The Path to Victory on the Public Option

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:00


Currently, as the awesome Senate targeting chart showed yesterday, we are at 38 votes for the public option. (Huge hat-tip to HCAN and DFA on the chart). As such, we need at least 12 more to pass it thorough reconciliation.

That sounds like a daunting task, but a closer look at the Senate shows that it is definitely winnable. Here are the key targets, ranked in order of perceived likelihood for supporting a public option during reconciliation. Progressive Punch lifetime scores (in parenthesis) on crucial votes were used as the main, but not only, determining factor in these rankings:

The low handing fruit (7)
Al Franken, MN
Would Al Franken's first major act as a Senator be to oppose a public option, and take a right-wing position relative to the rest of the caucus on the most prominent issue of the day. Really? Really really? I'm certain we can win over Franken.

Amy Klobuchar, MN (82.30)
Klobuchar has the second highest progressive punch score of the remaining undecideds. She also signed the HCAN petition in support of a public option. Also, she hasn't really said much either way on the public option so far. I would be very surprised if we couldn't win her over.

Ron Wyden, OR (85.92)
As hubbird reported in the comments, Wyden probably is already in support of the public plan, but he is also interested in pushing his health care proposal hard. Wyden is also the most progressive of the undecided votes.

John Kerry, MA (79.67); Tim Johnson, SD (74.12); Mark Warner, VA (79.47); Herb Kohl, WI (79.19)
All four have not too terrible voting records, and also signed the HCAN pledge on a public option. We should be able to move them all.

***

Those seven would bring us to 45 Senate supporters of the public option, only five away from passage. A look at where we can get the remaining votes can be found in the extended entry. As you will see, this is a very winnable fight.

Chris Bowers :: The Path to Victory on the Public Option
The path to victory (7)
Mark Begich, AK (66.67); Jon Tester, MT (71.60)
These three don't vote particularly well (although Warner isn't too bad), but they have all received a lot of online support. As such, we should be in a good position to persuade them.

Mark Pryor, AR (69.59)
His statements on the public option are far more encouraging than Blanche Lincoln's. Also, he is not facing re-election until 2014. I think we can persuade him.

Diane Feinstein, CA (79.03)
Feinstein's voting record falls into the "not too shitty" category. However, she has cast doubt on health care reform in general, and said that the pressure she has felt from reformers as a result of such doubts doesn't move her "one whit." We should be able to win her over. Really, given that she is not as conservative as most other Senators in this category, we have to win her over. Feinstein is one of the two most important votes, along with Max Baucus.

Michael Bennet, CO (66.67)
Bennet is a big disappointment but, ala Specter, a primary challenger should do the trick on the public option.

Bill Nelson, FL (79.67)
Nelson is somewhere between Feinstein and the Johnson-Warner-Kohl-Kerry group. He doesn't vote too terribly. He hasn't signed the HCAN petition. In fact, he has been pretty quiet during this debate. Should be winnable, but hard to read.

Max Baucus, MT (64.35)
As chair of the finance committee, Max Baucus is the most important vote on this list. While he has said that he will fight for a public option, currently the bill in his committee does not have one. If, however, Baucus comes out in support of a public option, then it is virtually guaranteed that a public option will reach the floor of the Senate. At that point, the only thing separating a public option from becoming law will be the willingness of the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership to use reconciliation to pass it.

***

Win these seven votes, and the battle is won. There are also more difficult, fallback options:

The more difficult votes (9)
Evan Bayh, IN (74.06)
In addition to being the leader of the newly formed conservodems, Bayh actually voted against the budget that included the health care funding.

Robert Byrd, WV (74.65)
Not only is Byrd ill, but he didn't even want health care to go through reconciliation. Hard to imagine Byrd rising from his hospital bed to pass a public option through with 50 votes plus Biden.

Tom Carper, DE (70.17)
Carper is a conservodem lieutenant, and right now only appears to favors the trigger.

Kent Conrad, ND (75.21)
Conrad has become champion of the lame, ineffective "co-op" idea. He is also champion of the idea that a public option can't be passed through reconciliation. As such, he will be a very difficult, but also extremely important, vote to get. If Conrad sides with a public option, then the fight is all but won. Fortunately, Conrad has signaled that he is open to at least some aspects of the public option.

