Residual Forces Become Front And Center At The Debate

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 00:11


Well, I certainly can't say it is being ignored anymore. Even Tim Russert is asking Democrats about residual forces now, in the first question of tonight's debate no less. And the answers are even worse than I feared:

The leading Democratic White House hopefuls conceded Wednesday night they cannot guarantee to pull all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by the end of the next presidential term in 2013.

"I think it's hard to project four years from now," said Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the opening moments of a campaign debate in the nation's first primary state.

"It is very difficult to know what we're going to be inheriting," added Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

"I cannot make that commitment," said former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Sensing an opening, Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson provided the assurances the others would not.

"I'll get the job done," said Dodd, while Richardson said he would make sure the troops were home by the end of his first year in office.

2013? 2013?! This is so utterly disappointing.  Clinton, Edwards and Obama all can't pledge to pull even all combat troops out of Iraq after four year in office? And yet Edwards still attacked Clinton over this:

With the Democratic left-wing demanding a hasty U.S. timetable out of Iraq, Edwards criticized the New York senator for not ruling out that U.S. troops might engage in some combat missions in Iraq if she were to win the 2008 election.

"To me that's a continuation of the war," Edwards said. "Combat missions mean that the war is continuing. I believe the war needs to be brought to an end."

Edwards' broadside put Clinton on the defensive at a time when she is enjoying a comfortable lead in opinion polls and trying to appear above the fray. But there was no sign that the debate would prompt a major shake-up in the Democratic field.

I am glad that Edwards made this attack, but if he can't commit to having American troops out in 2013, then the final quoted sentence actually makes sense. This is passing up on a major point of differentiation. Edwards is showing potential here, but not being able to promise to have all troops out by the end of his first term severely undermines his position. Very, very disappointing. I honestly don't understand it.

It is a broadly held position in the blogosphere that the Democratic Congress is not doing enough to try and end the war in Iraq. However, after tonight's debate, I wonder if the blogopsphere needs to look in the mirror. If the top three candidates in the blogosphere, who currently receiving a combined 71% in the Dailykos straw poll, not to mention receiving by far the most online buzz, small donors, and volunteers too, all just said on national television that they can't promise to bring all American troops out of Iraq over five years from now, then what exactly are we doing to end the war by supporting those three candidates in the Democratic primary? Seriously. How can we complain about others not doing enough to end the war, when the majority of our community is openly offering support to candidates who just said they won't end the war? There are other candidates who just said will end the war--basically, every other candidate Biden and one of the top three. Maybe we should support one of them, or at least not take any sides in the primary at all, before we talk about the failure of others to end the war.

Chris Bowers :: Residual Forces Become Front And Center At The Debate

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why (0.00 / 0)
do you demand such an absolutist position on this? What makes residual absolutism intelligent policy, let alone necessary? What exactly happened to nuance? It's as if you think every Democratic frontrunner is missing something incredibly obvious in the electorate, because they're in blind thrall to "Beltway elites" and "the military industrial complex." Are those lobbies with lots of power and money? Definitely. Do they control the entire world? No.

Iraq is a complicated fucking mess. There is no simplistic answer for it. If you want to grope at a candidate who offers a simplistic answer you can go ahead, but you are going to be thrown overboard the day after the primary.

Why is leaving Kurdistan, a very pro US client with a very functional economy and democracy, a good idea? Why the hell should we put 10,000 troops in Kuwait instead of 10,000 in Kurdistan?

I guess I'm just repeating myself. Richardson/CAP's plan is ridiculous both on its own merits (I love the "eastern Turkey" copout) and on credibility grounds.

And plunking 2 divisions in Afghanistan, which will 1) do absolutely nothing, and 2) be a huge pain in the ass to supply while they do nothing?

And what the hell does it mean to save Darfur if we just clear out of Kurdistan and kid ourselves about "diplomacy"?

I am really interested in what you envision as "the" alternative Democratic foreign policy, if you want to basically loose Kurdistan into the wild. Because it's utterly contradictory to every principle of rational self interest, international honor/credibility, humanitarianism, human rights and secular democracy.


Kurdistan (4.00 / 1)
You seem to only be upset about Kursistan. Is Kurdistan under some sort of threat of invasion by the Sunni triangle? Right now, I'm pretty sure that it is the best off area of Iraq, and I don't think the heavily battered other parts of the country can really do much too it.

I mean, who would we be loosing Kurdistan to, exactly? What threat is it currently facing that we are protecting it from? That isn't clear to me in any way, shape or form.

