Democratic Nomination, At a Glance All state polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted November 25th through December 8th
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$23.4M
$5.1M
$0.8M
$0.3M
$2.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
8
26.6%
26.5%
22.8%
7.9%
5.1%
1.4%
1.0%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
8
33.1%
24.4%
15.6%
9.1%
2.9%
2.4%
0.9%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
22.0%
11.5%
4.5%
4.0%
3.0%
1.0%
South Carolina
Jan 26
4
33.3%
26.5%
14.5%
1.3%
6.0%
1.5%
0.8%
Florida
Jan 29
3
52.7%
20.7%
10.3%
2.5%
1.0%
2.5%
0.5%
National
Feb 05
NA
44.0%
23.0%
12.0%
3.5%
2.9%
2.3%
1.0%
Obama appears to clearly be getting closer in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Why then, would I put Clinton back in front? The reason, as always, is Iowa. Simply put, I don’t trust the likely voter screens being used in the state. The final set of 2004 polls showed Dean doing better, and Edwards doing worse, among likely voters. However, when the actual voting took place, the opposite proved to be true. As such, I don’t use “likely” or “certain” voter results, that currently slightly favor Obama. Further, Clinton has erased Obama’s advantage among second-choice results. Newsweek (C 21%--20% O), Rasmussen (O 18%--16% C), Mason-Dixon (O 30%--29% C), and Zogby all show Clinton gaining ground among second-place choices. Third, and most importantly, the Iowa trend appears flat over the last two weeks. While Huckabee appears to be pulling away on the Republican side, Obama and Clinton remain deadlocked. The last seven media polls out of Iowa show Obama ahead in three, and Clinton ahead in four (although in two of the polls where Clinton leads, Obama actually leads among all voters). Clinton also leads in the Edwards internal poll from Iowa. And yes, I include internal polls in the means.
So, while Obama is now clearly in position to take both New Hampshire and South Carolina should he win Iowa, and close enough in Nevada that a double Iowa--New Hampshire sweep should be more than enough there, I can no longer say with an certainty that Obama is ahead in Iowa. Until Obama regains a clear Iowa advantage, Clinton will remain the frontrunner. In this instance, a “clear Iowa advantage” is defined as one candidate ahead in two-thirds or more of all Iowa polls, and two-thirds or more of all trendlines. It is all about Iowa. Click here for more thoughts on what aspects of polling matter most in the first nomination campaign state.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance All state polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted November 25th through December 8th
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$0.6M
$9.2M
$11.4M
$6.4M
-$0.1M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
7
28.9%
23.9%
10.4%
10.4%
6.6%
4.6%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
8
10.3%
32.6%
17.8%
3.6%
16.6%
6.0%
Michigan
Jan 15
1
21.0%
20.0%
19.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
4
21.5%
17.0%
17.3%
15.5%
9.8%
4.3%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
20.0%
24.5%
21.0%
7.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Florida
Jan 29
4
15.3%
13.0%
31.5%
11.0%
11.0%
4.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
16.2%
11.5%
26.3%
13.1%
13.6%
4.2%
Huckabee now holds a solid lead in Iowa, ahead in five of the last seven polls and down by only 1% in the two polls where he trails. Given the trendline, that lead is well on it’s way to becoming a decisive advantage. He maintains his lead in South Carolina, and now has even nosed ahead in Michigan. With second place standings in Florida and nationwide, he has become the clear Republican frontrunner, even though he still struggles a bit in New Hampshire and financially.
Now, Huckabee's rise won’t continue at this same pace. This is a typical pattern for every new candidate to grab the national attention: meteoric rise because all the press is good, followed by a period when s/he comes back down to Earth when the press coverage stops being perfect. Also, establishment Republican attacks against him on taxes and terrorism will intensify significantly over the next four weeks. Without much money to back him up, can he withdstand the barrage? Really, that is anyone’s guess, but given the pattern of the Republican campaign so far, I bet he crashes pretty hard at some point. Huckabee is the fifth national leader in the Republican campaign, and none of the previous four showed any ability to stay on top. The 2008 Republican nomination is just like the 2007 BCS, in that whoever wins will probably end up winning by default.
Notes: The Nomination At A Glance formula is based on polling averages over the last two weeks. It projects the Iowa winner to gain 11.3% on the Iowa second place finisher in New Hampshire, and 18% on the Iowa third-place finisher (the second place finisher gains 6.7% on the third place finisher). It projects that a sweep of Iowa and New Hampshire will provide a 33% boost nationally. This is based on data provided by diarist fladem, and should be treated as estimates, rather than hard numbers.
Click here for previous nomination at a glance results. Candidates are listed from left to right according to how likely it currently appears each is to winning the nomination. Early state polls can be found here and here. Net available cash means cash on hand for the primaries minus debts owed by the campaigns (info here and here). The primary calendar, at long last, is finally set. National polls are substituted for the 20 states holding caucuses or primaries on February 5th, but that will change if even one organization begins conducting a daily tracking poll of only the February 5th states. Michigan is not included for Democrats because virtually all have withdrawn their names from the ballot.
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