Mary Landrieu, LA (67.58)
Going a step further than Carper, Landrieu only appears to be considering a trigger. She did once sign a statement in favor of a public option, however.

Blanche Lincoln, AR (68.94)
I just don't trust Lincoln. At all. Given how frequently she has caved to conservative pressure, it is difficult to imagine her voting for a public option in reconciliation.

Ben Nelson, NE (43.58)
Second-worst voting Democrat, pockets lined with health insurance money, and, like Evan Bayh, voted against the budget. Further, at one time he was completely opposed to the public option. He actually votes against the progressive position more often than not on crucial votes.

Olympia Snowe, ME (27.16)
Right now, Snowe only appears to favor the trigger. Given that she seems to think that the problem with a public option is that is would offer lower cost health care insurance, I'm not optimistic.

Johnny Isakson, GA (1.56)
Isakson has surprisingly made some positive statements in favor of a public option. However, it is hard to believe, given that Isakson is the 4th most conservative Senator. Given that he is on the Senate HELP committee, we will find out soon, when the Kennedy bill with a public option is voted on in committee.

The Dregs (2)
Susan Collins, ME (24.20); Joe Lieberman, CT (68.44)
This space intentionally left blank on account of Lieberman.

***

That is the basic run of play as I see it. This really is winnable, especially if the Progressive Block forces the White House and the Democratic congressional leadership to start really twisting arms. Also, we are also going to need keep an eye on some of the more conservative and / or newly supportive Senators:

Key votes to hand onto (7)
Mark Udall, CO
Claire McCaskill, MO
Byron Dorgan, ND
Kay Hagan, NC
Arlen Specter, PA
Jim Webb, VA
Maria Cantwell, WA

Those seven will need as much pressure as anyone else.

So, let me know what you think. I want to really nail down the targeting plan over the holiday weekend.


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Senator Kohl on the public option (4.00 / 2)
A message from Senator Herb Kohl, one of the undecideds:

While our goal is to reduce the growing costs of health care, we're going to make sure that those who like their current health coverage can keep it.  Others who are in need of better coverage will have more choices.  Ideally, I think health reform should include some type of a public option.  After all, millions of seniors are happy with their government-sponsored Medicare coverage.  There are many proposals on the table, and I am confident that we will end up with one that won't undermine current health providers, will not rely on government subsidies, and will garner bipartisan support.  I believe we can reach consensus on this and all of the critical issues in health reform if we don't get caught up in ideological labels and work together for the good of the country.

What do people think--is this a yes to the public option, or a maybe?


Sounds like a public option supporter to me ... (0.00 / 0)
and OT ... but what happened to the QH comments?  Why were they disabled?

[ Parent ]
They weren't disabled (4.00 / 2)
They are broken. Working on it...

[ Parent ]
I think that's a maybe (4.00 / 1)
Ideally, he's for a public option. That sounds like weasel wording to me--I wouldn't count on him not to settle for a fake public option.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
There are a lot of qualifiers in this statement (4.00 / 1)
"Ideally," "I think", "some type of."  These sort of hedges are normal in everyday speech but on the issue that seems to be considered the most important of the day, they are unacceptable.  If he is a supporter, than he should say so.  If he won't say so, I have difficulty imagining a reason other than that he is not certain that he is a supporter.

The way I see it, vague commitments are useless - 'I will close GMTO' (but use alternatives to serve the same function', 'I oppose DADT' (but I won't lift a finger to secure legislation or stop its implementation despite full legal authority to do so.)

Who are the best keepers of the people's liberties? The people themselves. The sacred trust can be no where so safe as in the hands most interested in preserving it.
James Madison


[ Parent ]
Given Kohl's record, (0.00 / 0)
you should give that the most conservative reading possible.

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[ Parent ]
Kohl shows unenthusiastic, ambivalent support for the public option (0.00 / 0)
     If I am decoding the politician-speak correctly, Kohl does not want to be unpopular with Dem voters. His reading of the tea leaves says that most Dems favor the public option, so he wants to appear to favor it, too. However, if it fails to pass, or if it gets passed and then later becomes unpopular, he wants to be able to say later that he reluctantly went along with it.
    Does anyone here decode his words differently, or did I nail it?

