| The short answer is not necessarily, but I sure wouldn't bet against her there, either.
I'll start out doing what I and a thousand other writers constantly writing about the Iowa caucuses constantly do: reminding you once again of the incredible trickiness of polling in a caucus situation. Caucuses are interactive events, where the abilities of the precinct captains, the social dynamics in the room on caucus night, the second place choices of caucus attendees, and the vagaries of delegate counts all have big impacts on the actual results. So always, always, always take caucus poll results with a huge grain of salt. In a normal poll, the margin of error is 3-4 points. In a caucus poll, you should triple that.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the front-runners have been closely bunched for many months now, and remain that way. Modest trendlines for a couple of weeks this early out have to be weighed in with a 9-month trend showing consistent tightness between the numbers of the top three. I would be a little surprised, given that 9-month pattern, if the trend line doesn't settle back down again soon into more of that 3-way tie dynamic.
Having said that, I am getting the sense that, as close as this race continues to be, Hillary's Iowa campaign has turned a corner to some extent. As I've written about before, the Iowa campaign is firing on all cylinders. Her field operations are being executed very well. The Vilsacks, who are highly regarded in the state, are working their asses off for her. People are finding her more likable personally than they expected they would.
Most importantly in terms of her gaining in the polls, she is starting to solidify an advantage with older women, which has been the campaign's most highly targeted demographic group from the beginning. Historically, women have been over 60% of caucusgoers, and over-50-year-olds have also been over 60% of caucusgoers, so obviously older women are a huge percentage of caucus attendees. And for a woman candidate, the older half of the baby boomer women, the ones who lived through the dawning of the women's movement in the 1960s and 170s, and can remember when abortion was still illegal, the appeal of a woman candidate is very big. Hillary has targeted that cohort from the beginning, and I think it is paying off.
I think the Iowa race is a long way from being over, and I don't think Hillary is pulling away to any significant degree. But she has established herself as the candidate with an edge right now, a smaller and more changeable advantage in Iowa than nationwide to be sure, but still with the lead.
The other dynamic to watch if Hillary keeps the lead for awhile to come is the danger to Edwards. While Iowa caucusgoers make up their own minds, they do watch polls and trends, and they know that Edwards has to win Iowa to have a chance at the nomination. If he is perceived to be slipping in Iowa, he may start sliding dangerously, maybe even finishing out of the top three and opening the door for one of the second-tier candidates.
Keep watching, more fun to come… |
