Well, the MA-05 special election is finally taking place tomorrow. The most recent poll on the campaign in this D +10.7 district shows a fairly close result looming:
A couple of notes on this poll. First, IVR polls like Survey USA tend to capture more young votes than other survey methodologies, which would mean that this poll is inflating Ogonowski's numbers since he leads 2-1 among younger voters. However, this poll only projects 10% of the electorate under 35 years of age, which is either low or probably about right. So, it is possible that Ogonowski is closer than this. Second, there are basically no undecideds, but one can usually expect about half of voters who say they are going small third party to break with one of the two major parties. Normally, they would break for the "challenger" party, in this case Republicans, but with over 80% of current third-party supporters identifying as either moderate or liberal, and with Tsongas leading both categories, those voters do not seem fruitful ground for Ogonowski. Add it all up, and my best guess is Tsongas by six. That would make this campaign close, but not quite, the equivalent of Paul Hackett's 3% loss in the Republican +13 OH-02 back in 2005.
Now, let me ask what on earth is happening with younger voters in this district? No matter the small sample size, a 54-27 advantage for Ogonowski among voters under 35 is eye-popping. Let me venture a guess that a Democratic candidate over 60 years old, who appears to have won the nomination because her late husband was a Senator who ran a presidential campaign to the right of Bill Clinton, in an environment where Democrats in Congress are unpopular among their base, isn't exactly the best candidate to appeal to younger voters. In fact, it should be clear by now that Niki Tsongas wasn't a very good candidate to appeal to pretty much any voters. She almost blew a 25 point lead in the primary despite a million dollar fundraising advantage and, yeah, she is only in this position because of her late husband. The whole thing reeks of an ineffective, local Democratic machine that operates based on loyalty rather than merit or ideas, and which hasn't been tested by any serious opposition in a long time. For example, when we targeted the former member of Congress in this district in the Use It Or Lose It campaign last year, the four million dollar cash on hand Marty Meehan, a local editorial board called the campaign a "a nasty shakedown by rotten political scoundrels." This seems to be a very insular environment that is producing some mediocre candidates.
Throughout the country, most of the Democratic Party is run by ossifying, New Deal era local machines of this sort. It is reflected in Washington, D.C., where the party is actually run somewhat like a local machine (seniority, dues, loyalty, insularity, etc). The struggles that Tsongas is facing in what should be a very, very easy election is just one example of the ineffectiveness of these machines as electoral vehicles. Republicans are collapsing nationwide, and it would appear that only the ineffectiveness of the Democrats can save them right now.
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