Who is choosing the nominee?

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 12:26


Joe Sudbay thinks Clinton isn't going to win, and the first national poll shows her in a dead heat with Obama.

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are essentially tied for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, the first time that the New York senator hasn't clearly led the field.

The Illinois senator bests Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president Al Gore.

Clinton bests Obama by a single point, 37%-36%, if it doesn't include Gore.

The situation in New Hampshire and Iowa is by all accounts fairly fluid.  Clinton is probably best positioned to withstand a loss in both states, but it seems to be dynamic.  Like Chris, I am very worried by the dominance of the celebrity bitchy conservative media in this race, from the Clinton tipping story to the post-debate coverage.  Put another way, the Kyl-Lieberman vote on Iran didn't hurt Clinton, though it should have sunk her (as should the residual forces argument).  A week of coverage of how Clinton is slipping, though, has had an effect.

Whether we like it or not, the media is choosing our nominee.

Update (Chris): I was busy writing an article for the last hour, but the poll listed above is from June first. You can tell by the multiple references to "the previous poll in mid-May" in the article, and because the numbers  in the poll are identical to a Gallup poll that was released in early June

UPDATE AGAIN (Matt):  Oh God.  Wrong day to stop sniffing glue and all that.

Matt Stoller :: Who is choosing the nominee?

Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
somebody (0.00 / 0)
needs to tell joe sudbay.

[ Parent ]
Polled last Friday - Sunday, (0.00 / 0)
according to the link, unless I'm missing something obvious.

[ Parent ]
This poll is old (0.00 / 0)
This poll is really old. I even remember when this came out. Someone needs to tell Joe to pay better attention. The article states that Republicans are about to engage in their "third televised debate". It's hosted by the New Hampshire Union Leader. Okay that debate happened in June as this article from Jun. 4 shows:

"Republicans will debate on the same stage Tuesday. Both debates are sponsored by CNN, the New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV and St. Anselm."


[ Parent ]
Is it possible that the (0.00 / 0)
'planted questions' questions are hurting Clinton? That seems to be the first big stumble of the campaign.

If it's true. I haven't looked into the allegations, myself. Seems pretty embarrassing, though, if they're not groundless, and pretty directly undercuts some of the Clinton 'smooth running machine of competence' narrative.


All I know is this... (0.00 / 0)
Thinking about the Dem nominee losing the race makes my stomach turn.

But all I know is this...

I will feel a lot less bitter and jaded if Obama gets the nomination and loses than if Clinton gets it and loses.

For all Obama's ups and downs, he's still got my endorsement and then following him, Dodd and Edwards.

I do not doubt Clinton's skills, I doubt her commitment to progressive values.

With Obama, I doubt his skills (or his campaign's skills) but for the most part I don't doubt his progressive values. Having looked at his voting, and read his speeches and books, I think he is all around a more genuine liberal than Clinton.

We won the Battle. Now the Real Fight for Change Begins. Join MoveOn.org and fight for progressive change.  


Oh, so NOW the media is choosing our candidate. (0.00 / 0)
Where were all the complaints about the media choosing our candidate when they were spitting out iteration after iteration of the "Clinton is inevitable meme," or the "Edwards is too populist" meme, or the "Obama has no experience" meme or the ridiculous stories about how Obama is a radical muslim and Edwards is (gasp!) wealthy. 

Sure the tip thing was absurd, but the refusal to answer straight forward questions on the drivers liscence issues (btw, I think they SHOULD get liscenses) and on social security, and this (these?) ridiculous planted questions are what she had coming.

"I am very worried by the dominance of the celebrity bitchy conservative media in this race"

Tim Russert:  definitely a blowhard, conventional wisdom insider. But bitchy Conservative media? Come on.



Poll data (0.00 / 0)
Despite faulty data, the media does seem to be turning on Hillary.  The picture shown of her is just awful.  When they turned on Nixon (finally) his pictures got terrible in a hurry. 

The poll cited was taken between June 1 and June 3.  The most recent USA Today (November 2-4) poll shows Hillary at 50%, Obama at 22%, and Edwards at 15%.  Obama is up 1% and Hillary down 1% from their previous poll.  The Iowa results are all that count at this point and they are inconclusive.  The results may depend on how attractive the Orange Bowl matchup the night of January 3 is to Iowans.  A drop in male voters and an increase in the proportion of females in the caucus could swing things.  What a system.  No candidate has won both Iowa and NH since the "modern" system took hold in 1976 without being nominated.  We are likely to have both nominees selected by January 8 at the latest.

Frankly, I don't see how Mitt Romney loses the Republican nomination.  The USA Today poll shows that around 40% of the public is uncertain or has no opinion on Mitt.  We need to get out there and define him, pronto.

I watched the Obama speech on the Des Moines Register site, all 20 minutes.  It was Ok but that is it.  Not anywhere near the hype.  The big news is that Obama finally took a few swipes at Republicans although Hillary was hit far more.  As I have said elsewhere, the acceptance speeches of Barry Goldwater and George McGovern were great speeches and they got two of the worst electoral thrashings in US history.  Ads count a lot more than speeches.


the media is choosing our nominee (0.00 / 0)
this is new information for you?

second update (0.00 / 0)
Your second update is really funny, gracious save.

I was wondering.... (0.00 / 0)
...why they included Gore in the polls.

I mean, please tell me they're not still doing that.


Define Mitt? (0.00 / 0)
We need to get out and define Mitt right away?  I hope Mitt gets the Repig nomination.  He'll get pasted in the general election.  He's weaker than Guiliani among independents, and he will lose a large share of the evangelical votes.  In short, Mitt would be the best choice of the frontrunners among the Repigs for us.

Donate to Open Left









QUICK HITS

Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.


blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search