Obama: Social Security versus Net Neutrality

by: Matt Stoller

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 00:36


This post is a bit insider-y, so I apologize for that and have put most of it on the flip.

UPDATE: It turns out Krugman hit Obama on the same point.

Matt Stoller :: Obama: Social Security versus Net Neutrality
There's a bit of understandable confusion about why I was so effusive towards Obama's policy on telecom, since I've been critical in the past of him as a candidate.  I actually called his campaign "a narcissistic festival of self-love" in a Max Blumenthal video, which might lend the praise, as well as the statement I'm leaning his way, an air of confusion.

I'm specifically responding to DLC progressive Ed Kilgore, who Josh Marshall has appointed to interpret The Left (update: This is unfair, Josh linked to Ed and did not endorse Ed's views), and who has taken what Chris and I have written recently as a sign of some sort of existential crisis among liberal bloggers, as well as an illustration of our essential vapidity.  Kilgore quotes Jonathan Singer's objection to Obama's use of the word 'crisis' to describe the financial condition of Social Security, and concludes:

There, in a nutshell, is the lingering concern a lot of folks on the Left have with Barack Obama: his policies are suitably progressive, but his framing of those policies, from his constant invocation of bipartisanship to his occasional violation of progressive taboos (e.g., lecturing teachers about their opposition to merit pay, and bloggers about their "incivility", and consorting with anti-gay gospel singers), makes them suspect he's really talking past them in order to appeal to the David Broders of the political world.

Perhaps Singer just thinks it's a framing problem, or perhaps he doesn't.  As the founder of the site ThereIsNoCrisis.com (whose domain I stupidly allowed to expire), I'll note that my problem, though perhaps not Singer's, has nothing to do with framing.  There just is no crisis.  Obama actually acknowledged this when he transitioned somewhat disjointedly under Singer's questioning to modify his statement about a crisis to instead say that Social Security has a 'long-term financing problem' instead of a crisis.  Kilgore may or may not understand the financing model of Social Security, and he may confuse my arguments with those of Jonathan Singer's, but it's pretty clear that Obama's implicit desire for a 1983 style bipartisan commission is simply a regressive move to raise payroll taxes and cut benefits.  That commission simply allowed a tax hike on the working class to pay for a tax cut for the wealthy, all in the name of dealing with the phony Social Security crisis.

The problem, of course, is that Clinton also believes that Social Security needs to be made more solvent, so there's not really a great contrast here.  The DC Villagers want to just do bad things to Social Security, and they gin up crisis and solvency lingo to justify it.  It's actually what they are very good at in general, ginning up crisis rhetoric to justify things they want to do anyway. 

On the second point, Kilgore uses our changes of opinion to illustrate some sort of overall crisis within the Left in general.

As we get closer to actual voting, the Left's "Obama Problem" is becoming acute. At one site alone, OpenLeft, and on one day, you have Matt Stoller citing the candidate's new package of technology proposals as the reason he's now leaning towards support for Obama, and Chris Bowers hoping against hope that Obama, despite himself, could marshal the creative class/minority working class coalition that Chris considers the future of progressive politics. Both these gents have strongly criticized and (in Chris' case) written off Obama in the very recent past, mainly for the heresies cited above.

I'm discussing this phenomenon mainly to crystallize the subtext of much of the netroots debate on Obama, Edwards, and the entire Democratic nominating contest. Does it really matter in terms of actual voters? You'd have to guess John Edwards thinks so, given his ever-more-faithful channeling of netroots-approved rhetoric these days. And to the extent that everyone agrees media coverage of the campaign does move votes, it's not so strange that New Media coverage would have an impact as well.

But votes will move media, too. If Edwards wins in Iowa, it will inevitably be viewed as an ideological as well as organizational triumph, and even if Obama survives to fight again, his support on the Left will rapidly dissipate. If Obama wins Iowa, and gets the desired one-on-one with HRC, the Left's Obama Problem may be resolved in the opposite direction, though the agony inflicted by Obama's "centrist" rhetorical tendencies could grow with the realization that the Left has nowhere else to go.

