Feingold bill?  He most certainly will.  Getting out of Iraq, is getting out of Iraq.

And I like your writing Matt, especially the going after the Blue Dogs.  But, don't get upset because a candidate does not send you his speech "ahead of time".  Get mad if he makes a speech and don't stand behind what he said, in the speech.


Plus (0.00 / 0)
it has been clear from the beginning that Obama never planned to court the progressive vote and that he is not suddenly going to morph into a progressive political spokesperson.

Period.


[ Parent ]
Very good assessment (4.00 / 4)
I think many were hopeful Obama would say something powerful today. 

You quote Dodd which is a very strong statement from a colleague who has been speaking out.  And he is right that we need a date certain and substance not just soaring rhetoric.

The candidate who is talking about bold leadership and has been acting on is Edwards.  Here is a key paragraph from his statement.

"Enough is enough.  We don't need to 'begin' to end the war now.  What we need to do now is actually end the war.  This is about right and wrong.  Our young men and women are dying every day for a failed policy.  Every member of Congress who believes this war must end, from Senators Obama and Clinton to Senator Warner, has a moral responsibility to use every tool available to them, including a filibuster, to force the president to change course. Congress must stand firm and say: No timetable, no funding. No excuses."

Edwards has been speaking out since last summer.  His "We the People campaign" put pressure on Obama and Clinton.  Dodd speaking out has been great because he is in the senate.  We need a coordinated campaign to overcome the grip that the corporatists have on the government in both parties.

Kudos to you for making such a strong statement.

Join other progressives at EENRblog


Did Dodd read or listen to the speech (4.00 / 10)
before releasing that statement?

Doesn't look like it to me.

The Obama bashing here is tiresome. Seriously, it's not remotely accurate and it isn't even entertaining. And, "his Oprah obsession"?? Looks to me like everyone else is obsessed with the fact that Oprah endorsed him and raised nearly $4 million for him.


Did you even read the blog (4.00 / 4)
before bashing it? Oprah has never been mentioned on the front page  site. Ever.

[ Parent ]
It's in this post... (4.00 / 8)
Obama, with his recent speech and his Oprah obsession, has now made it quite clear that his strategy is targeted at elites and that he will not pull this coalition together.

I haven't seen any Oprah obsession from Obama. I've seen lots of other people complain about her support of him - and that seems like what's being said here. Oprah = elites. That's the message I get from that sentence. I don't have Oprah's viewer demographics at hand, but I've been middle class all my life and a Democrat all my life and I watch her occasionally. I'm hardly the only one in that position.


[ Parent ]
Did you read the blog... (4.00 / 1)
where Oprah obsession is noted.

[ Parent ]
Chris (4.00 / 7)
First, Elise was quoting a post.

Second, her point about Dodd is well taken. That email makes it clear he had drafted his "response" to Obama before he had any idea what was in the speech. The first sentence is flat out false: "I was disappointed that Senator Obama's thoughts on Iraq today didn't include a firm, enforceable deadline for redeployment". How is "one year" not a firm deadline?

I suppose Matt can criticize all he wants for Obama not sending him enough emails, but Dodd's attack is ludicrous.


[ Parent ]
I read you guys but... (4.00 / 7)
I'd still rather have the Oprah endorsement than the Bowers or Stoller endorsement!

[ Parent ]
I just checked (4.00 / 1)
And I guess there were two, very off-hand, fairly irrelevant mentions of Obama on the front page. There are six overall mentions. But it still seems off-target.

Oprah on Open Left


[ Parent ]
Three today alone - (4.00 / 2)
Seemed like a lot as I read them.

[ Parent ]
Two recent post titles on this blog really do say it all. (4.00 / 3)
"Still Waiting for Barack Obama" by brooklyngirl, and "Obama is Done" by Stoller.

For a while, I harbored the hope that Obama's campaign was designed as a stage one / stage two affair, where stage one was this "our politics is broken" appetizer and stage two was a much more specific articulation of where precisely he wanted to take the country... more specific than just the Big Rock Candy Mountain.

