CT-Sen: Lamont Would Win Rematch

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 13, 2007 at 13:45


In a great piece of work quite relevant to the post I made below, Dailykos has commissioned a poll in Connecticut showing the Ned Lamont would defeat Joe Lieberman is a rematch of the election were held this year. I guess voters do regret being suckered on Iraq, after after:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger
All 49 42 9
Dem 34 62 4
Rep 67 10 23
Ind 53 41 6

These numbers, including the partisan breakdowns, are extremely close to the final results in 2006 according to exit polls. This makes the next question in the poll so interesting:

If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger
All 40 48 10
Dem 25 72 3
Rep 69 7 24
Ind 38 49 9

All of the positive movement for Lamont comes from Democrats and Independents. Lieberman actually slightly improved his standing among Republicans.

This show, I think, the importance of having an honest and open debate about residual troops in Iraq before the next Democratic nominee is decided. Many Democrats and Independents who voted for Lieberman now regret that vote, almost certainly because they feel suckered on Iraq. While I oppose residual forces, I will have far less of a problem with a Democratic nominee who supports them as long as the people who voted for that candidate knew what they were supporting. I don't think that happened in Connecticut, as the media and most of the Democratic establishment never took Lieberman to task for his faux anti-war rhetoric in the general election. I don't want the same thing to happen nationwide in 2008. I want Democrats to know what their nominee will do in Iraq, or otherwise we could end up regretting out nomination down the road, ala many Democrats and Independents in Connecticut.
Chris Bowers :: CT-Sen: Lamont Would Win Rematch

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CT-Sen: Lamont Would Win Rematch | 2 comments
The problem, of course (0.00 / 0)
Is that you have to be suckered first before regretting having been suckered.  Voters by and large don't feel that they've been suckered by Hillary Clinton yet.  And it's hard to see how they will feel this without some sort of crystal ball.  You can fool some of the people some of the time and all that.

Insert shameless blog promotion here.
That won't happen... (4.00 / 1)
  ...unless Hillary's opponents begin to daily call her out on her triangulation and mealymouthedness on Iraq.

  It's not going to come from Obama. The more I observe Barack, the more I'm convinced that he's simply there to provide the illusion of a competitive primary. He hasn't been differentiating himself from Hillary. He hasn't done anything to alter his strategy as his early momentum has stalled, if not faded. My guess is that the Dem establishment (correctly) anticipated there would be significant anti-Hillary sentiment among the Dem primary-voter base, and recruited Obama so he would seem like a "safe" "alternative" for those lukewarm about Clinton. And Obama's campaign strategy bears that out -- it's been all about his own form of intra-Democratic triangulation. And he thereby splits the anti-Hillary vote.

  If the primary race were Hillary vs. Edwards, with Edwards getting Obama's level of media coverage, it would be much tighter. And that may yet happen -- if Obama supporters begin to break for Edwards when they realize that Barack isn't really trying to win it. That said, Edwards needs to draw a sharper contrast between himself and Hillary. He's been much better about that than Obama, but still not quite there, and of course he doesn't get Obama's free media. Maybe tonight's riposte to Bush might help significantly there...

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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CT-Sen: Lamont Would Win Rematch | 2 comments
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