1 Corinthians 13:1 (KJV) - "Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not charity, I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal."/ GOP = Greedy Old Privatizers or Greedy Old Privateers?

[ Parent ]
Path to Victory on Public Option (4.00 / 2)
I think that any path to victory that counts on Dianne Feinstein's vote will be a hard slog.  I take her at her word when she says liberal pressure doesn't move her one whit -- it hasn't before, why should it now, when it looks like she will not be running for any office again?  

Her talk on CNN... (0.00 / 0)
that started all this buzz was about not taking money out of the Medicaid (?) money for senior citizens in California to insure rural people in other parts of the country.  We're already screwed over enough as it is in California with the budget, why take even more money away at the expense of senior citizens here?

I think if we get another source of funding and don't touch the Medicaid money, she'll be on board with it.


[ Parent ]
Schumer to push against co-ops, trigger (4.00 / 4)
Schumer to push for public plan in Finance committee bill:

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a member of the key Senate Finance Committee and advocate for a government-run health insurance plan, said yesterday he would abandon all other possible compromises in favor of immediately creating a public plan that "would operate on 'a level playing field' with private insurers," CongressDaily reports. Other proposals have included a plan that would establish health insurance co-ops with government seed money or "trigger" the creation of a public plan only if private insurers fail to meet certain targets for containing costs and improving access.

Schumer's office said he was preparing an amendment to the Finance Committee's bill, which is expected as early as next week, suggesting that the bill will include one of the other alternatives designed to seek bipartisan compromise.

Good that Schumer is pushing for this, but negative that the Finance committee bill will have either co-ops or a trigger.


do we really have Hagan's vote? (0.00 / 0)
Or is she for a fake public option?

I wouldn't put Wyden in the low-hanging fruit category. He's been saying for months that Democrats should give up on the public option in order to get 70 votes for a health care reform bill (link). He'll only consider a public option if there is no chance for his own bill.

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She is voting for the HELP bill (4.00 / 2)
So, I gues the answer to your question is whether you consider the HELP bill a fake public option or not.

[ Parent ]
How much do we know about the HELP bill? (0.00 / 0)
Does it incorporate the Schumer compromise, i.e. public plan funded by premiums only?

For that matter, does the House bill's public option have that same caveat?  And are either bill's public plans allowed to actually bargain for lower rates?


[ Parent ]
I give us no chance for Baucus (4.00 / 1)
The only "public option" that might make it into his bill would be fake. His preference is a bill that would be worse than the status quo.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Is anyone going to challenge Bennet? (4.00 / 5)
In many ways he should be easier to beat in a primary than Specter or Gillibrand. Is anyone lining up a bid against him? If not, why not?

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

I wondered the same thing (0.00 / 0)
We need to get someone lined up against him, stat.  I really like Jared Polis but he might be too new to the scene to mount a credible primary challenge.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority." -William Jennings Bryan

[ Parent ]
I've been anxious to see someone primary Bennet from the left (0.00 / 0)
since he's probably the most vulnerable primary-able Senator aside from Arlen Specter.  Surprised no one's stepped up yet.

I've heard rumblings that Andrew Romanoff might run.  We would do well to get him nailed down on his position on the public option (as well as on other issues) before we commit to supporting him.


[ Parent ]
Hard to expect it... (0.00 / 0)
Most "serious" Dem politicians in Colorado are respectful of seniority and Party establishment, especially when you get to state-wide politics.

A flyer from left field would be swatted back pretty easily, so I'm not sure that would provide any pressure.


[ Parent ]
I'd like to recommend today's Daily Howler (4.00 / 4)
for its description of what we may be up against.
Also take a look at the past few days Howlers.

I've been impressed lately with Somerby's focus on this issue and his description about how ineffective some of our spokesmen have been.  Even Ed Schultz, who I love for his passion about this issue is often quite ineffective in arguing with the Republicans he brings on his show.

Why aren't we more often bringing up the simple numbers on aggregate health care spending against other countries whose health care is as good as or better than ours?

   Total health expenditures per capita, 2003

   United States $5711
   Australia $2886
   Austria $2958
   Belgium $3044
   Canada $2998
   Denmark $2743
   Finland $2104
   France $3048
   Germany $2983
   Ireland $2466
   Italy $2314
   Japan $2249
   Netherlands $2909
   Norway $3769
   Sweden $2745
   United Kingdom $2317

They almost make the case on their own.

