Time for Obama to Make a Move

by: Mike Lux

Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 15:44


If Barack Obama is going to be elected President in 2008, now is the time for him to make his move. Coming off of Hillary's stumble in the last debate and- more importantly- the post-debate spin wars, Obama by all accounts (I didn't make it out for the event) was the winner in the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Dinner sweepstakes. From everything I've heard, his organization made a great impression on Dinner goers, and Obama gave the best speech of the night. His central message that he represents and can deliver real change, which is a strong message in this anti-establishment moment.

Coming at a time of relative weakness by Hillary, and with a strong J-J performance, Obama is now well-positioned to make a major move forward and take the lead in Iowa. If he does that over the next couple of weeks, he might gain real momentum, as all the anti-Hillary folks who have been split between a lot of different candidates might start gravitating in his direction. If he grabs the lead, a lot of people who have been disappointed by his somewhat listless campaign in recent months might be re-interested and re-energized. (How he might react as a frontrunner, and how the Clinton team battles back will make for a very interesting post, because the Clintons are at their best when their backs are against the wall. But I'll wait and see whether it happens before going there.)

Here's the other side of the coin, though: if this potential goes unrealized over the next couple of weeks, and the campaign continues its drift, Obama's probably dead. Folks in Iowa sense the moment of possibility, but if nothing happens to turn it into real movement, they will be left disappointed again, and Obama's moment will have passed. And right now, there's no time left to regain the moment. If Hillary's campaign is able to hold him off right now, I'm guessing it will be down to her and Edwards for first place in Iowa.

Mike Lux :: Time for Obama to Make a Move

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Time for Obama to Make a Move | 40 comments
Obama Makes Move in Iowa (4.00 / 4)
should have been your headline.  He has had a terrific couple of weeks.  He won the night at the JJ dinner. He impressed all with his speech and his ground organization. Yepsen writes a glowing report. He survives MTP. The press is being very nice to him. The NH polls are tightening. Trippi lets it be known that Edwards is pursuing an Anybody But Clinton (ABC) strategy. And Hillary is imploding--planting questions, letting Bill continue (even today) to push the poor-me story line, inventing new and improved slogans about heat(?), etc. And to top it all off, the press is desperate for a race--a david and goliath storyline to sell media. For the moment they are perched to pounce on any mis-step.

You have been here before.  You know what will happen next. It will probably get ugly. They will each take a dive at some point. (maybe as soon as the debate on Thursday) And we won't know who is the victor until the night of Jan. 3.

But Obama has already made his move.  He the winner in Iowa for the moment. But in the end the MSM will not strike the fatal blow against a machine like the Clinton's. That's what Hillary has going for her and that is what Obama will have to overcome. Because the media will return to Clinton's camp before this is over. Mark my words.

MSM and Clintons (4.00 / 2)
You make a good case that many things have gone well for Obama in recent days, but I still haven't seen any tangible evidence, polling or otherwise, that all of this is helping him actually gain ground. It may well, in fact I'd be surprised if it didn't at least in the short term. But I just haven't seen it yet.
In terms of your broader about the MSM, I would argue that they actually hate the Clintons far worse than they do Obama- they have beaten the living crap out of both Clintons for 15 years for every conceivable reason, deserved and (more often) undeserved. 
[ Parent ]
but Mike, you have to admit that this year (4.00 / 1)
the MSM has been much better to Hillary than to Edwards. Ambinder himself admitted that journalists seized on the haircut story in April to "bury" Edwards.

We've been treated to lots of favorable hype about Obama, and lots of favorable "strong woman running perfect campaign" coverage of Clinton.

I agree with you that during the 1990s the beltway media were ridiculous toward the Clintons.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 2)
re the treatment of Edwards- they really hate populists.
[ Parent ]
quite frankly (0.00 / 0)
I am counting on the fact that they hate the Clintons. But as you said it will be up to Obama to keep hitting them out of the park or else....
[ Parent ]
The only candidates moving (0.00 / 0)
are Obama and Edwards.  They both have good points to make.

One makes their moves aggressively.  The other, more Presidentially.  Can you guess one is which?  Good luck as you seem to be having perception problems up to now.

Curious. (0.00 / 0)
As to the perception problems you claim for me. Don't mind being broadsided, just like to know what I'm being broadsided for.
[ Parent ]
Your perception problems (4.00 / 2)
are that you don't see Obama as the second coming.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!
[ Parent ]
If Only this were so. (0.00 / 0)
But unfortunately, it is too late.

After all, Obama is done. You hadn't heard?

http://openleft.com/...