And I was hoping that this stage two was gonna launch in September, because "you don't launch new products in August," and because that would be good timing if you were worried about peaking too early.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that ain't gonna happen.  A lot of people are still waiting for Obama, but he isn't gonna come.  He's not waiting for us, he's not looking for us, he may not even like us much anymore.  He does seem to be running a campaign designed to impress DC, at a time when DC can't award him the nomination over Hillary.  As Stoller said, I don't know who he thinks his constituency is, but it ain't progressives.

Anyway, I vacillate between waiting for Obama and giving up on him.  The choice doesn't matter, because I don't think anyone or anything can lift Edwards over Hillary and to the nomination.  DC hates him, the press hates him, and that seals the deal.  Sorry, but it's true.  You don't have to be DC's baby to win, but you can't have their undisguised contempt and still win.  Which is too bad, because Edwards (and Dodd) both have some good platforms, and would be good presidents.  I'm just awfully hard-pressed to see Edwards winning the nomination, especially with Obama taking up all the challenger oxygen.


You now sound like Obama (4.00 / 6)
You give up before you try.  There is another constituency besides the progressives - that is the people outside of DC. 

Edwards has a huge challenge with the forces arrayed against him.  The problem is that they are against him for the very reasons many of us are for him.  He can't speak the truth and say he wants to change the game and still cosy up so they will like him.  This is a struggle for the soul of the country.  I think a fighter is what we need. 

I see Edwards getting better and better, and he has had missteps.  But he is who we have and I think better than many we could have had.  Dodd is a good person but he will never fire people up.  I'd rather fight and lose, than give up before the game is fully engaged.  Even when Lamont lost, he changed perceptions of Lieberman and the war for the country. 

Join other progressives at EENRblog


[ Parent ]
ditto on that! (4.00 / 1)
Hi pioneer!

[ Parent ]
Edwards could win! (4.00 / 2)
but you'd actually have to GOTV for him - rather than making excuses.
Or - the alternative is another Centrist Clinton - and more Blue Dogs.


[ Parent ]
Actually, what I'm working towards (0.00 / 0)
is Clinton the Inevitable (not working towards her, but not taking up arms against the juggernaut either), and a bigger progressive majority in Congress.  Senate races, House races, a much larger majority.  I think the size of the Democratic margin in the Congress will do more to determine how progressive the next four years are than will which of Hillary ObEdwards occupy the White House.  In particular, the strength of the GOP in the Senate will do more to determine what we can pass, than will which of the three Democrats holds the White House.

So Elizabeth Dole, Mitch McConnell, Ted Stevens, and Pete Domenici are the targets of significance (that, and defending Mary Landrieu).  Hillary with 57 votes will be more liberal than Obama with 54, or Edwards with 51.  And given that I really feel that only Obama could have stopped Hillary, and he won't do it, and while I wish it could happen I just am deeply skeptical that Edwards can, I'm gonna go ahead and try to make sure that Hillary has 57 votes and not 53.  That's the best way I can think of to drag our future to the left.

Anyway, there's no reason to think that Clinton winning necessarily means more Blue Dogs.  She doesn't appoint the Congress.


[ Parent ]
How many Progressives were elected (4.00 / 4)
while the Centrist Clintons were at the helm?
Centrism has no core values - hence, the Clintons didn't build the Democratic Party base - even as Repubs were building theirs ON core values.
Once again - during a Centrist Clinton prez, more Blue Dogs and Centrists will be elected.

[ Parent ]
That is so true. nt (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
A Logical Conclusion Would Be (4.00 / 1)
That Obama has been running for Clinton's VP slot all along.

Or that he's strategically tone-deaf.

But, I repeat myself.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Ya think? (0.00 / 0)
I thought the Clinton and Obama campaigns didn't like each other?

I think if Clinton is the nominee she would do well to double up and pick a woman VP. I think Gov. Napolitano of Arizona is the best HRC VP choice. Hillary isn't getting the southern male vote if she picks Brett Farve as VP so she may as well break the glass ceiling for women VPs as well. I have a lot of problems with HRC but electability isn't one of them. She'll win if she's the nominee.

If Obama loses I think he licks his wounds and runs for Governor of Illinois in 2010. He's young and won't be hearing any inexperience questions running as a Gov. in 2016 (or if something goes terribly wrong, 2012).