The weird thing about Kilgore's arguments, aside from his capitalization of the Left, are that they are so devoid of substance.  I wrote several posts on why the FCC is a really significant administrative body for the next President, and how Obama's proposals could be a transformative tools for movement organizing.  I have a fairly long record discussing net neutrality and telecom policy issues, as well as the entangled politics therein.  But this doesn't enter Kilgore's framework.  He can't understand how anyone could support, or more accurately lean, towards a candidate based on policy ideas alone.  In Kilgore's world, it has to be some sort of calculated strategic response to Obama's rise in the polls, just as we are susceptible to Edwards' populist pandering because we are the Left.  It can't be a pure response to ideas.  It just can't be.

The reality is that my opinion of Obama hasn't changed that much, except that I believe he has some great ideas about how to transform government and media.  My experience and knowledge base, as well as my sources in the telecom policy arena tell me that Obama's stuff is for real, and that Clinton's priorities are extremely problematic.  That's not small beer, and I wish Kilgore would actually address the substance of the differences between Clinton and Obama on these policy ideas.  Obama hasn't proved that he's going to do anything but put out a nice white paper with these; he certainly didn't talk about them tonight at the debate.  And his arguments about Social Security aren't wrong because they are framed incorrectly, they are simply wrong.

Kilgore poses interesting questions about whether the new systems of power and discourse on the internet impact votes.  I'm sure they do, though no one really knows how.  It's worth noting the impact of television or even labor endorsements is often impossible to measure, that politics is a lot of guesswork.  I think it is fairly clear though that Democratic Presidential candidates have kept their distance from these new internet-centered groups.  Just consider that the top three contenders condemned Moveon, including Edwards, who Kilgore seems to think consistently panders to the netroots or the Left or whatever group he makes it clear that he is certainly not a member of. 

With all major Presidential nominees refusing to ally or associate themselves with internet-based liberal politics, there's no way to know if any of us can have an impact on voters in the Presidential primary process.  I strongly doubt it, so my choice about who to vote for, and yes, that's all it really is, is based on substance.  His arguments about Social Security are stupid and wrongheaded, but I think those can be beaten back.  His arguments about an open internet are great, and my guess is that he'll move them forward and Clinton will do the opposite.

Anyway, please, Ed, next time, consider some substance when interpreting discussions on the 'Left'.


Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
income cap (0.00 / 0)
Hasn't he said he favors raising the income cap to keep Social Security solvent, but that he wouldn't take things like payroll taxes and age increases off the table?

How is his plan regressive (0.00 / 0)
I don't think that there is a "crisis" in Social Security but I don't know if it is solvent or not.  Like many Americans I want Social Security to be there, and want to know that my leaders are doing what they can to make sure it is.  Thinking ahead is a progressive value.

Obama has suggested taxing the entire income of every American, with the possibility of not creating something of a gap.  That would effect only the the 7% of income earners in this country, making the Social Security tax more progressive not less.

What am I missing here?

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama


[ Parent ]
Social Security solvency (4.00 / 1)
If in 2041 the United States has a good, healthy, self-sufficient economy with new sources of energy, ecological problems under control, and good relationships with the rest of the world than Social Security will be solvent.

If those things are not true then it would be better to spend our time rewatching "Mad Max" and "The Road Warrior" to pick up survival tips than arguing about a SS tax increase.

Social Security is a reflection of the health of the United States.  There is no way for the largest economy in the known universe to "save".  Particularly not when the current sport of kings is to take all Citizens' savings, skim 20% off the top, and send the rest to India and other low-cost areas of the world.

sPh


[ Parent ]
I agree with you (0.00 / 0)
I don't see any damage done but I do see more insurance for soc. security knowing that the future is unforeseeable.

[ Parent ]
A spot on post Matt. (4.00 / 1)
Really highlights what the American people are up against not just us folks on the 'Left', man that terminology died a long time ago, when the media absolutely refuses to address policy issues in any real way.

Of course there are good reasons for the corporatist media not to do so.

There is no doubt that more and more Americans are coming online to find what they cannot get from the likes of Kilgore: Rational discussion of the issues facing our nation and policy for dealing with same.

