Clinton's Crushing Lead

by: Matt Stoller

Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 09:39


Chris Cilizza picks apart the latest poll on Clinton from the Washington Post, which shows her with a 33 point lead over Obama (compared with a 14 point lead in early September).

Clinton is ahead among every age group (55+ voters is where she runs strongest with 60 percent support), in every region of the country (65 percent in the Northeast) and at every education level (high school or less 59 percent). White voters favor Clinton 52 percent to 17 for Obama and 16 percent for Edwards; black voters go for Clinton over Obama 51 percent to 38 percent.

Voters who say "strength and experience" is the more important factor in their vote -- not surprisingly -- go for Clinton with 62 percent while Edwards takes second with 14 percent and Obama places third with nine percent. But, even among those who say "new direction and new ideas" is more important to them, a group that, in theory, should be Obama's base, Clinton leads 45 percent to 31 percent.

Beyond the crosstabs in the Democratic primary matchup, things still look very good for Clinton. She holds commanding leads when Democratic voters are asked who in the field is the "strongest leader" (61 percent for Clinton, 20 percent for Obama, 13 percent for Edwards) or who has the best chance of winning the White House next November (57 Clinton, 20 Edwards, 16 Obama).

But, even in other attribute areas that should be far tougher for Clinton, she also holds an edge. Which candidate is best able to reduce partisanship in Washington? Clinton takes 42 percent to 24 percent for Edwards and 20 percent for Obama. The candidate who best reflects the "core values" of the party? Fifty percent for Clinton, 21 percent for Edwards, 18 percent for Obama. How about the "most inspiriing" candidate? Clinton leads Obama 41 percent to 37 percent while Edwards lags with 14 percent.

She also crushes Obama on being trusted on Iraq by 30 points.  And what did Frank Rich write with his story 'Is Hillary Clinton the New Old Al Gore?', and what was Mike Allen and John Harris of the Politico claiming last week?

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) last week flew into a sudden burst of media wind shear. After months of mostly rosy portrayals of her campaign's political skill, discipline and inevitability, the storyline shifted abruptly to evasive answers, shady connections and a laugh that sounded like it was programmed by computer....

But the intensity and sharp personal edge of much of the commentary was a reminder of a thread in American political culture reaching back to the early 1990s: the deep and mutual skepticism between the Clintons and the elite media.

Hillary Clinton, like her husband, can take solace in the fact she has survived and prospered amid peevish coverage from New York and Washington news organizations - stories that often echo the buzz in social circles in both cities.

This week's stories, however, all in various ways highlighted what her strategists and independent analysts have recognized as a genuine challenge for her in 2008: overcoming perceptions that she is a politician so infused with ambition and artifice that she can not connect with ordinary voters.

Iowa's a wild card, of course, but the argument that Clinton cannot connect with ordinary voters is just not true.  She's beating the other Democrats with every single demographic group on issues they should have clear leads. 

Expect lots of this to be trotted out throughout the fall, especially tics like the laugh and subtly sexist nods to her gender (or not subtle ones, like the cleavage piece).  There's more and more evidence that the horse race storylines or what anonymous 'strategists' think is just cocktail party chatter that is always wrong.

Matt Stoller :: Clinton's Crushing Lead

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I wouldn't be (4.00 / 2)
surprised at these numbers seeing has how so many people mistake superficial posturing for substance.

However, in Iowa, where the folks are getting a real upclose and personal - the race is still neck and neck with Obama in the lead in the most recent Newsweek poll.

Hillary delivers her speeches confidently but she says absolutely nothing of substance.  AFter the last debate there was an interesting phenomena.  At first, people thought Edwards had won, Hillary did OK and Obama flopped.  Then, a couple of days later, after Obama's 24,000 draw in NY and a deeply meaningful speech delivered in Chicago and aired on C-Span, Obama's message seemed to sink in. Yesterday, the blogosphere was sparked with positive Obama readings.


Stoller (4.00 / 1)
You might want to note that the poll is of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents.  Less than 1 in 10 people polled will be voting in the Dem primaries in a couple months, these issues are so important to them.

Your mistake is that you think everyone thinks and acts like you do.  They don't.  The vast majority of people in the country are ignoring this nonsense, or barely paying attention, and making there decisions based on "horserace" coverage.  The funny thing is while you're dismissing "horserace" coverage here, what you don't seem to be getting is that its that coverage that is driving Clinton's lead.