Edwards is in to win, not be VP. If he loses, I think he happily goes home.

John McCain


[ Parent ]
Read My Second Line, Please! (0.00 / 0)
The answer to your first line is my second line.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Bah (0.00 / 0)
We disagree. But that's OK.

John McCain

[ Parent ]
Honest Question (0.00 / 0)
Why is "no residual troops" the responsible course of action?

one more thing (4.00 / 1)
And is a 6 month complete withdrawal responsible or even do-able?

The answer, to military experts, is a negative, according to Sen. Biden.

Where does the Fmr NATO Supreme Allied Commander (great title) Gen. Wes Clark, Sen. Webb, Sen Kerry, etc. align on these questions?


[ Parent ]
because the neocon objective (4.00 / 3)
in this Iraq exercise, as much as anything, was to obtain permanent bases in a puppet regime in the Middle East as a platform from which to use the American military hammer to pound down all the other pesky Middle East nails, including Iran.

In a word - imperialism.  So "no residual troops" is actually a standin/shorthand for rejection of the neocon strategy of enforcing our will/fixing all problems at the point of a gun and an explicit rejection of the entire adventure as wrong in conception, not execution.  To cling to residual forces and permanent bases is to vie, in a very underhanded way, for the support of the folks who brought you Iraq and who still believe that it would have worked if executed correctly. 

For the candidates, it's a question of who do you love best?  The DFHs who want an America that is not perpetually at war with somebody, or the beltway advocates of a muscular American foreign policy who seem to need semi-annual orgies of smart munitions to feel okay about themselves.

Right now, Muscle Beach is winning.


[ Parent ]
John Edwards has been speaking out since 2002 (4.00 / 4)
only this is what he was saying.  Here is the true champion of the Progressive Movement five years ago today:

"As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I firmly believe that the issue of Iraq is not about politics. It's about national security. We know that for at least 20 years, Saddam Hussein has obsessively sought weapons of mass destruction through every means available. We know that he has chemical and biological weapons today. He has used them in the past, and he is doing everything he can to build more. Each day he inches closer to his longtime goal of nuclear capability - a capability that could be less than a year away."

"The path of confronting Saddam is full of hazards. But the path of inaction is far more dangerous. This week, a week where we remember the sacrifice of thousands of innocent Americans made on 9-11, the choice could not be starker. Had we known that such attacks were imminent, we surely would have used every means at our disposal to prevent them and take out the plotters. We cannot wait for such a terrible event - or, if weapons of mass destruction are used, one far worse - to address the clear and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq."



... compared to Obama in the fall of 2002 (4.00 / 3)
OCT 2002: Obama Opposed To 'Dumb' And 'Rash' Iraq War.
"I don't oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne."
[Remarks of Illinois State Sen. Barack Obama Against Going to War with Iraq, 10/26/2002]

OCT 2002: Obama Said That Iraq War Had 'Undetermined' Cost, Length and
Consequences.

  "I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda."
[Remarks of Illinois State Sen. Barack Obama Against Going to War with Iraq,
10/26/2002]



[ Parent ]
That's not new news - (4.00 / 4)
but Obama voting with Repubs to fund the war and oppose timetables for 2 years is new to some Obama supporters who'd been led to believe he'd "opposed" the war from the gitgo.

[ Parent ]
Voting for Preemption (4.00 / 4)
is not the same as refusing to use de-funding the troops as a way out of the mess.  To most Americans, supporting the troops means giving them what they need no matter how they were called and the proper place to fight political battles is apart from the troops.  The difference may be lost on some gotcha Progressives but it isn't lost on most people. 

[ Parent ]
Progressives were working overtime (4.00 / 3)
in June 2006 - urging senators to vote for Kerry's redeployment bill.
Obama voted against it!  then, 6 months later and a month before announcing for prez - sponsored his own redeployment bill.
 

[ Parent ]
Give Me A Time Machine (4.00 / 6)
So we can bring back the Obama of yesteryear, and maybe then we can talk.