Wasn't the first time (4.00 / 1)
that my frind Mr. Stoller and I had been in disagreement.
[ Parent ]
"My friend Mr. Stoller" (0.00 / 0)
Heh.  You really are an insider!  The only people I've ever heard talk like that are Senators and Representatives.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.
[ Parent ]
Well....yeah.... (0.00 / 0)
Senator 'Waffle' has been 'done' for some time here in the vicious jungle of the blogosphere due to his unfortunate tendency to sound and act like Joey the Liarman, but....

The great mass of low-info, not meant as a pejorative, voters are just now catching up to his 'policy' stances.....

They're wide.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

[ Parent ]
Make the move. (4.00 / 2)
The impressive JJ night didn't come accidentally.  It was planned well in advance and finally people are beginning to realize that far from drifting, the campaign has been doing the groundwork necessary to mobilize vague support into definitive action.

But even accepting your premise that now is the time, the headquarters are in fact making their move with today's email of a weekend fundraising drive which will enable them to actually cancel a fundraising event and spend that time in Iowa.  It's both a brilliant fundraising ploy and exactly the seizing upon the moment move that you are talking about. 

Field for Obama has always been good, (4.00 / 1)
at least in IA where I have been following things most closely. And their money operations have always purred like a kitten. But message and strategy wise, I think they have been adrift for a while- otherwise why the steadily dropping national and NH polls, and why have they have been stagnant in terms of IA numbers for so long?
I noticed that campaign email as well, and I think you are right that it is a very good move.
[ Parent ]
Ground gain. (4.00 / 3)
You ask for evidence of ground gain but are you using anything besides polling which may be quite flawed?  What impressed me about this weekend was the display of organizational muscle.  The Obama crowd was not just large and vocal, it was organized by precincts with precinct captains.  There were representatives from all 99 counties.  There were people from other states who came in to add their efforts into making this quite a show.  And now the headquarters are using that night to kickstart other states.  California is sending people to Nevada this weekend to help organize, phone-bank, and canvass local neighborhoods around Vegas and Reno. 

If the message has appeared stagnant I think it may have to do with the fact that the single most important message he needs to deliver is that he may actually be able to win.  I think there is a lot of soft support out there for other candidates based on the fear/cynicism/impression that Obama's either too young or too Black or too whatever to actually pull it off.  This is not something you can talk your way out of or even advertise around.  It takes a show-me moment and Iowa is becoming that stage.  Apparently the campaign has been spending their time addressing their central vulnerability instead of wasting their time around the edges. 

[ Parent ]
how many people over 50? (0.00 / 0)
Obama's biggest problem in Iowa (from my perspective) is the same as it ever was: many precincts have very few caucus-goers under age 50.

Has he improved his numbers enough among older voters to win Iowa? I am not sure. In my precinct of empty nesters, Edwards and Clinton do much better with the older crowd. The Obama supporters I've identified tend to be younger.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
The Jan. 3rd date. (0.00 / 0)
How will this new date affect those demographics?  When you've got something like 20,000 potential voters in Ames on caucus night I can see how the youth vote might get depleted in most precincts, but with most of them being home and I would assume spread throughout the State, I think that could change things dramatically.  Can the kids caucus in their parents home precinct or do they need to go back to their school precinct?
[ Parent ]
Caucus where the register (0.00 / 0)
Students can caucus wherever they are registered.  Most of the time they caucus at their schools because that is where they are on caucus night.  The Obama campaign has started to encourage its supporters to re-register for wherever they will be on caucus night.  This can actually be a boon in some counties where they would otherwise be at risk of not being viable.

I presume that the current plan is to get out of state students to remain registered near campus and to return to school earlier.  Also, don't forget that you have to be 18 in time for the general election to be allowed to caucus in the primary.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama

[ Parent ]
Thanks. (0.00 / 0)
The CW has been the date will hurt Obama but I think it could prove to be just the opposite.
[ Parent ]
the date could cut many different ways (0.00 / 0)
I expect Edwards to get more delegates in Johnson (U of Iowa) and Story (IA State) counties than he would have if the students had been in school on caucus night.

It will be interesting to see how many college kids show up at my precinct caucus instead of where they study. My neighborhood is mostly empty nesters.

On the other hand, maybe Hillary will benefit most, if lots of men stay home to watch football.

