Third Quarter Fundraising Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:30


I don't like the way fundraising numbers are reported in campaigns. This is because I believe the key stats are actually the primary cash on hand figure for each campaign minus debts, (the money you have now) along with the number of donors for each campaign (the money you can raise in the future). Those more salient statistics are often lost in the strange rush to report how much overall money it took in the day after fundraising quarters close. But anyway, here is the information we have so far:
  • Obama raised between $19M-$20M for the primary, bringing his overall total for the primary to around $76.5M. He also broke Dean's record for campaign donors in a primary, although since a decent amount of that comes from people paying to get into campaign events, he is still well-off Dean's overall donation record. Clinton raised between $17M and $20M, according to the same TPM Election Central article linked above, putting her in a virtual tie with Obama. In terms of cash on hand, it looks like Obama will maintain a small edge. No word yet on how many donors Clinton has so far.

  • Edwards raised $7M, and currently has $12M cash on hand. Including the $10M the campaign is expected to receive in public funds, the unlimited spending that can be made on field, and that Edwards so far has only spent $23K on paid media in Iowa, and he is clearly financially well-posited for the primaries. In fact, the Edwards campaign is still ahead of where Dean was at this point in 2003, and will probably complete non-field fundraising before Iowa given that he has an impressive 150,000 donors. All of this makes me wonder even more why he decided to opt into public financing. Some may argue it was principle, while others argue it was a short-term decision to achieve monetary parity in the primary season. While at one time I leaned toward the latter, after seeing this strong total I now lean toward the former. With $12M cash on hand, he certainly didn't need to opt in to win Iowa and New Hampshire. Whatever it is, it hurts his otherwise strong case for electability. Also, the Edwards campaign will use opting in to public funds as part of its campaign messaging and attacks against other candidates.

  • Richardson raised a respectable $5.2M, and seems unlikely to opt into public financing. No word yet on other Democrats, or from most Republicans. One except is Fred Thompson, who only raised $8M, and McCain, who only raised $5M, but has $2M in debt.  His cash on hand figure is probably very low right now.

I'll update this thread as more numbers become available.

Chris Bowers :: Third Quarter Fundraising Thread

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Note. (4.00 / 1)
People who paid to get into speaking events, and people who buy campaign merchandise have to be listed as campaign donors by the FEC.  Thus are captured by the campaign for future campaigns.  This article says that only around 1% of the donors come from the events / merch... and that many of them contribute traditionally as well.  I know I did.

http://time-blog.com...


Still (4.00 / 1)
Obama has only 150,000 multiple donations, meaning that the overwhelming majority have just given once. They might be capturing those names, but they don't seem to be capturing them so that they give in other ways.

[ Parent ]
I am pretty sure... (0.00 / 0)
That 150,000 of 350,000 over all is a pretty healthy resolicitation number.  I think the general number is about 1/3 but I could be wrong.

[ Parent ]
How can you tell that the campaign is not (0.00 / 0)
"capturing them so that they give in other ways"

Someone who donates to the campaign once may very well be organizing, phone banking, canvassing, registering voters, etc.

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone


[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
but still think his movement is impressive, no matter how you slice it.

[ Parent ]
I think the key point here (0.00 / 0)
is that the major candidates have more than enough money to compete in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Given that the average swing to the winner of the New Hampshire primary is 33 points, I really question how important money will be in the nomination fight.

In fact, if you look at the races since 1976, there isn't any real evidence that money has been decisive:

'76 Carter - really only had $ for Iowa and New Hampshire initially. The schedule was much longer then, so he could raise money based on his wins in time for the bigger fights.  But I think it is fair to say money did not matter.

'80 Carter - both were well funded - money didn't matter to Kennedy and Carter.  You could argue it mattered to Brown, I suppose.

'84 Mondale - Mondale had a huge cash lead which he lost after losing New Hampshire.  Hart actually outspent Mondale the rest of the way - but it didn't matter

'88 Dukakis - I do not recall money being a major factor here, though the Simon people might argue he ran out of $ after New Hampshire.  I would argue his third place finish made him irrelevant.

'92 Clinton - This might be the one case where $ mattered.  Tsongas was ill prepared to capitalize on winning New Hampshire, and you might blame money for that, though I think it is a stretch.

'00 Gore - Bradley had $ to compete early.  He just lost.
'04 Kerry - didn't matter really at all.


All of this Edwards money talk .. (4.00 / 2)
is dusgusting me ... you ought to be asking yourself ... what exactly are Obama's and Clinton's donors expecting in return .. hell .. we already know that Murdoch has given to Hillary ... is that what you want?

well (4.00 / 1)
I've given some buxx to Obama and I fully expect an ambassadorship in return! You have a problem with that?

[ Parent ]
I want to be Undersecretary of Kwan (0.00 / 0)
I've given twice and still spent less than I did for take-out the other day. I expect to be named Ambassador of Lo-Mein at the take-out place.

John McCain

[ Parent ]
aren't the clinton numbers just spin?? (0.00 / 0)
as far as i can tell they haven't released their figures yet. why are you reporting them as fact? i realize that you give your source but it is still just clinton-spin.  sort of misleading don't you think?

Additional Edwards info found on daily kos (4.00 / 1)
Additional information for the information junkies . . . Third quarter fundraising figures from the John Edwards for President campaign include: - $7 million raised this quarter. - 70 percent of the contributions came from grassroots fundraising. - More than 150,000 contributors from across the country this year. - 93 percent of contributions were in amounts of $100 or less. - 97 percent of contributions were in amounts of $250 or less. - Less than 1 percent of contributions were in amounts of $1000 or more. - Almost half the donors this quarter were first time Edwards contributors. The last point is interesting to me. It suggests momentum even as others are predicting an untimely death.

I can hardly wait. (0.00 / 0)
I can hardly wait to find out which of these clones manages to buy the election.

any word on (4.00 / 1)
Chris Dodd's fundraising?

The reason Edwards did it (0.00 / 0)
is because Hillary's still pretending the differences between the two of them are minimal, and the media is still reporting it with a straight face.  He's got to drive the point home.  At least that's the conclusion I came to after hearing the numbers (I'd been hearing >$5mil predictions and thought he'd done it out of necessity).

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