As for:

...next time, consider some substance when interpreting discussions on the 'Left'.

When pigs fly Matt...when they grow wings and fly.



Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


The Cap (4.00 / 4)
Matt -- how is it progressive that Bill Gates pays in the same amount each year to support Social Security as a school principal does? 

Howard Dean raised this issue of lifting the cap in the 2004 campaign and I thought it was a pretty sensible idea back then. 

Particularly if the cap is lifted but a floor is instituted so that no one pays FICA on the first $10,000 or so of their income.  That gives 94% of the country a tax cut.

Here's what Governor Dean said about it on Meet the Press in May 2005:

MR. RUSSERT:  When you say tweak, you'd be willing to consider raising the eligibility age, reduction in cost of living, means testing?

DR. DEAN:  Well, I don't think you...

MR. RUSSERT:  There's tough choices here.

DR. DEAN:  There are tough choices here, and when the president indicates that he's serious about making tough choices, we'd like to help make those tough choices.  There are also some other things that people have, including Democrats, have put forward that the president has rejected out of hand.  The president...

MR. RUSSERT:  Such as?

DR. DEAN:  Such as raising the cap.  Right now the Social Security tax is only on the first, I think, about $85,000 worth of wages.  I saw an economic analysis the other day that said if you remove that cap entirely that Social Security will be solvent.

Voter Genome Project


Political viability (0.00 / 0)
Isn't the crux of Krugman's attack on the SS "crisis" about keeping the program political viable, which would be undermined by getting rid of the cap?

[ Parent ]
*politically* not "political" (0.00 / 0)
Just to correct the mistake in my post.

[ Parent ]
No (4.00 / 2)
Krugman's point is that there is no crisis. There is no problem in the SS system that needs immediate, or even near term, attention. 

Saying that we have to get rid of the cap to save social security is false. Saying that social security is a pressing crisis is false.  And the way this business has been constructed, you can't talk about the payroll tax as a revenue source unless you also talk about SS, as is evident by the comment at the top of the thread.

A much better thing for Obama to have said, to stay inside the SS lockbox story, is that we've had 7 years of the Republicans taking money out of the lockbox to pay for upper income tax cuts, cronyism and loopholes. At this point in time, America should running a surplus, every year, with all current expenses, including disastrous occupations of countries that never threatened us, paid by income tax increases in the years those expenses are accrued.  You know, like when the Democrats were in control.

  Paying for this war by raiding Social Security is incredibly irresponsible. That's the trillion dollars Obama should be talking about.


[ Parent ]
Yes, this is a better (0.00 / 0)
explanation.

[ Parent ]
sorry about losing YK (0.00 / 0)
Saw your post yesterday. It's a real pity NN is not going to NOLA.

Did you see the NOLA panel in Chicago? It was amazing.


[ Parent ]
You miss Matt's point (0.00 / 0)
The 1983 commission was formed to "save social security." The idea was to accumulate funds while the baby boom pig went through the python, running surpluses during that period so that there would be funds available to pay the boomers without raising rates or cutting benefits.  There were other changes--retirement ages were raised, the cap was raised graduallly.

But, and your post makes this clear that you don't get this, that's not what happened. The funds didn't go to run a surplus to pay for social security payments in the future. The funds went, as Matt said in his post, to tax cuts for the upper brackets. And deficits were run.  So the increase in the cap that took more money from the first, now 97K of Gates' salary didn't go to SS. It was "borrowed" and used for general revenues.

Now I think it certainly would be good public policy to drop the cap now, and lengthen the period of time when payroll tax revenue exceed SS benefit payments--if you could keep that revenue stream really off-budget. Or if the fiction of separate budgets were dropped.  But you can't do either. The record is clear that they cannot concede everything is general revenue, even though they treat everything as general revenue.

So the only way to deal with this is when the time comes.  Krugman's point is that dealing with it when the time comes makes sense because we have many more serious problems--above all the huge differential between health care costs per capita in the US vs the rest of the OECD.  Note that this is not a "Medicare" problem. This is US health care system problem that will magnify as the population ages.

