I just read this story in the Politico, 'Anti-Hillary Facebook site tops Obama', and it's really sad. It talks about how the group 'Million Strong for Barack' has been sagging in growth, while an anti-Clinton group is exploding in popularity.
The growth rate of One Million Strong for Barack on Facebook is only a trickle compared to that of its early days, despite national media attention and outreach efforts by its creators. Since the group started in February, its growth rate has leveled off "in the low single digits," Sifry said.
That figure doesn't fully reflect Obama's online support, however. His presidential campaign recently created its own social networking website, mybarackobama.com. The site has 80,000 registered users and more than 250,000 "participants," said campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki.
Pulling out of the public space so they could have control was just a symbol, like the Joe Andrews MySpace debacle, of a candidate that sought control. Obama had a movement, and killed it. And the numbers, 80,000 in the social network on Obama's site, aren't good. But beyond the numbers, for the progressive movement, here's the real cost.
As a recent graduate of the University of North Dakota, Farouk Olu Aregbe had enough time to create One Million Strong for Barack the same day that the Illinois senator formed his exploratory committee.
Aregbe thought he could mobilize young voters by creating a Facebook group, but after experiencing substantial growth initially, his group leveled off in the early spring.
Aregbe blames the summer for the loss of momentum. "Between May, June and July, we probably declined about a few thousand members," he said. Now that students are back in school, the pro-Obama group has experienced a kick-start in membership, although its current growth is "modest" compared to earlier accruals, Sifry said.
The summer break didn't slow down Stop Hillary Clinton, because of the "singularity of the group's message, said DeMaura, a recent graduate of American University in Washington who is executive director of the New Hampshire GOP.
I met Aregbe at the Personal Democracy Forum, and he was precisely the kind of person who would in 2004 have become an incredible leader in the Dean campaign. He's brilliant, and a natural organizer. I remember he didn't have business cards, so I gave him one of mine to write on and he made sure to write on the front and the back so I wouldn't give it away absent-mindedly to someone else. It just showed terrific instincts. There is no movement for him to lead anymore. The summer argument isn't real; Dean's summer tour in August was huge. And then there's this more significant problem.
The survey finds that Hillary is supported by 43%, compared to 20% for Obama, 12% for Edwards, and six percent for Richardson.
A CNN poll taken in the state in July found Hillary with only a nine-point lead. The 14-point jump in her lead is due to Hillary rising seven points and Obama dropping the same amount. What's more, perceptions of Hillary's "electability" have jumped significantly: 54% of respondents think she's the Dem most likely to win in November 2008, while only 37% thought that in July.
Were Obama or Edwards to lead on stopping the new FISA bill from passing, there might be some movement from them. Clinton's fear-based campaign is weak, and she's not creating a particularly strong coalition. The environment will probably swamp those dynamics, but she is vulnerable if Obama or Edwards were to bother taking advantage of it.
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