The path to victory (7)
Mark Begich, AK (66.67); Jon Tester, MT (71.60)
These three don't vote particularly well (although Warner isn't too bad), but they have all received a lot of online support. As such, we should be in a good position to persuade them.
Mark Pryor, AR (69.59)
His statements on the public option are far more encouraging than Blanche Lincoln's. Also, he is not facing re-election until 2014. I think we can persuade him.
Diane Feinstein, CA (79.03)
Feinstein's voting record falls into the "not too shitty" category. However, she has cast doubt on health care reform in general, and said that the pressure she has felt from reformers as a result of such doubts doesn't move her "one whit." We should be able to win her over. Really, given that she is not as conservative as most other Senators in this category, we have to win her over. Feinstein is one of the two most important votes, along with Max Baucus.
Michael Bennet, CO (66.67)
Bennet is a big disappointment but, ala Specter, a primary challenger should do the trick on the public option.
Bill Nelson, FL (79.67)
Nelson is somewhere between Feinstein and the Johnson-Warner-Kohl-Kerry group. He doesn't vote too terribly. He hasn't signed the HCAN petition. In fact, he has been pretty quiet during this debate. Should be winnable, but hard to read.
Max Baucus, MT (64.35)
As chair of the finance committee, Max Baucus is the most important vote on this list. While he has said that he will fight for a public option, currently the bill in his committee does not have one. If, however, Baucus comes out in support of a public option, then it is virtually guaranteed that a public option will reach the floor of the Senate. At that point, the only thing separating a public option from becoming law will be the willingness of the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership to use reconciliation to pass it.
***
Win these seven votes, and the battle is won. There are also more difficult, fallback options:
The more difficult votes (9)
Evan Bayh, IN (74.06)
In addition to being the leader of the newly formed conservodems, Bayh actually voted against the budget that included the health care funding.
Robert Byrd, WV (74.65)
Not only is Byrd ill, but he didn't even want health care to go through reconciliation. Hard to imagine Byrd rising from his hospital bed to pass a public option through with 50 votes plus Biden.
Tom Carper, DE (70.17)
Carper is a conservodem lieutenant, and right now only appears to favors the trigger.
Kent Conrad, ND (75.21)
Conrad has become champion of the lame, ineffective "co-op" idea. He is also champion of the idea that a public option can't be passed through reconciliation. As such, he will be a very difficult, but also extremely important, vote to get. If Conrad sides with a public option, then the fight is all but won. Fortunately, Conrad has signaled that he is open to at least some aspects of the public option.
Mary Landrieu, LA (67.58)
Going a step further than Carper, Landrieu only appears to be considering a trigger. She did once sign a statement in favor of a public option, however.
Blanche Lincoln, AR (68.94)
I just don't trust Lincoln. At all. Given how frequently she has caved to conservative pressure, it is difficult to imagine her voting for a public option in reconciliation.
Ben Nelson, NE (43.58)
Second-worst voting Democrat, pockets lined with health insurance money, and, like Evan Bayh, voted against the budget. Further, at one time he was completely opposed to the public option. He actually votes against the progressive position more often than not on crucial votes.
Olympia Snowe, ME (27.16)
Right now, Snowe only appears to favor the trigger. Given that she seems to think that the problem with a public option is that is would offer lower cost health care insurance, I'm not optimistic.
Johnny Isakson, GA (1.56)
Isakson has surprisingly made some positive statements in favor of a public option. However, it is hard to believe, given that Isakson is the 4th most conservative Senator. Given that he is on the Senate HELP committee, we will find out soon, when the Kennedy bill with a public option is voted on in committee.
The Dregs (2)
Susan Collins, ME (24.20); Joe Lieberman, CT (68.44)
This space intentionally left blank on account of Lieberman.
***
That is the basic run of play as I see it. This really is winnable, especially if the Progressive Block forces the White House and the Democratic congressional leadership to start really twisting arms. Also, we are also going to need keep an eye on some of the more conservative and / or newly supportive Senators:
Key votes to hand onto (7)
Mark Udall, CO
Claire McCaskill, MO
Byron Dorgan, ND
Kay Hagan, NC
Arlen Specter, PA
Jim Webb, VA
Maria Cantwell, WA
Those seven will need as much pressure as anyone else.
So, let me know what you think. I want to really nail down the targeting plan over the holiday weekend. |