People who don't watch debates, don't read every political article in site, don't use the internet at all, or very rarely for news, get asked who they like from the Dem field.  They remember reading some article here or there about Clinton as the front-runner, or whatever, so they say her.  Then they get asked a bunch of other questions, and choose her for those also because, well, she's the nominee, right?

You've got everything ass backwards.  What a surprise.


hope your right but they drive too much (0.00 / 0)
they'll be used to drive fundraising, they will sway volunteers.  They can't be dismissed but for me, they do energize me to try and come up with new and innovative ways to help Edwards.

[ Parent ]
People in Iowa and NH (0.00 / 0)
DO watch the debates.  I have seen polling suggesting as many as half watch them.


[ Parent ]
Polling (0.00 / 0)
Care to share it?  I sincerely doubt that even half of actual likely caucus-goers watch the debates, let alone what passes for a likely caucus-goer in most polls.  I suppose they might just lie about watching too.

[ Parent ]
The number that most (0.00 / 0)
quickly comes to mind is the polling among South Carolina voters after the debate there in March.

I have seen similar numbers in New Hampshire among voters before the primary. 

I will try and find a specific link.


[ Parent ]
Hillary's triangulations twists the country in knots (0.00 / 0)
Bill's surpluses were not the end all be all.  It took less than a year to watch that blow up and IWR both occured during Democratic control of the Senate.  hmm how did Hillary vote?  She won't even answer a simple question like who do you prefer in the World Series, the cubs or the Yankees?  She has to equivocate the question to death.  We won't get Republican lite with Hillary Clinton, we'll get neo-conservativeliberal mish-mashed slop that pretends to be sound policy.  Bush, but maybe not as bloody.  I'm pissed that the big money($2300) donors went lopsided for Hillary.  Probably more to do with Bill and their mailing list than Hillary.  As progressives, we are being shut out even though we were essential in delivering the majority in November.  We've gotten bullshit FISA votes, kick the can Iraq policy and lip service when it comes to the future of American policy in the middle east.
My explanations for the above poll results would be alot of neutralization.  61% Strength and experience?  delayed votes, duped on IWR, but when she takes a hit she's right back at 'em.  Where Edwards fumbled was not the haircut but the fumbled response.  He's done much better but still too much, I don't know, southern gentiality. 
Obama is also doing alot better but I also sense some equivocation in his statements. 

Molly Ivins:"I'd like to make it clear to the people who run the Democratic Party that I will not support Hillary Clinton for president. Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges...

What kind of courage does it take, for mercy's sake? The majority of the American people (55 percent) think the war in Iraq is a mistake and that we should get out. The majority (65 percent) of the American people want single-payer health care and are willing to pay more taxes to get it. The majority (86 percent) of the American people favor raising the minimum wage. The majority of the American people (60 percent) favor repealing Bush's tax cuts, or at least those that go only to the rich. The majority (66 percent) wants to reduce the deficit not by cutting domestic spending, but by reducing Pentagon spending or raising taxes."


No way! (4.00 / 1)
As progressives, we are being shut out even though we were essential in delivering the majority in November.  We've gotten bullshit FISA votes, kick the can Iraq policy and lip service when it comes to the future of American policy in the middle east.

You mean the Democrats campaigned all progressive-like, but didn't do anything when they got into office? Wow, that is incredible. That has never happened before.


[ Parent ]
way... (0.00 / 0)
David Sirota is a good read today, it helped me get out of (today's) funk

[ Parent ]
A warning on taking national polls to seriously (0.00 / 0)
MONDALE LEAD OVER NEAREST RIVAL IN POLL SETS NONINCUMBENT RECORD"
NYT front page story, February 28th, 1984

"Hart leads Mondale 38-31"
CBS NYT Poll, March 5th - 8th 1984

The average national swing out of New Hampshire is 33 points.  Twice, in 84 and 2004, it was 48 points.

Of far greater significance than these National numbers is the increase in her support in New Hampshire.  She is up between 5 - 10 points in New Hampshire over the last 3 months, and her lead is big enough that she might be able to lose Iowa and still win NH (Iowa produces a 19 point swing in NH).