The other reason to wait to deal with it is because there is no way to project growth accurately enough to make a reform now. The last reform only led to a shift to a more regressive tax structure and a reduction in benefits. Why let them have another crack at it until it's really necessary? Who knows, by then the fearmongering may have run its course and we may be on a par with Canadian defense budget.


[ Parent ]
How can the United States save? (0.00 / 0)
> The idea was to accumulate funds while the baby
> boom pig went through the python, running surpluses
>  during that period so that there would be funds
>  available to pay the boomers without raising rates
>  or cutting benefits.

An individual can save for the future by deferring current consumption and directing it into investment vehicles, under the assumption that when the future arrives someone else will buy their investment vehicles and they will be able to consume the proceeds.  For the most part this has been a good assumption over the course of US history since 1600 - although it hasn't always been a good assumption in every time and place (Weimer Germany; circa 1900 Russian bonds). 

A small nation - say New Zealand or Chile - can save for the future by buying investment vehicles in a much larger nation that it believes will be able to redeem those investments when the future arrives.  Since about 1850 such investments have primarily flowed to the United States and to England; Germany, France, and Russia having been less successful places to invest long term.

So tell me please:  how exactly does the United States "save" for the future?

sPh


[ Parent ]
Correct in principle (4.00 / 1)
But in practice, it would have meant the US spent the period retiring debt, and then issued debt to avoid raising the payroll tax or cutting benefits, if the current revenue was insufficient to pay for SS benefits.

You'll recall there was a brief period of time where there was concern in the financial markets that there would be no way to price corp bonds without a market for 30 year federal instruments.

Now, of course, the US could run surpluses for a very long time without having to worry about what to do with the money.


[ Parent ]
Forgot my manners (0.00 / 0)
Nice to see you here, sPh.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the education, but I do know something about this (0.00 / 0)
I didn't miss Matt's point and I know that I oversimplified a bit in my explanation.  My point is that Matt is thinking about this in terms of the battle against Bush in 2005 and is missing Obama's point, which is at least in part about progressive taxation. 

I've been looking at this for a while and was one of the people who brought this up to Governor Dean in 2003 (not sure if I was the first but I did have a fairly long discussion with him about this).  I think it's crazy that as a 28 year old lawyer I was done paying FICA in the Spring when my wife's sister who is a teacher pays it throughout the year.  I appreciated the extra money, particularly when I was still paying off my loans, but I didn't need it as much as someone who makes 30k or 50k per year could use a tax break.

I know the argument that if you ask people who make more than 97k to pay for Social Security they'll take up arms against it and try to eliminate it, but I don't buy that.  I think enough people believe in Social Security that with a little bit of leadership we can fix this regressive tax so that most of the country gets a tax break and those of us fortunate to make more than the cap kick in to help it happen.

Voter Genome Project


[ Parent ]
Then stop talking about SS (4.00 / 1)
if you are talking about making the tax code more progressive, then make that argument on its merits. If you want to say you want to drop the cap to increase progressivity, then fine. But if you are going to say that, you also have to say "and decouple the payroll tax from SS [which is not easy, because benefits are tied to it], recognizing that SS is now, always has been and always will be paid out of current revenues."

But once you buy into Obama's trope of saving social security by dropping the cap then you are reintroducing the shuck that there is some social security problem. There isn't. And the last time we looked at that "problem" the result was a more regressive tax structure and lower social security benefits for retirees. 


[ Parent ]
Progressivity and payroll tax (0.00 / 0)
Ron the problem is that raising the cap only captures wage income, it gives returns on capital a pass. Since no one is suggesting extending FICA to all income all this does is slap a big tax on the associates at a typical large law firm while giving the partners a free ride. Is that really the way to go? (Maybe partnership shares are taxed as regular income, in any event the principle holds, controllers of capital pay nothing, workers pick up the bill)

If you want progressivity start taxing returns on capital at something a little closer to regular income, a rate of 15% is institutionalized theft.

