| If Doug Schoen has data showing the American public prefers that Democrats work with Republicans even if it means not ending the war (which it does), he should show it to us.
Otherwise I'm going to be forced to conclude that he's lumping a bunch of unrelated findings together to arrive at the conclusion he himself prefers. Last week, Pew made the 'ambivalent' version of the argument that public opinion doesn't support ending the war. This week, Schoen makes the 'bipartisanship' version. It's a through-the-looking-glass inverse of Chris's amazing series of posts about the forthcoming Republican blurring strategy. Schoen apparently supports this strategy wholeheartedly.
Schoen uses some pieces of the ambivalent argument that Pew made. Such as here:
The electorate has had it with the war in Iraq -- close to two thirds want an orderly withdrawal of troops to begin immediately. That being said, the American people understand that to withdrawal completely and unilaterally without a clear strategy for pacifying the country is risky.
I've seen no evidence to suggest that those two findings are related in the way Schoen (or Pew) implies they are. It's at least equally plausible that Americans are telling pollsters that they recognize the risks of withdrawal, but still want to withdraw.
More unrelated findings from Schoen:
Polling from Penn Schoen & Berland shows a strong desire for the parties to work together to develop coherent, long term strategies to fight terrorism and protect American interests around the world.
Right now, Democrats clearly have the '08 advantage. The American people are fed up with George Bush and the Republicans. Democrats have opened up double-digit leads on party identification and the generic congressional vote.
But the Democratic Party is also vulnerable on Iraq, where the lead over the Republicans dropped 10 percent in August to a narrow four percent margin. Rather than harp on the withdrawal, the Democrats should continue to strike a bipartisan tone and refocus the debate to other international and domestic issues. This will help them carry the day in November 2008.
Again, the relationship between these findings is unclear. If the question Schoen refers to in the first paragraph quoted above was some variation of "would you prefer the parties to work together to accomplish America's goals, or would you prefer that they don't?" I'm sure a vast majority did say they preferred that the parties work together. Who would say no to that? But unless his polling question actually was a variation on "would you prefer that the Democrats give Bush another blank check for Iraq, or would you prefer that Democrats force Bush to end the war?" I'm not sure why the finding is relevant. Also, last week's ABC/Washington Post poll finds an 11 point gap in public trust on Iraq favoring Democrats. 42% of those surveyed say they trust Democrats to "do a better job handling Iraq" compared to 31% who trust Republicans. Almost 20% say they trust neither party - and that number has almost doubled in the last year. I couldn't find cross-tabs by party identification for that question, but I'd guess a fair fraction of those who trust neither party are the same disgruntled Democrats responsible for low Congressional approval ratings. Last, Iraq is the single most important issue for a plurality of the electorate. Ignoring the most important issue of our time to focus on other priorities is a recipe for electoral disaster. Why would anyone think that ducking debate on the issue that's most important to voters, especially when they agree with you, is a good idea? It baffles me.
Public opinion has turned decisively against the war. Vast majorities say they want to withdraw now or on a timeline that is almost indistinguishable logistically from now. Unless there is some indication that Republicans are willing to work to actually end the war, rather than work to keep it going while pretending to end it, there is no basis for bipartisanship. Those Democrats who want to end the war will have to do so without Republican support. This is an issue where Democrats can succeed by giving the public exactly what they want. It's not complicated.
Jane Hamsher at Firedoglake has more. |