National Polls (0.00 / 0)
The Washington Post Poll like the Gallup poll is of all adults. So it is over blown.

George Bush had as big or bigger leads over his republican rivals in 2000 and raised far more money than Hillary or Obama.

Yet he lost the NH primary by 15 pts to McCain.

Obama's speech yesterday was on the front page of the Desmoines register today and Hillary's fund raising was buried inside the paper. Also David Yepsin gave a glowing review of Obama's speech in his column today.

Bottom line, I believe that if either Edwards or Obama win's Iowa(especially OBAMA) THE DYNAMIC'S OF THE RACE CHANGES. African American's will flock to Obama AND hILLARY'S NATIONAL LEAD WILL SHRINK TREMENDOUSLY.


[ Parent ]
Would someone PLEASE show me when the last time (0.00 / 0)
Hillary Clinton took questions from voters in either Iowa or NH?

In an open forum, free and open to the public just as pretty much every other candidate is doing in the grassroots, retail style of politics that normally characterizes the first caucus and first primary states?

So this line:

This week's stories, however, all in various ways highlighted what her strategists and independent analysts have recognized as a genuine challenge for her in 2008: overcoming perceptions that she is a politician so infused with ambition and artifice that she can not connect with ordinary voters.
should really read she is willfully and deliberately not connecting with ordinary voters because anything unscripted, unplanned for, anything that gives the appearance that this is not, in fact, a general election style campaign is threatening to her.

Why the other campaigns are not mentioning this is beyond me. They take questions from voters who show up at public events(rope lines don't count) and she doesn't.

What's up with that?


She took an unscripted question from me ... (0.00 / 0)
... at the Yearly Kos Convention, and failed miserably.  I don't think she was expecting to answer a question with "I don't know, ask Al Gore."

[ Parent ]
She took a question from you and a few others because (0.00 / 0)
she was shamed into it, considering she had "other plans" and had thought to send a surrogate until the ensuing outcry caused her plans to change.

You might be one of a literal handful of "average" Americans who have actually asked a question of HC without first having donated to her campaign and in a public forum.

In months.

Why this isn't a news story I don't understand.


[ Parent ]
Allowing for MoE, etc (0.00 / 0)
I find it interesting that Obama does so poorly on perception of who would reduce partisanship. Granted, this may have little to do with reality, but if his campaign's focus hasn't succeeded in convincing people of this, that would suggest that a change of tack would be appropriate - stop talking about bipartisanship.

That said, the fact that Edwards and Clinton, two of the more combative of the nominees, are in the lead on this issue suggests that most respondents aren't really paying close attention.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


Allowing for MoE, etc (0.00 / 0)
Again this poll is of all adults not registered or likely voter's.

Thus, the answers are for the most part of people supporting who they have heard of or know through the MSM.

mOST PEOPLE ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.

The most important polls are the IA caucus poll's which show a very competative race. These people are far more engaged than the rest of the country.


[ Parent ]
If that were the case... (0.00 / 0)
why does the WaPo article also note that "There is little difference between people who are tracking the campaign closely and those who are paying scant attention: Majorities in both groups said they would vote for Clinton if the election were held today"?

Furthermore, the poll also states that 61% of those who support her do so "strongly".

The significance of this poll, moreover, comes in that the previous ABC/WaPo poll - which used the exact same methodology - had Clinton at 41% support, and Obama at 20% support. That means that in the ensuing period, Clinton has gained 12%, Obama lost 7%, and Edwards' support has not changed significantly. Iowa is crucial, but increasing her lead nationally strengthens Clinton's hand and increases the chances that she can recover from a bad showing in Iowa.

I don't post here often, and I admit that I am pleased Clinton has managed to consolidate her support over the past few months. However, wouldn't it benefit a supporter of another candidate to appreciate the significance of the WaPo poll, and work against it accordingly, rather than declaim or discount its results?


[ Parent ]
Correction (0.00 / 0)
That would be Clinton at 41% support, and Obama at 27% support.

[ Parent ]
combativeness (0.00 / 0)
Or perhaps it suggests that most voters have a different theory of partisanship than you do. A combative candidate can often negotiate more effectively with the opposition because where they stand is clear.

[ Parent ]
way... (0.00 / 0)
David Sirota is a good read today, it helped me get out of (today's) funk

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