Which brings up another point. Raising the cap simply begs for reformulation of compensation packages to make them look like returns on capital. You might as well label the legislation the "Tax Lawyer and Accountant Full Employment Act of 2009". The only people who would be stuck would be top administrators at public agencies and non-profits, i.e. the people more likely to be Democrats, while every private company manager would likely find himself in a stock option plan with a low strike price.

Steve Jobs has a salary of $1 a year. Think about that in context.


[ Parent ]
Progressivity (0.00 / 0)
I am thinking about how Democrats can reduce the tax burden for most of the people in the country and restore some progressivity to the tax structure.  Another thing that they really should have time to do is fix the taxation on carried interest by hedge funds.  If those who got this break just paid their fair share of income taxes, we could fully fund an expanded SCHIP program.  But I don't hear many Democrats talking about that issue other than Ed O'Reilly:




Voter Genome Project


[ Parent ]
CBO Director's testimony on hedge fund tax loophole (0.00 / 0)
I linked to this in my post above but realize it might not be too apparent, so here is a link to the testimony of the Director of the CBO on the hedge fund loophole. 

Voter Genome Project

[ Parent ]
Already a surplus (0.00 / 0)
Social Security taxes are already bringing in a surplus, then there's the Trust fund.  I'd support removing the cap in a revenue neutral way, ie lowering the rate at the same time.  The bonds for the trust fund should be paid for with progressive income taxes and capital gains taxes.

[ Parent ]
Why? (0.00 / 0)
At the political level the strength of Social Security is precisely because it is buffered from Capital. The wealthy pay nothing in after $97,500 and so end up with no more claim to control than anyone else. Funding Social Security out of income tax and capital gains simply transforms it from a worker funded insurance plan that benefits workers to a welfare plan open for cutting at any time.

Social Security doesn't need the money. SCHIPS does. Anyone who has actually familiarized themselves with the numbers understands that 'Crisis' in context still provides a better benefit in real terms in 2042 than retirees get today. I call it Rosser's Equation, 75% of 160% = 120%. Will benefits have to get cut in 2042? Probably not. Would that be a big tragedy? Given that they will still get a check 20% better than my mom gets today, not really.

You want to help the guy scheduled to retire in 2041? Fine. Give him health care coverage for his kids today. And maybe give their teachers a pay raise.

There is no crisis, there is a theoretical case that full scheduled benefits will not be payable sometime after mid-century, even though benefits in real terms would still be better than today. Of all our social needs this is exactly the least pressing.

Once again there is no policy need to transform Social Security from a funded insurance plan into welfare. And it is crappy politics besides.


[ Parent ]
I'm pissed you let that domain lapse n/t (0.00 / 0)


Wrong message (4.00 / 1)
First I suspect you could buy the domain back pretty cheap, the guy is using it to sell cheap jewelry. But more importantly while 'There is no crisis' was the important message in 2005 and you guys did some really heavy lifting on this, it is now time to move into the next phase.

Given trend growth Social Security is fully solvent for decades after 2041 and the numbers for the fully funded Low Cost alternative are well within reach. As this thread shows we need to get beyond the message 'The problem is small, distant and fixable' to 'The people who tell you Social Security is in trouble are either lying or unaware of the numbers to start with'

Privatizers know the numbers, you can tell by the topics they refuse to discuss. When was the last time you saw an open discussion of the economic and demographic assumptions underlying the Intermediate Cost alternative? It never happens, privatizers simply will not go there.

Their numbers simply don't run. Any amount of economic growth that would make private accounts work would overfund Social Security as currently configured. They know that and in fact are counting on it. Their plan is clearly to let growth save the day and then give all credit to the private accounts.

'There Is No Crisis' was the right message for 2005. Some variation on 'The Bastards are Lying about Social Security, like They Lie about Everything Else' is the right message for 2008. Mainly because it is true.

'No Crisis' is essentially a defensive message. Instead we need to open a little can of FDR Whoopass and apply it where it hurts. Social Security can be a powerful political weapon for progressives. We have the numbers, lets use them.


[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
I was more making a joke about how I had called Stoller last December or January when the Iran issue was heating up because I thought it would be the perfect domain for that issue.

