The most difficult potential votes remaining are the following thirteen:
John Barrow (GA-12)
Chris Carney (PA-10)
Travis Childers (MS-01)
Jerry Costello (IL-12)
Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Lincoln Davis (TN-04)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)
Jim Matheson (UT-02)
Solomon Ortiz (TX-27)
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Harry Teague (NM-02)
Unless it can scrounge up votes form the "hard no's" and "lean no's," the leadership will need the support of seven of these thirteen to pass the bill. It isn't going to be easy:
A very conservative group. The mean Progressive Punch score for these members on crucial votes in 2009-2010 is only 38.1%, and the median is only 34.3%. Only three of these thirteen had scores over 40%, and only two had scores over 50%. No one had a score over 60%.
These thirteen members vote more like Republicans than like Democrats.
It's a good thing that Stupak amendment can't be changed in reconciliation. Given the Representatives who are still on the fence, it is pretty easy to see the House leadership just cutting a deal on Stupak to pass the bill.
New to Congress 8 of the 13 were first elected in 2004 or later. Two were first elected in 2004 (Barrow and Cuellar). Three were first elected in 2006 (Carney, Ellsworth, Space). Three were first elected in 2008 (Childers, Kirkpatrick and Teague).
While that doesn't seem like money very well spent by the DCCC, it should also be a strong point of leverage. Any groups who helped them get elected can really put the hammer down this time.
Majority voted for the health reform bill in November. 8 of the 13 voted for the health reform bill back in November. Only Barrow, Childers, Davis, Matheson and Teague did not.
This is a pretty right-wing group, but securing a majority of them it possible. The key is probably for groups that supported them in 2008, including the White House, to throw the hammer down and make this vote a pre-condition for support in 2010. They vote more like Republicans than like Democrats, but only have the benefit of being in Congress due to support from Democratic and progressive groups.