2008: New Hampshire Poll and Early Cash On Hand Reports

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Jul 15, 2007 at 14:23


Research 2000 has conducted a new poll in New Hampshire. It their first poll since December, and their first poll overall that has results without Gore. I cannot find full details on the poll yet, but here is info I gathered from a story on the poll and from polling aggregate websites:

(7-9/11, 400 LVs, MoE 5, without Gore)
Clinton: 33
Obama: 25
Edwards: 15
Richardson: 8
Dodd: 3
Biden: 2
Kucinich: 2
Gravel: 1
Unsure: 12

According to the New Hampshire scenario projection tables, these numbers immediately pre-Iowa would make things very, very interesting. As with before, according to these numbers, Obama is in position to win the granite state if he takes Iowa and Clinton finishes third or lower (in that scenario, Obama is almost certainly the nominee).  However, also according to these numbers, New Hampshire would to too close to call if Edwards won Iowa and Clinton finished third or lower, if Obama finished second to anyone except Clinton, or if Clinton finished second to Obama (that is the dream group of scenarios for the political junkie).  Otherwise, these numbers show Clinton would be positioned to win New Hampshire (and thus, almost certainly the nomination).

(Same specs, with Gore, December trendlines in parenthesis)
Clinton: 27 (22)
Obama: 23 (21)
Gore: 14 (10)
Edwards: 10 (16)
Richardson: 7 (2)
Dodd: 3 (--)
Biden: 2 (2)
Kucinich: 2 (4)
Gravel: 1 (--)
Unsure: 10 (8)


(Note: post updated to reflect accurate numbers.) Gore's support comes almost entirely from Clinton and Edwards. On the Republican side, the numbers were as follows:

(7-9/11, 400 LVs, MoE 5, December numbers in parenthesis)
Romney: 27 (10)
Giuliani: 20 (26)
McCain: 18 (25)
F. Thompson: 11 (--)
Other / Unsure: 17

Romney is cruising in the early states. After tying Giulinai in the latest Republican insiders support poll this week, he probably is the very slight Republican frontrunner right now, though Giuliani and Thompson are not far behind. Very hard to say how this will all shake out.

FEC cash on hand numbers are starting to trickle in now, too. At least Richardson ($7.1M), Kucinich ($221K), Romney ($12.1M) and Giulinai ($18.3M) have already filed. No exact word yet on how much of that cash is available for the primaries. Expect a big update to the Nomination at a Glance tables, either later today or tomorrow morning. Today is a great day for political junkies!

Update: Some more numbers from the Republican side: Huckabee comes in with $437,000 cash, Tommy Thompson has $112,000, and Ron Paul has a surprising $2.4M.
Chris Bowers :: 2008: New Hampshire Poll and Early Cash On Hand Reports

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2008: New Hampshire Poll and Early Cash On Hand Reports | 7 comments
Poll Info ... (0.00 / 0)
Ohio (4.00 / 1)
Chris have you seen that Ohio may move up their primary to January 29, the same day as Florida and South Carolina.

It seems that everyone has gotten onto this idea that because of the front loading of the schedule, New Hampshire takes on superhuman importance for determining who has the lead heading into super-duper Tuesday on Feb 5th. Yet, this year is going to be unique in not only having the Jan 19 Nevada Caucuses, but also a growing group of states on January 29th. 

Iowa still matters (because it goes first), but I think that New Hampshire no longer has the same meaning it did in previous elections.  I think that the Nevada caucuses are going to be very important in shaping the narrative in 2008. 

They are going to be the first state that's not lilly white to vote, and if I understand right, there are going to be 10 at large precincts, allowing Strip workers to vote. 

Notably, the party will hold eight to 10 at-large precinct meetings for as many as 4,000 shift workers on the Strip who otherwise could not take off time from work to participate in the caucus. Those meetings, which underscore the importance of Culinary Union members in the Democratic caucus effort, could take place in hotel ballrooms, officials said.

Only 9,000 people voted in the 2004 caucuses.  Whoever has the endorsement of the Culinary Workers is going to have inside access to the union community action programs to work the vote of more than 60,000 members.  If even a quarter of them show up, and there's not a parallel rise in the overal turnout, they determine who wins the caucuses. 

If Edwards wins Iowa, and secures Nevada with the support of the Culinary Workers, what does that mean for New Hampshire?

Even more so, is a New Hampshire loss fatal for any candidate if they can pull a victory out of Florida, South Carolina, or Ohio?

And to be straightforward, if reporters have a choice between a media narrative that involves freezing their asses of in Manchester, NH, or marginalizing New Hampshire and spending the latter half of January and the start of Febuary in places that are warm and beautiful, which do you think they prefer?

Calendar still shaking out (0.00 / 0)
Clearly, the shape of the calendar is still to be determined. Once it is in place, we will be able to better forecast election scenarios.

And early move by Ohio could open the floodgates. Imagine having Ohio and Florida on January 29th. That is a mini-Super Tuesday unto itself!

[ Parent ]
I think it's only a matter of time before (0.00 / 0)
someone jumps ahead of New Hampshire. My guess is Florida.

And if that provokes a stampede, can the DNC act quick enough to make clear that they will decertify delegates selected, or will there be so many delegates involved that it looks undemocratic?

Will Dean stand hard and decertify delegates if it comes to that?

[ Parent ]
National Primary (0.00 / 0)
This leapfrogging is insane.  I think Dean better strike a deal right now for a National Primary Day the next election or else he's not going to be able to hold this together.  A fight over certification of delegates in Denver will be a hell of a way to start the general election.
[ Parent ]
You think that this is insane. (0.00 / 0)
I'll do you one better.

If Dean is forced to decertify elected delegates from Florida, Ohio, and California (what they hey, let's make it fun), that changes the delegate allocation.

So those three states alone make 1/5th the elected delegates go poof.  And superdelegates go from under 20% of the total, to nearly a quarter.  Through in a few more states, and you have the potential for a contested convention, where superdelegates hold the key to victory.

[ Parent ]
NH moves up (0.00 / 0)
NH and IA will move up their primaries and Caucuses.

I predict IA will be Jan. 7th AND nh WILL BE jAN. 15TH.

2008: New Hampshire Poll and Early Cash On Hand Reports | 7 comments
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