[ Parent ]
Turkey, Shia Iraq, Iran (0.00 / 0)
Turkey hates Kurdistan, because autonomous Kurdish separatists have used it as a staging point for terrorist attacks in Turkey. SE Turkey is overwhelmingly Kurdish (about 25% of Turkey = Kurds). The Turkish army is massive, and they came within a hair trigger of invading Kurdistan over the summer (news outlets actually reported briefly that Turkey had officially invaded).

Turkish Kurds see Kurdistan as the beginning of a much bigger, regional Kurdish-centric secular democratic state encompassing chunks of Turkey and Iran. Iran has about 16 million Kurds too. The vast majority of Kurds do not live in Kurdistan, they are under foreign overlordship.

Shiites in Iraq are 60% of the country and as soon as they get their act together, presumably under Iranian leadership, they will begin flexing their muscles against Kurdistan, including by cooperating with the Turks to squeeze it out.

The "Sunni triangle" is simply not an issue anymore, that has dropped off the radar. Right now many Iraqi Sunnis, at the leadership level if not the popular level, support the American presence for purely self interested reasons. The Americans have also completely switched sides, and have basically armed all the Baathists still alive for use as leveraged against Iranian-backed Iraqi Shias.

But the Sunnis aren't in any position to help the US outside of Sunni provinces. Kurdistan is pretty much wholly dependent on US patronage, even with its own considerable military forces.


[ Parent ]
It's a mess (0.00 / 0)
Kurd-Arab relations still aren't great in the Kirkuk area. There's less trouble, as both groups are predominantly Sunni in that area, but there is still tension.

I'm a little more sanguine about Turkey, although I agree that the US has to make clear that an invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan is not going to be allowed. Erdogan has been making noises suggesting he doesn't favour doing such a thing, but how much of that is posturing against the military after it threatened to launch a coup is unclear.

I'd also argue that the two divisions to Afghanistan could definitely come in useful - whilst the situation there is never going to be ideal due to our use of the Northern Alliance as proxies, there's still a lot more we could do there if we only had more men on the ground.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
i'm not only upset about Kurdistan (0.00 / 0)
but that's a pretty clear place to draw the line. It just doesn't seem justifiable under *any* school of foreign policy, short of unconditional isolationism, to throw Kurdistan overboard.

There are other issues too, which also must be addressed. But the Kurdistan argument is the strongest one against the "zero residual forces" argument, by far.


[ Parent ]
As I said yesterday (4.00 / 1)
and was quoted by the National Journal's Blogometer today,

Don't be fooled by the kabuki dance or rhetorical gymnastics of the other candidates. Residual troops equals stay the course, and that's simply unacceptable.

John Edwards tries to muddy the waters by saying he'll get combat troops out of Iraq, but he doesn't say what he'll do with all of the non-combat support troops in Iraq. And we all know that Clinton and Obama will leave residual troops.

So of the top four candidates, only Bill Richardson will get all of the troops out of Iraq, and given the debate tonight, it's clear that the others won't commit to getting all American troops out of Iraq before 2013.

I repeat, residual troops equals stay the course and that's simply unacceptable.


[ Parent ]
See (0.00 / 0)
I repeat, residual troops equals stay the course and that's simply unacceptable.

That might make a good talking point on television but it isn't true. We'll SEE what stay the course looks like if a Republican gets elected- stay the course means 100,000 troops in Iraq until the military finally falls apart. 3000-5000, 20,000, 30,000 even 40,000 in residual forces is not the same as 100,000 troops. Its not even close to the same.

Now we should debate these plans (and I happen to support as few residual forces) but its a stretch to compare Clinton/Obama's plan to the Republican one.


[ Parent ]
Insanity... (4.00 / 1)
Anyone who thinks we will have a viable American military force in Iraq, outside of consular duty, in 2013, is insane.

Batshit insane.

We are already seeing major supply and transportation connections into and out of Baghdad being challenged.  The British forces are leaving in the south of the country.  The President has told his own forces in Iraq to come home victorious or dead.

We are on the verge of having a major chunk of our forces cut off and forced to try to kill their way out of such a noose.

That's today.

What do these nimrods that call themselves "Front Runners" think things are going to be like within Iraq within five years?

Leadership sometimes means making hard decisions.  A majority of the American public is begging for it from the Democratic Party's Presidential candidates, and from the Congress, regarding Iraq.

Wake up, folks - we are on borrowed time.


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