Except, of couse, that the Obama of yesteryear turned into the Obama of today.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Big bolshy yarblockos (4.00 / 4)
It's gotta take cojones the size of wrecking balls to suggest that Obama, among the front pack of Dem candidates, is the choice of the elites.

And it's disingenuous to single Obama out for the crime the entire Democratic Party is currently committing: namely not opposing what needs opposing -- which, incidentally, he *is* doing, but he's just not being *vocal* enough about it at the *right time*.

Well, speaking out against late and opposing something is much better than, say, speaking out against and then *approving* something.


It's much easier... (4.00 / 4)
to tear something down than to build it up.

It's a shame too. I really thought that this blog was going to be more about ideas than political maneuvering and that it was really going to go after the ideas of the "Left" and analyze them in a strong way.

It seems that no one can escape the short-sighted furor of the 2008 primary campaign.


[ Parent ]
it sounds like (4.00 / 1)
You'd be happier reading academic journals.

This isn't snark BTW, I really don't see how you would have thought a blog run by Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller would bypass the 2008 election.


[ Parent ]
I certainly did not expect it to. (4.00 / 1)
It's just not as much a discussion even of the 2008 primaries as it is random, petty sniping at the candidates. Any Democratic blog is going to talk about the 2008 election, that much is obvious. I don't have a problem with discussing the election or the primaries and some of the analysis here has been both interesting and entertaining.

However, from the "Edwards is [a little bit] racist" to "Obama is done", it just feels as if it has devolved a bit. I guess I overstated my point a bit, I just had higher hopes for the overall level of argumentation.

Maybe I was wrong, and I have definitely enjoyed parts of this blog. The discussion with Senator Durbin, for example, was top-notch.


[ Parent ]
aoei (4.00 / 6)
I don't think Matt is saying Obama is the choice of elites, but that his overcautious campaign style is geared towards at least not pissing off the elites.

The gist of this post boils down to this:  Obama is losing and he is clearly not willing to double down in order to close the gap with Hillary.  He is evidently content to play it safe and lose, perhaps with an eye to some future nomination race or other higher office (VP).

For all those claiming Obama is this grand transformational candidate, that should be worth some sober thought. 


[ Parent ]
And, Frankly This Has Been My Problem With Him All Along (4.00 / 4)
"Can't we all get along?" was a poignant plea coming from Rodney King.  But coming from a would-be transformational President?  Not so much.

I don't hear it from Abe Lincoln. I don't hear it from FDR.  It's more Gerald Ford than anyone else that comes to mind.  And he himself said it best, "I'm a Ford, not a Lincoln."

The fact that Obama thinks that's transformational just makes me shake my head in disbelief.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Fair and Balanced Stoller (4.00 / 9)
Matt Stoller, 10/22/06:
"I want Obama to run because I think he'll crumple, and I want him to crumple under a national spotlight so that he realizes how problematic his behavior has been and so that we realize that we have to stop worshiping rock stars."

http://www.mydd.com/...

Your early critique of Obama came when he made a statement supporting hearings investigating warantless wiretapping on Dec. 20, 2005. The story broke Dec. 16 with the Senate out of session (I'm guessing). You took one paragraph from a story SUPPORTING investigating it, parsed it as you pleased, and wrote a post slamming Obama that basically called Obama a lightweight for sending a Christmas card and not making a judgement to cuff Bush then and there based on a newspaper report in the NYT. The NYT gets things wrong sometimes if you've haven't noticed. Constitutional lawyers tend to need more evidence than a newspaper story to convict.

Why do you pretend there is some recent final straw that caused you to give up on Obama? Why not openly say you don't care for the guy and never did? You've been calling Obama 'sneering', 'pandering' and 'scared' for over a year. Stop pretending like there's anything he could do to please you other than be another person. It's perfectly acceptable for you to not like the guy. Just stop pretending you have anything close to an open mind on this matter.

John McCain


Even the strong Obama supporters I know... (0.00 / 0)
Even the strong Obama supporters I know are concerned he is crumpling, so I am not sure exactly what your complaint is.

sPh


[ Parent ]
Is that like, (4.00 / 3)
"Some people say Obama is crumpling."