[ Parent ]
The guy is just cybersquatting (0.00 / 0)
Might be worth asking his price.

Because it might take the same tactics on Iran as you did in 2005: loud, often, and everywhere, to hopefully move opinion.

It is a scary thing that the hopes for peace here largely rest in Gates maintaining his cool in the face of Cheney nuttiness. It is a hell of a thing to have to rely on an ex-CIA director.


[ Parent ]
Josh Marshall on Social Security and Obama (4.00 / 2)
Put the Marshall post and the Krugman column together and you see a very important point.  Not only is there not a crisis, but that puuting more money into Social Security by raising the cap would not be a wise political move at all because it enables a form of theft.

http://talkingpoints...

You:
"The problem, of course, is that Clinton also believes that Social Security needs to be made more solvent, so there's not really a great contrast here"

Marshall
"If we start pumping a lot more money into Social Security coffers now it will by definition go into more government bonds, which is another way of saying that it will go toward funding our current deficit spending. In fact it will enable more deficit spending and probably more upper-income tax cuts because it will make the consequences of both easier to hide."

"If we want to push the buffer of the Trust Fund further out onto the horizon, then fiddle with payroll taxes when Social Security would need to start dipping into Trust Fund. In other words, in a decade or so. I see no reason why this approach doesn't work just as nicely then as it would now."

"As Paul Krugman noted in the interview I did with him a few weeks ago, the window of time we had to seriously pare down the national debt to prepare for the retirement of the baby-boomers is close to over. Still, though, our best way of ensuring the future health of Social Security is to stop running up the national debt now. So I'm very reluctant to put more payroll taxes in the pot while we're still running big deficits because of the Bush tax cuts. The money will just go to subsidizing that irresponsible fiscal policy."

There's more in the post.

I must disagree with you that Clinton's position and Obama's have no significant distance between them. It's late and I can't remember where Hillary was quoted, but she essentially said what Josh just said in this post.  We need to deal with the disastrous fiscal house that Georgie boy is leaving us,  that there are much more important problems facing us NOW that need funding like ....universal health care and investing in an independent energy future.

She actually understands this the same way as Krugman and Marshall.

"His arguments about Social Security are stupid and wrongheaded, but I think those can be beaten back.  His arguments about an open internet are great, and my guess is that he'll move them forward and Clinton will do the opposite"

Obama is very wrong, not just on the problem itself but how he would try to solve it demonstrates his fundamental flaw, which applies to any issue/problem he would try to deal with.

I think just the opposite, he'll start and he will be waylaid and start to think the R's have a point, because, after all they're people....not extremist monsters.  She will push as hard as possible .... and deal only when she has to.  Because that's her nature.

Krugnman
"I don't believe Mr. Obama is a closet privatizer. He is, however, someone who keeps insisting that he can transcend the partisanship of our times - and in this case, that turned him into a sucker." 

This approach is so inherent to his very personhood that it won't get beaten back, and it will pop up like whack a mole in his attempt to deal with anything he does....even his telecom/net neutrality program.

He is a compromiser by nature, a post partisan, Sistah souljah stance is built into his genotype.  Hillary is not that by temperment,she is one only by circumstance and necessity.  Obama will give away a lot of the store, Hillary will only give enough candy to get something done. 



"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller


Life Expectancy (0.00 / 0)
In the coming years, especially if a Democrat is elected President and a Universal Health Care bill is passed, the life expectancy in the United States will likely increase at a faster than predicted rate, which really isn't fully accounted for in a lot of the estimates.

The SSA says there are about 35 years until payments and the Trust can't cover benefits, the Congressional estimate is a little longer, I think. It may not be the most pressing political issue, but it's certainly one worth looking into. Medicare and other health programs are definitely going to be accounting for a lot more of the coming increasing costs of running the government, though.


[ Parent ]
Don't think so (0.00 / 0)
I doubt life expectancy is going to go up that much. A quick look on Wikipedia tells me that the average US life expectancy is 78.2 years. That's only about four years less than Japan, which tops the table.

