| Marc Ambinder:
Oh me of little faith. Ron Paul cannot be dismissed as a gadfly; the chance for him to outperform expectations rises exponentially with additional million dollars he raises. 5.08m is real money. There must be, within the Republican Party, a vein of anti-war libertarian sentiment. It is longer and deeper than many of us had suspected. The Paul movement is probably one part Buchanan bridage and one part fiscal hawk. It is clearly active in ways that most of us haven't adequately understood? Paul may be in a position to be a giant killer now. Imagine if he finishes second or third in New Hampshire ....
Ambinder is right that Paul can't be dismissed as a gadfly. The reason, however, is because he isn't even a gadfly. Gadflies do things, challenge the status quo, and generally bother people. Ron Paul, by contrast, doesn't do all that much. Check out the total candidate events so far in the campaign:
- Romney: 400
- Richardson: 347
- Edwards: 344
- Obama: 331
- McCain: 316
- Clinton: 293
- Dodd: 225
- Huckabee: 214
- Giuliani: 201
- Brownback: 198
- Biden: 177
- Kucinich: 149
- Tancredo: 118
- Hunter: 90
- Ron Paul: 82
- Thompson: 50
- Gravel: 35
Yep-all of 82 campaign events, good enough for 15th place overall, just behind the powerhouse campaign Duncan Hunter. Although that looks to somewhat change now, heading into the 3rd quarter Ron Paul also ranked 9th among small donors, including trailing both Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo. At the absolute best this quarter, he will move into 6th. Even then, it won't be long before Fred Thompson passes him on the candidate event list, at which point only Mike Gravel will be making a less enthusiastic effort to run for President.
His campaign supporters are good at sending irritating, brain-dead emails, however, as Pollster.com has shown. I have even received emails from Ron Paul supporters urging me to support him because, while I may not agree with him on everything, he does oppose the war, or something. Because I guess there is a real shortage of Democrats who say they oppose the war, I guess.
Movements do things besides send irritating emails, and Ron Paul isn't going anyway if he continues to barely campaign. It actually kind of disappointing that he is phoning the campaign in, because I bet with a real effort he could achieve somewhere between 6-7% in the early states considering how persuasive his platform his and how many people share his ideals of not funding Katrina reconstruction, abolishing Social Security, legalizing drugs, ending government spending on health care, and ending reproductive freedom in the name of "civil liberties." I'm sure I can think of someone I know who shares this vision, but I'll have spend some time scouring my brain.
Ron Paul isn't a Gadfly, since Gadflies do things. I don't know what Ron Paul is doing, but running for President does not appear to be among his recent activities. I wish he would do something to seriously try and whip up Republican anti-war sentiment, but he isn't really even trying that hard to do that. |