[ Parent ]
No (4.00 / 2)
No, it isn't like "some people", because it is restricted to the six close friends and family members who drove a very long distance to attend Obama's announcement in Springfield Illinois, who have tracked and supported his campaign since, and who are now becoming disillusioned for the reasons discussed throughout this thread [note:  I was not then and am not now an Obama supporter].  That's not a random sample or a statistically-valid sample or anything else, but it is a definite group of people from flyover country who were once enthusiastic and now are not.

sPh


[ Parent ]
It's Not Pretense (4.00 / 4)
I think I see Obama in very similar terms.  He did some things a long ways back that made me deeply skeptical of him, but (1) there was no one else who clearly broke into "I can wholeheartedly support him" territory and (2) there was a persuasive case to be made that he might still develop a compelling progressive campaign, defining himself and the issues more clearly.  Now, Matt's saying that he finds it too late to keep hope alive on #2 anymore.

You can disagree with all of this, of course.  But it reflects a defensible perspective that is perfectly up-front in explaining itself.  There is no hidden agenda. 

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Link to full text of Obama plan (4.00 / 2)
Here's the link to the full text of the plan.

Section on troop withdrawal and residual forces:

All Combat Troops Redeployed by 2009:
Barack Obama would immediately begin redeploying American troops from Iraq. The withdrawal would be strategic and phased, directed by military commanders on the ground and done in consultation with the Iraqi government. Troops would be removed from secure areas first, with troops remaining longer in more volatile areas. The drawdown would begin immediately with one to two combat brigades redeploying each month and all troops engaged in combat operations out by the end of next year.

Residual Force to Remain:
Under the Obama plan, American troops may remain in Iraq or the region. These American troops will protect American diplomatic and military personnel in Iraq, and continue striking at al Qaeda in Iraq. If Iraq makes political progress and their security forces are not sectarian, we would also continue training of the Iraqi Security Forces. In the event of an outbreak of genocide, we would reserve the right to intervene, with the international community, if that intervention was needed to provide civilians with a safe-haven.

Section on stabilizing the government:

A United Nations-Led Constitutional Convention:
Iraq's constitution, approved in an October 2005 referendum, is the product of a Kurdish-Shiite deal. Iraq's government was supposed to immediately revise the constitution to be more inclusive of Sunnis and to develop a more sustainable balance between Baghdad's centralized authority and provincial governments. They never did. Barack Obama would have the United Nations convene a constitutional convention in Iraq that would include representatives from all levels of Iraqi society. The convention would not adjourn until national reconciliation is reached and contentious questions such as federalism, oil revenue sharing, and de-Ba'athification are resolved.

Refuse to Provide U.S. Assistance to Sectarian Actors:
The Obama plan would encourage the Iraqi government to adopt policies that give regional and local groups a sufficient stake in the center so they are deterred from attempting to overthrow the central government or completely break away. He would work to ensure local communities can protect themselves without threatening other groups. He would fight for greater transparency in local security efforts to reduce anxieties among all sects that America intends to support one sect over another. Obama also would crack down on the use of American foreign assistance to sectarian ends or by sectarian actors. This problem was made clear by two recent studies, one of which concluded the United States cannot account for 190,000 weapons provided to Iraqi Security Forces and another which found weapons issued by the United States to Iraqi Security Forces among Kurdish militants in Turkey.



I read and weep... (0.00 / 0)
Here is an excerpt from Obama's speech a few days ago:

"We should enter into talks with the Iraqi government to discuss the process of our drawdown. We must get out strategically and carefully, removing troops from secure areas first, and keeping troops in more volatile areas until later. But our drawdown should proceed at a steady pace of one or two brigades each month. If we start now, all of our combat brigades should be out of Iraq by the end of next year."

I don't believe that we need to enter into talks with the Iraqi "government".
I don't believe we need to withdraw "strategically and carefully."
I don't believe we should leave our troops in "volatile areas until later".
I don't believe that we should commit to a process that is projected to take a year and a half.

I think we should insist that the Senate pass funding legislation that is targeted solely for the purpose of airlifting all of our soldiers out of this civil war.