I couldn't find a breakdown by income, and it's likely that UHC will help the poorest most (although it won't close the age gap - in Britain there's nearly a decade of difference in life expectancies between economic group A and economic group E). Nevertheless, whilst a rise in life expectancy will materialise, it won't be an enormous increase on what would be expected anyway - most of the increase will likely be in quality, not quantity, of life.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
More "crisis" talking points (4.00 / 1)
Actually, life expectancy numbers have been leveling off. But that's irrelevant anyway. The real question is general economic growth and wage growth. You can't project those accurately enough to conclude this one way or the other.

But you can take Krugman's point that you're being a sucker thinking that anything you do now is going to matter.  Talking about the worker/retiree ratio, discussing the size of the boomer cohort, etc, is all manufactured crisis talk--that, in the event, will NOT be addressed by any "reform," just as the last "crisis" was not resolved by the "reform." All the "reform" did was push out the date at which pay as you go wouldn't cover expenditures, because the promised surpluses were never run (except for three of the Clinton years).

But, in the event, it was crazy to raise payroll taxes in 1983 so that payroll tax revenues in 2010 would cover SS payments. And that is what we ended up with. It would have been far better to leave well enough alone, and raise payroll taxes when the money was needed. 


[ Parent ]
By 2041 (4.00 / 1)
So tell me what is going to be happening in 2041?  It is quite possible that at that time 20% of the United States will be under water and the rest suffering from severe drought.  Or that no substitute for oil will ever be found and we will be scratching out a living on substance farms with less food than the Ingalls family had in the Dakota Territory in the 1880s.  Or that we do build a magic Mr. Fusion Home Energy Kit(tm) and everyone is living a life of luxury.

However, we do know one thing for a fact:  if the Radical Right is given more money via tax increases for Social Security they will find a way to transfer it to their super-rich supporters.

sPh


[ Parent ]
yeah... (0.00 / 0)
it is possible that the United States will be under water in 2041...

or, more likely, we'll have a Republican President who comes up with a privatization scheme to "save" Social Security when we can no longer make the full benefit payments. The crisis may be manufactured now, but it will be very real then.

And exactly how is it that the radical right and their super-rich supporters will be the ones benefiting from removing the income cap?


[ Parent ]
Played for a Sucker (4.00 / 1)
That's the title of the Krugman piece.  The key to it, if course is that (in Krugman's judgement), Obama is far more moved by the opinions of the Beltway crew of serious pundits (Timmy and Broder and Matthews) than by any consideration or, heaven forbid, examination, of the facts.

In football terms, Obama is ceding field position time after time.  For nothing except the alleged good opinion of some elite and elitist fools.  Unfortunately, if we keep playing on their turf, we are not only less likely to score but are more likely to make mistakes leading to easy policy gains by the hard right.

I see the net neutrality thing as a cheap bone that Obama is throwing to the left and especially the netroots to buy their gratitude and acquiesence.  Nothing big like residual forces or actually getting some partisan spine.  I don't trust him.  He is more than smart enough but seems too much in the control of the Beltway Boys.  And the Beltway Boys benefit, at least short term, by keeping down the peasants of the blogs and elevating "the real journalists" of Georgetown cocktail parties.

Off topic. but the CW is that Clinton won and Edwards lost.  Badly.  He was exiled to Dennis Kucinich land on the stage and got half the talking time of Obama.  Yepsen's column in the Des Moines Register is headlined, IIRC, "That's why the Lady is a Champ."  Obama was seen as losing the debate (muffing the license question for one)but gaining big time by the marginalization of Edwards.  Yepsen makes the interesting point that Hillary neeeds two healthy rivals in Iowa.  I am not so sure that the Edwards camp and the Obama camp are so interchangeable as "anti-Hillary."  Personally, I'm pro-Edwards, not anti-Hillary.  She's my third choice behind Edwards and Richardson.  I am anti-Obama.  The anti-partisan Beltway obeisance makes me barf.


net neutrality is a stop-gap (4.00 / 1)
Net neutrality is just a stop-gap to hold off the worst abuses of the providers, to prevent them from favoring content. The fundamental problem is anti-competitive behavior by incumbent carriers, the people who installed the wires to your house. Many advocates don't realize (and Lessig should know better but the imperative to advocate for his buddy Obama overwhelms his integrity) that even under neutrality regulation the incumbents have lots of tricks to favor themselves. "Accidental" line cutting and broken customer support systems are common tactics they use to disfavor competitors, even under the "neutral" tariff regulations.