I would be much happier with starting the process in late January or February.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Over 50? (0.00 / 0)
Obviously, I don't know all the people in America over 50 who will vote for him, but I'm over 50 and about HALF of my over 50 friends will be voting for him and the other half is divided into about 2/3s for Edwards and 1/3 between Clinton and the rest.
[ Parent ]
Ground game. (4.00 / 1)
I have thought for a long time, and have written multiple times about it here, that the Obama ground operation is very impressive.
I don't agree with you re their message. Unfortunately, I think their message has been too geard to elites and not enough to real voters.
[ Parent ]
I don't think this is right (4.00 / 3)
" this potential goes unrealized over the next couple of weeks, and the campaign continues its drift, Obama's probably dead. Folks in Iowa sense the moment of possibility, but if nothing happens to turn it into real movement, they will be left disappointed again, and Obama's moment will have passed."

I have spent a great deal of time looking at polling history.  I see no evidence that a challenger really takes the lead in a state more than two weeks out.  In fact, most of the evidence shows that more than half of caucus goers make their decision until the last 10 days.

Based on the polling history I have read - and I can post it if people are interested - challengers don't make their move in Iowa until the last 10 days. 

Of course, the NH race is COMPLETELY remade by the results in Iowa, as I showed in my dairy this summer.

New Hampshire (0.00 / 0)
Of course, the NH race is COMPLETELY remade by the results in Iowa, as I showed in my dairy this summer.

::snark::
but I thought New Hampshire took their presidential candidate vetting *very seriously*!
::/snark::

John McCain <3 lobbyists

[ Parent ]
NH vetting (0.00 / 0)
Only for the Republicans where it has been huge.  They saved reagan in 1980, saved Bush I in 1988, saved Dole in 1996 and they were right when they threw out W in 2000 only that time it did not take.

The one Democrat saved by NH was Michael Dukakis in 1988 after a third place showing in Iowa.

[ Parent ]
undecideds will move in December (4.00 / 2)
and not before. I continue to talk to many caucus-goers (people who caucused in 2004 and are certain to again) who are still giving two or more candidates their serious consideration.

These people started making up their minds about four weeks out last time, and I expect the same this year. Afer Thanksgiving, they will really tune in and start doing the research they need to make up their minds.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Talked the Dem County Chair (4.00 / 1)
of the county in NH that contains Concord over the weekend.

He finds a LOT of undecided voters in his calling.

Bottom line: he thinks NH is pretty wide open. 
And will be heavily influenced by Iowa. 

[ Parent ]
which is why (0.00 / 0)
you don't want to peak too soon....right?
[ Parent ]
Right (0.00 / 0)
I think the Obama people might be a little ahead of themselves right now.

The race in Iowa, and in NH I would argue, is wide open and will be decided late.

[ Parent ]
Critical campaign moments. (4.00 / 1)
I agree that a lot of folks will decide and move late, but I think campaigns have critical moments in terms of how voters see them, and I think Obama is at such a moment between now and the time people zone out on politics for a few days for Thanksgiving. If he shows no movement in the polls in this period, after all the good buzz about him coming out of JJ, and all the negatives about Hillary coming out of the debate, I think a lot of people will write him off.
[ Parent ]
The Storyline (4.00 / 1)
The previous campaign storyline -- Hillary is inevitable, Hillary will never make a mistake, Hillary's Campaign Staff are infallible super competient super humans -- was crazy.  The expectations for Sen. Clinton were way off in the wild blue yonder somewhere over the cloudline.  When will frontrunners learn not to raise thier own expectations too darn high?

I agree with Mike's analysis that Obama & his campaign needs to extend the moment to make it matter.  Obviously, if Obama has a major misstep now it could doom his hopes.  Hillary is still the frontrunner.  Obama's campaign has plodded aimlessly at times. There really isn't time for another cycle of drift for Obama.  Time, and lack thereof, always favors the frontrunner.

I disagree, however, that Edwards will necessarily be the beneficiary if Obama sputters. I think it is a two person race already unless a political earthquake hits.  With each passing day as Hillary fails to close the sale Obama seems a little more compelling & plausible.  I can think of lots of campaigns that came down to a two-person race but I can't think of many Democratic primary campaigns that had room for three candidates once the voters really started to focus on the choice.  The winnowing process is cruel, and it has begun.

no, not a two-person race (4.00 / 1)
Not even a three-person race in Iowa. A lot of people are still considering several candidates, including second-tier candidates. Remember that Edwards was still in single digits in Iowa in November 2003.