[ Parent ]
Here is a full link to the Obama Speech, in Clinton, IA (0.00 / 0)
Come on Matt (4.00 / 5)
Matt, do you actually get paid by the Edwards campaign or are you just hoping for some reward later? 

The pretentiousness and condescension of your posts about Obama have really gotten out of hand.  I think it's very underhanded to pretend that you are objective, when every post clearly shows a preference towards Edwards.

This will probably be deleted and I may be banned, but enough is enough.


I guess (4.00 / 3)
jerome @mydd pass the baton....

[ Parent ]
Yeah (4.00 / 4)
I guess he attacks Edwards just to throw everyone off the trail. He's not fooling you, I guess.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

[ Parent ]
examples? (4.00 / 1)
Could you point me towards some examples of where he whole heartily attacks Edwards with even half of the venom in this post?  Every time he "attacks" Edwards it sounds like he's in a job interview and someone just asked him to describe his weaknesses - nothing of substance. 

[ Parent ]
He did call John Edwards (4.00 / 2)
a little bit racist, after all.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

[ Parent ]
Considering what edwards did Stoller was being too nice (0.00 / 0)
The fact that stronger edwards supporters found any criticism of their candidate about issues of race unacceptable speaks more about why they don't like Obama or Hillary.

[ Parent ]
To be honest (0.00 / 0)
Progressives I suspect are more general election voters.  They certainly didn't give Dean his victory.

Ladies & Gentlemen... (4.00 / 2)
meet the new Jerome Armstrong!

ehh (0.00 / 0)
none of the top 3 are "done" yet.  I see no reason yet to encourage any of the top 3 to be "done" yet.

I hope these three fight it out and stay equally strong for as long as they can.

-jason The UpTake


Reality Check (0.00 / 0)
"At crunch time, Obama is almost always absent"

Oct 26th, 2002: http://en.wikisource...

Sept 12th, 2002 (Today): http://politicaltick...



that was... (0.00 / 0)
....five years ago.


[ Parent ]
Obama is Done (4.00 / 5)
An astute and intelligent analysis from Stoller and Bowers. One other thing signaled early on that Obama was not a serious contender:

Obama never was an organic candidate unlike, the self made Bill Clinton, who masterminded and managed his own social and political network for the presidency from his time in university onwards. For good or for ill, Clinton was his own campaign manager and tirelessly plodded and plotted towards the presidency. Obama on the other hand is something of a petri dish creation. Grown in an incubator of assorted interests drawn from a coalition of Chicago's monied leaders, disgruntled ex-Clinton administration types and African-American aspiring middle classes and elites. Obama was the prize horse and his backers were sure he could take the prize away from Hillary Clinton with the black vote as their secret weapon. Obama unlike Bill Clinton did not have to scrap, beg, seduce, cajoal, triangulate his way to the presidency, Obama just had "to be" like a GQ model or show horse, all Obama had to do was to strut his considerable stuff. Others would ensure the money, publicity and support flowed in. In a way, as a candidate, Obama was always a bit spoilt, a bit of a diva. Languidly elegant in crisp white shirts, he never seemed to pound the pavement in threadworn shoes and threadbare clothes  like the 1992 Bill Clinton in New Hampshire who played Willy Loman eager to close the next sale as if his life depended on it. Obama is not prepared for the grim dull slog of running a campaign, he expected and still does, to be hoisted on the shoulder to easy victory by the black vote. The big shock though and a puzzle to Obama and his supporters is that a majority of the black vote has not yet significantly broken his way. The seemingly easy calculus of denying and defeating Hillary with the black vote  does not appear to have panned out and in some respects has taken the wind out of Obama's sails. Obama, in other words never really had a deeply pressing urgent agenda that he would bust his guts to see done as president. He was just there. A promising candidate in the right place, at the right time, and that was good enough for him and his backers. Unfortunately voters can smell lack of urgency, or fire in the belly or whatever you want to call it. Especially blue collar, lower income workers both black and white, who litteraly cannot afford Obama as a "feel good" candidate. They want someone who they percieve will fight for their interests till the last dog dies.



you're officially a tool. n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
A descriptive lyrical tool though n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Obama (4.00 / 3)
His movement is about himself.