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.


Need to mention Quality as well (4.00 / 2)
It's important to emphasize that NOT only are costs higher, but overall quality is lower. Many on the right will argue "yes, it costs more, but we have better quality health care here." That's not true. It needs to be debunked with the hard data. Only arguing the cost part misses a key element. This article has a fantastic chart about half way through that goes through spending and two important measures of overall health (not health care) quality in comparison to other developed countries:

1. Life Expectancy
2. Infant Mortality

The US not only spends more, but also has lower overall quality.  

Demockracy.com


[ Parent ]
you're right but (0.00 / 0)
even with people who refuse to believe that our Health Care isn't the best in the world, these numbers STILL allow you to make the point that you could pay MORE than the other countries, but less than we pay now and still "maintain our edge."

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.

[ Parent ]
What about kennedy? (0.00 / 0)
I think he is too sick to vote as well.  

That being said I think we will win the public option fight if one of these things happens

1: People in say Tester's district call him up and tell him that they are liberals who will only vote for a senator that votes for the public option.

2: Obama threatens to campaign against them in their next election.

The public option is too popular and this is a very public fight.  I wouldn't be surprised if it passes with 60+ votes after they get 51 votes for it.

http://transgendermom.blogspot....


I think Kennedy will make it (0.00 / 0)
There's no way he misses a vote for the cause of his life.  If there's any vote he'll make it for it's this one.

We definitely need public pressure to make the reluctant Senators vote for the public option.  Good luck getting Obama to threaten anyone though.


[ Parent ]
The only way Ted Kennedy will miss this vote (0.00 / 0)
is if he dies first.

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.

[ Parent ]
Al Franken will support the public option for sure (4.00 / 1)
I'm sure of this because he supports single-payer: http://www.alfranken.com/pages...

Franken opposing the public option would be like Joe Lieberman wanting to nuke Israel.  He'll vote for it.


sad story on dkos (0.00 / 0)
a very sad story on dkos-this is why we need real reforms
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Kerry (0.00 / 0)
I spoke to Kerry's office last week and they were adamant that he supports a public option. Does he need more pressure? I am really confused about this, as the blogs are saying one thing, but his office seems to be saying another.

Kerry supports a public option (0.00 / 0)
But floated the idea of a trigger if a straight-up public option couldn't get enough votes.

The chart listing Senators' positions on the public option put Kerry as a Maybe for this reason.  Personally I don't think that's totally fair.


[ Parent ]
What about 60 for cloture? Also, I live in California and have doubts about Feinstein! (0.00 / 0)
I agree that getting 50 votes for the bill is doable.  How about exploring what it will take to get 60 for cloture?  With Reid's weak leadership, it is not going to be easy.  IMO the only way we win on cloture is through arm-twisting by the Obama Administration.  And that is assuming that the bill in the Senate is something worth fighting for.

Also, I have lived in California for 11 years.  I have always had mixed feelings about Feinstein.  She is not bad on the envrionment, OK on women's issues, a solid vote to restrict assault weapons, and terrible on anything that restricts business.  She has waffled on EFCA and her statements about health care explicitly say that she does not care what we think.  

Given her age, 77, it could well be that she will not run again in 2012.  In which case, there is not much we can do if she decides not to listen to constituents.  When Arnold was pushing the special election initiatives in 2005, the California Nurses Association followed him and picketed him at every public event all over the country.  I think that sort of pressure would be necessary to get to her and, frankly, there are Senators that are more important on this fight so I do not see that happening to get to Feinstein.

Also Feinstein has won election in tough times, most especially in 1994.  That was a banner Republican year and Michael Huffington spent gazillions from his personal fortune to challenge her.  She had only been in office for two years and won by just 1.9%.  My guess is that she is highly confident that she will not be primaried from the left in 2012.  Elections in California are really expensive.  


What do we really know about Tester's opinion? (0.00 / 0)
As a farmer and small business owner he has certainly experienced the expense and difficulty of health insurance on a personal level. We're finding in Colorado that farmers and ranchers can be quite supportive if you describe the business proposition of health care reform, i.e. the savings and security it offers them for their family and employees.

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