The real solution is to prevent the pipe owners from providing content, and set the rules so that they face meaningful competition. This probably means putting cable companies and telcos under the same regulatory framework, and restricting them from providing content.


[ Parent ]
Priorities? (4.00 / 1)
You really should think long and hard about what exactly you stand for.

You acknowledge that Obama gets a basic position on Social Security dead wrong yet, somehow, on balance, his position on net neutrality wins you over to him.

Talk about a "narcissitic festival of self love".


The Dancing Bear (0.00 / 0)
Was it Mark Twain who said that the remarkable thing about a dancing bear is not how well he dances, but that he dances at all?

Anyway, the dictum surely applies to Kilgore as well:

In Kilgore's world, it has to be some sort of calculated strategic response to Obama's rise in the polls, just as we are susceptible to Edwards' populist pandering because we are the Left.  It can't be a pure response to ideas.  It just can't be.

The reality is that my opinion of Obama hasn't changed that much, except that I believe he has some great ideas about how to transform government and media.  My experience and knowledge base, as well as my sources in the telecom policy arena tell me that Obama's stuff is for real, and that Clinton's priorities are extremely problematic.  That's not small beer, and I wish Kilgore would actually address the substance of the differences between Clinton and Obama on these policy ideas....

Anyway, please, Ed, next time, consider some substance when interpreting discussions on the 'Left'.

The remarkable thing about Kilgore's piece is that he talks about Social Security, Net Nuetrality and the left at all.  Asking for substance as well is like asking the bear to dance well.

Your average bear just doesn't have a dancing bone in his body.  Nary a one.  And Kilgore just doesn't have a "substantive analysis" bone in his body.

At least not when it comes to "the left," that is.

There is, after all, a heavily-protected hot-house "substantive analysis" industry in Versailles, that can only survive with the most intense form of protectionism--i.e. demonizing the hell out of anyone on the outside.

Once you take real critical analyses out of the picture, once-over-lightly passes as profound, and anything can be sold for any purpose, so long as the price is right.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"


From the Dancing Bear (0.00 / 0)
'Scuse me, Paul, but could you maybe read the post by me that Matt's writing about, and then read your comment above, and tell me who's engaged in "demonizing" here?

The whole point of my post was very simply to suggest that the way Barack Obama talks about certain subjects bugs a lot of people who otherwise like his policy proposals, because it doesn't fit in with a strongly held netroots take on the two parties, the issues terrain, and the relationship of candidates to progressive constituencies.  The observation is hardly original to me; you see it all over the blogosphere. 

Perhaps Matt and perhaps you make your judgments about candidates for president strictly on the basis of their policy prescriptions.  More power to you if that's the case. But if consideration of candidate characteristics like thematics and framing and intraparty and extraparty relationships, and yes, even electibility, is "non-substantive" and attribution of them to others is actively offensive, then a good 80% of the candidate analysis in the progressive blogosphere is "non-substantive" and insulting as well. 

The weird thing is that I quoted Matt and Chris in my post as a sign of respect for people who are seriously struggling with candidate preferences in a field that they have both often described as disappointing for a variety of reasons, not all of them--sorry, but it's true--having to do with policy. 

As for your confident assertion that I "don't have a substantive bone in my body," (something I'd hesitate to say about much of anybody, much less somebody I've never actually met) I'd be glad to have a friendly wonk contest with you any old time.  But that's not the primary function of the Democratic Strategist web site where my post originally appeared. And if you read that site over time, you'll see that those of us who post there are  interested in understanding intraparty dynamics as a healthy and healing exercise in free debate--much like OpenLeft. 

Ed Kilgore


[ Parent ]
Donate to Open Left









QUICK HITS

Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.


blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search