| I am both really pleased and really nervous about Huckabee doing so well in Iowa, but the nervous side of me is winning right now in terms of how this could play out.
Like David Sirota here, I am always pleased when populist economics shows up in a political campaign, even when it comes from a Republican and even if the candidate's policy prescriptions generally suck, as is the case with Huckabee. But to see politicians raising these issues, and see voters responding to them, always feels good.
I am also thrilled at the idea of an all-out civil war between the Christian fundamentalist wing and the economic-royalist wing of the Republican Party primary with Huckabee and, say, Giulani, as the two finalists after the smoke clears from the early states would definitely set such a conflagration off. That would not only be fun to see, it could have really exciting long-term implications if it helps conservative Christians wake up to the way they have been used by the economic royalists.
I would add that if Huckabee actually gets the nomination, it might help force the Democratic nominee to become more of a populist on the campaign trail. A race to see who could be most convincing in speaking out for the regular folks against big business, which could be a good thing.
But for all those positives, I worry a great deal about a Huckabee candidacy. For one thing, I'm less certain that the scenario in the above paragraph would play out, and the idea of Huckabee running a strong economic populist campaign while our candidate ran a more cautious, centrist campaign (not hard to imagine, is it?) is horrifying.
But what scares me the most about Huckabee is that I just think he is by far the best general election candidate on the Republican side. Unlike Giuliani, McCain and Romney, he unites and excites the GOP voting base. Unlike Thompson, he is a thoughtful and articulate candidate on policy, and has real accomplishments he can point to from his time in public office. He's warm and charming and optimistic, and doesn't sound like the hardliner he is on social issues. Watching him charm and entertain Stewart, Colbert and their young, urban, liberal audiences was astonishing to me.
If he wins Iowa, the battle royale begins with the economic royalists in the Republican Party. But if Huckabee survives that onslaught, and wins the nomination, don't take him lightly because he seems like a kooky fundamentalist- he will be tough to beat.
Update (Chris): Huckabee continues to surge in Iowa, with the latest Rasmussen poll on the campaign showing him taking the lead over Romney, 28% to 25%, with everyone else far behind. The current five-poll average for Republicans in Iowa is Romney 26.4%, Huckabee 23.6%, Giuliani 13.2%, Thompson 11.4%. Clearly, Huckabee has all of the momentum. |