Many undecided Iowans will land somewhere other than with Hillary or Obama.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
On the ground (4.00 / 1)
Desmoinesdem is on the ground every day in Iowa so I gotta defer to your judgement.  I'm inside the beltway, but have been knocking on doors a few weekends in New Hampshire and will be up there next weekend.  From what I've seen firsthand with New Hampshire Dems & indies it is a two person race between Clinton & Obama but, yes, of course, that would change overnight with an Edwards win or very strong second in Iowa.  As for the rest of the field, I still think its over and that they are running for other reasons than a real chance to win.
[ Parent ]
its a two person race for sure (0.00 / 0)
but one thing that desmoinesdem keeps saying, that obama needs to hear, is that the old folks are sticking with hillary--for now at least.

i have to agree with her on that. I am almost 50 (my husband is 56) and I know lots of older liberal boomers including my parents who are almost 70. All these folks continue to defend hillary and stick by her no matter what she does--I got an email today that says she's down not out. These folks like the idea of a woman and they have always liked bill and they deeply believe in the old time dem party. They don't blame Iraq on Hillary or for that matter on the dems. Bush is the enemy. I think that is the difference--they don't see anything wrong with our side--the GOP is the bogey man that needs to be defeated. And Hillary deserves that chance to stick it to them.

Howard, I sure hope Obama can come up with a way to reach these folks and change their minds. Because they show up at caucuses and at polls and they vote.

[ Parent ]
just to clarify (0.00 / 0)
While Hillary has a lot of firm support among seniors, there are also plenty of older folks who don't like her. But they are going to Edwards, Biden or Richardson--generally not to Obama.

In my precinct (lots of empty nesters) I think Hillary and Edwards will each get at least two delegates, while Obama will be barely viable.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
in NH it may be a two-person race (0.00 / 0)
but Iowans are seriously considering all of the options.

I think that in December either Biden or Richardson will make a move--not enough to break into the top three, but enough to be viable in a lot of places and shake things up.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Iowa. (0.00 / 0)
I think it's more wide open there than it is in NH.
[ Parent ]
runoff (0.00 / 0)
I think that is probably because in Iowa they get the chance to change their vote if their candidate is not viable.  There are a lot of people who would support a third tier candidate if there was some sort of IRV or even better live ability to change their vote.  Thee is no risk in an Iowa caucus of your vote not mattering.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama
[ Parent ]
Set piece (0.00 / 0)
We already knew that Obama can deliver a heck of a set piece.  He did it three years ago at the Democratic convention.  The JJ dinner just showed what every body already knew.

The really strange thing about this campaign is that at least two of the Democratic contenders are great, in their own way, at set pieces but not so good "on the move."  That's Richardson, who has wonderful ads, an effective resume, and does well when given time, privacy, and room to maneuver.  Not exactly attributes of a Presidential campaign.  Obama has also floundered a bit outside of his set pieces.

The task of Hillary and Edwards is to keep those two off balance and on the move.  there is a reason they have underperformed in debate type formats and interview shows because these venues jump around all over the place and don't allow for set pieces.

For Hillary, the model is clear: it's William Tecumseh Sherman closing in on Atlanta against a very good general, Joe Johnston, who loved set pieces.  Sherman just kept moving, avoiding big battles for the most part, and flanking around any set defenses.  Well, that's what she's trying to do.  Avoid the big battle, the definite points about Iraq, and just keep moving around, moving around getting closer to the goal.

For Obama, the model is certainly not Johnston, more like Lee.  Avoid fixed lines but concentrate attacks on your opponent when (s)he's vulnerable, launching as much as you can and following up with confidence knowing that an opponent on the run is likely to give up (of course Grant "lost" several of those battles but kept on coming).

It may be the people I hang around with: middle aged, middle class.  But Hillary seems to have a lot of traction here.  Not all but many women like the idea of a woman President.  Obama just scores very negatively.  The worst impression was with an older Democrat.  Edwards (my choice) had a moment but failed to clinch the deal.  There seems to be a feeeling that he just hasn't made much of an impact.

Two things (4.00 / 1)
I think it was just last week Mike when you were saying that the pressure is all on Edwards-that he had to make his move soon or his support would start to drop.  Now you are saying that the pressure is on Obama and that if he doesnt start to make a move, he support will drop and it will be a Clinton-Edwards race.  I agree that the two positions arent absolutely irreconcilable, but there is some inconsistency.

The other thing I disagree with about this post, which also applies to the Edwards post last week, is that you make the spread between the top three candidates seem greater then what it is.  This is not like '88 where Gephart had to come back from the grave to win, or 2004 when both Kerry and Edwards had to make up a tremendous amount of ground to catch Dean and Gephart.  This year, the race is very tight.  Only a small "bump" is needed for either Edwards or Obama to pass Clinton, not a major move.  And that kind of "bump" could happen in the last 72 hours before the election.  In fact, polling shows that the race is currently so close, and the nature of the voting pool that will actually show up on January 3rd is so hard to predict, that either Obama or Edwards could actually be leading right now among people who will show up and vote.

Time for Obama to Make a Move | 40 comments
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