Lets all get along, unity, civility, end partisanship............... It is all about attitude.

Movements are about issues. They are not about attitudes.

Barry Goldwater was a movement candidate. He didn't care who he offended. He didn't care about unity or partisanship. He had ideas and he fought for them.


Another thing (0.00 / 0)
Exocet,

Excellent analysis.

One other thing I noticed with Obama; he doesn't seem to have thought through his own policy positions. It is as if he paid someone to come up with policy papers.

It was the opposite with Clinton. When he talked about an issue as a candidate I had the feeling he had spent years thinking the issue through and formulated policies on his own. I get the same sense when Biden is talking. Same with Webb. You get the feeling the person has studied and debated the subject for years before reaching conclusions.


Maybe Obama been thinking too much about his election (0.00 / 0)
See http://www.washingto...

and not concentrating on the job he has


War Critics Question Obama's Fervor (0.00 / 0)
http://www.washingto...

"I'm not a military man," he told the Chicago Tribune. "I'm not running the war in Iraq."

In 2005 and 2006, Obama backed several bills that funded the Iraq war. In July 2006, when Democratic Sens. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and Russell Feingold (Wis.) pushed for a bill that would set a timetable to remove combat troops from Iraq by July 31, 2007, Obama, like Clinton, voted no.

Six months later, as his campaign got underway, Obama laid out a precise timetable for completing the withdrawal of combat troops. His aides say he took that position as he became more concerned with the situation in Iraq, particularly when the president proposed an increase in troops. Feingold said in June of his party's field of candidates: "Just about every one of them in the past mouthed that timelines are a bad idea -- all of that was just false, and now they are voting for them."

In November, Obama suggested that his position on Iraq was similar to Clinton's.

"It's not clear to me what differences we've had since I've been in the Senate," Obama told the New Yorker magazine. "I think what people might point to is our different assessments of the war in Iraq, although I'm always careful to say that I was not in the Senate, so perhaps the reason I thought it was such a bad idea was that I didn't have the benefit of U.S. intelligence. And, for those who did, it might have led to a different set of choices. . . . We were in different circumstances at that time: I was running for the U.S. Senate, she had to take a vote, and casting votes is always a difficult test."



[ Parent ]
And Obama Doesn't Want to Appear Weak (0.00 / 0)
Obama lacks the confidence to stand up to the military and political establishment and follow the will of the American people.  Obama is afraid of looking weak. 

This is where his lack of experience on national security matters undermines his bid for the Presidency.  Obama accepts the argument that a complete withdrawal of all American forces would be "irresponsible." 

The fundamental difference between Obama, Edwards and HRC verse Richardson on Iraq is that Richardson understands that by the U.S. remaining in Iraq, we unwittingly perpetuate the war.  Our troops have become the targets in a civil war.  The Iraqi government has become dependent on the U.S. for security the Iraqis should provide.  Richardson notes: "The Iraqis won't take the necessary steps toward political reconciliation until the U.S. makes it clear that it will leave the country for good." 


Edwards does not leave residual forces (0.00 / 0)
And Edwards made this point before Richardson.  Edwards position is NOT the same as Obama's or Clinton.

There is no military solution to the chaos in Iraq. Instead, the Iraqi people must solve the problem politically by taking responsibility for their country. By leaving Iraq, America will induce the Iraqi people, regional powers, and the entire international community to find the political solution that will end the sectarian violence and create a stable Iraq. We must show the Iraqis that we are serious about leaving by actually starting to leave, with an immediate withdrawal of 40,000-50,000 troops.


Join other progressives at EENRblog

[ Parent ]
I'm late (0.00 / 0)
to this discussion but this is a great piece.  I've said it before and I'll say it again - Obama is the George Bush of the Democratic party.  He's inspirational, he's passionate, appears as an idealist, connects with regular americans, people want to chill with him, women think he's cute, he's good for all time zones - but beyond that.... there is no organization or structure or action and that reflects poorly on him as a leader.

Obama For Obama (0.00 / 0)
Obama has always been about Obama.  Why is this suddenly such a surprise?

Obama Is Done | 85 comments
Donate to Open Left








Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.

As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search