| For reasons I have written about on OpenLeft.com in the past, I don't have the strong anti-Clinton feelings that many people in the OpenLeft.com community have. In fact, in many ways, I like her, so I wasn't waiting around for the ideal anti-Hillary candidate to emerge like some folks were. I think she is both a better person and candidate than some of my fellow OpenLefties feel. But even so, I was intrigued by the potential of a Barack Obama campaign when the possibility surfaced late last year. Like everyone else I know, I was blown away by his 2004 convention speech, and was delighted by his charisma. I had gotten to know him a little bit on a personal level, and was impressed by his intelligence and insight. Being the Midwesterner through and through that I am, I also liked a lot of the old, sensible Midwestern staffers he had surrounded himself with.
The other thing that really heightened my interest was that as the campaign started to gear up, all the staffers I knew were talking about how this was going to be a really different campaign, that they had a unique kind of candidate and were going to run a truly innovative campaign, and that conventional wisdom on issues and strategies were going to be thrown out the window. The idea of such a campaign run by an African-American son of an immigrant, someone with the kind of compelling vision of American progressivism shown in his 2004 speech, had me really fascinated.
I got to thinking about all this anticipation, and the campaign we've seen since, after reading Matt Stoller's post here on Friday about all the disappointment and cynicism in the blogger community about Obama right now.
It is by no means time yet to do an Obama post-mortem, as he is still very well positioned to win Iowa, has a remarkable field operation there and in NH, and has the money and internet donor base to sustain a campaign through February 5th, no matter what happens in the early states. There is still plenty of time to change the dynamics of this campaign. But there also isn't any doubt he is having problems: he has slipped in the polls nationally, he has slipped in Iowa, and he has slipped in NH. The bloggers Matt cited aren't the only ones wondering what is going on with the campaign.
The great mystery of the Obama campaign so far is when they have such a unique and compelling candidate with such a fresh voice, why are they running such a conventional wisdom campaign? From their issue positions to their debate strategy to their day to day tactical positioning, they have run a campaign that keeps neatly within the lines of the campaign lane they've picked out to drive in. Every time he does a policy speech it fits within the outlines of Democracy policy establishment conventional wisdom. Every ad they do feels just like all of the usual political ads you see on TV. The strangest thing to me is that the kind of campaign they are running feels exactly like the others I've seen before. It's the politics that is broken, upper middle income-oriented, tired of partisan bickering campaign that Gary Hart, Bruce Babbitt, Paul Tsongas and Bill Bradley all chose to run. The weird thing is, none of those guys won the primary, let alone the general election. I guess maybe the veterans of past campaigns felt like with a charismatic guy to wage that kind of campaign, it would finally win. But right now, it feels like it's headed into the same ditch as all those other campaigns did.
I remain mystified as to why Obama has not followed his own rhetoric and run a truly different kind of campaign, one that has an innovative approach to the big issues, one that embraced bold goals and ideas for how to solve the messes Bush has left behind for the next President. (If I'm missing something in terms of boldness and innovation on either policy or political strategy, let me know, Obama fans.) Maybe if he started to do that, his campaign would suddenly get interesting and start to catch fire again.
Like I said, there's still plenty of time, and he is without questions within striking distance in Iowa. But I'm still waiting, and I think a lot of other folks are as well, for the creativity, courage, boldness, and different kind of campaign that I was expecting when this race began. If he starts to finally show that, he might yet be our nominee. If he keeps doing the same old, same old, you have to bet on Hillary. |