Skeptical (0.00 / 0)

While I agree with most of the things you're saying here, I'm skeptical of the notion that IA and NH's lack of African American population helps Obama because of the electability issue.

We've heard a lot about people voting on electability in primaries, but clearly not everyone does, and it would seem to me that the people most likely to break that pattern would be those for whom identity is a major factor (just look at Republican primary voting patterns...). Even if they're not voting for Obama because he's black, the identity issue may be enough to make black voters throw "electability" aside.

I would also argue that black primary voters are less likely to vote on electability in a presidential primary, but I can't back that up in fewer than 15 pages, so I'll leave that to the experts.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee

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by: msnook @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 11:31:07 AM CST

All Dems electable compared to GOPers (or should be) (0.00 / 0)

I'm still scared about Huckabee, but if you look at the Rasmussen tracking poll, he's dropped since his high last week, and is behind Giulianni 24-19, when Huck was up 22-18 over Giulianni last week.

Although I'm a pessimist by nature, the GOP candidates sure all seem to suck way more in the electability category than the top three Dems.

John McCain won't insure children

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by: magster @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 12:06:26 PM CST

E;ectability (0.00 / 0)

Rasmussen has done numerous match-up's of the candidates nationallyand Obama fairs quite wtll compared to Clinton

Also a recent IA poll showed only 24$ ranked electability as important compared to other factors. This is un-like 2004

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by: BDM @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 13:58:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Spiral of silence? (0.00 / 0)

To test views about the jawdropping possibility that a black man of Obama's history and skin tone might be elected US president next year, I think we need a little more than this!

Not that these focus group subjects are necessarily lying.

For a start, the last graf of Chris's quote - 

A couple of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would cure most of those problems.

is truly horrible: it looks like the scribe just pulled it from his ass. That's not what the poll subjects said, or even the pollster's interpretation, though an unwary reader might infer that it was one or other.

There's a Russian doll of problems here: for a start, the views of poll subjects of their own likely views in Jan/Feb primaries is one thing; asking them about their views on what general election voters as a body will do in Nov 08 is quite another!

Then, there's the nest of possibilities about the respondents own views about electing a black prez in general.

Some, naturally, think they would never do so. Others may think they might at some later stage, when the country was ready. Still others honestly think that they would be prepared to do so in Nov 08, but that voters generally would not be so prepared.

Plus at least another dozen permutations.

But, of course, pollsters never get access to those views: they can only go by what the respondents communicate in words and body language.

Especially with blacks in the room, I would hypothesize that most whites would self-censor on statements relating to a black prez.

Or, at least, be prepared be more willing on that account to indulge their druthers on the subject.

So - if I were Obama, I'd want to feel out the possibility (amongst many others) that IA and NH wins for him would come as an unpleasant surprise for a significant slice of Super Tuesday voters, who would adjust their votes accordingly.

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by: skeptic06 @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 14:02:41 PM CST

Your are right. (0.00 / 0)

"Given that African-Americans perceive greater racism in American than do whites, it simply stands to reason that African-Americans would be more convinced that Barack Obama would have a difficult time winning an election because he is African-American."

Again it is anecdotal, but I heard the same thing from the three or four African American voters I talked to about Obama in Hew Hampshire.

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by: the new @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 14:06:25 PM CST

Has there been any talk that Obama may be more electable b/c (0.00 / 0)

of race.  Just speaking anecdotally, GOPers in my family like Obama and are saying it would be neat to have a black president, and they still hate Hillary.

John McCain won't insure children

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by: magster @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 14:23:49 PM CST

Not so sure (0.00 / 0)

that one comment in a directed focus group is enough to build your conclusion. For example, I've heard many concerns over Obama being a black man--none of them from black people.  Given the default cultural logic, I think you have to work very hard to build counter-intuitive conclusion that it's black attitudes towards race that might hold back a black candidate rather than white attitudes.

The stronger variable might be how much political reciprocity the Clintons have built up with black political leaders over the past 20 years or so, vs. how little Obama seems to have.  He seems good at building it right now (read: Oprah), but he is late to that particular game.

Thus, while Obama seems to embody black political accomplishment at a symbolic level, the Clintons have built a political foundation by facilitating black political advancement--obviously not without problems, but still:  they've done it.  It's the kind of comparison that will give rise to dozens of Poli Sci dissertations.

This means that Obama has symbolic cache on the question of race that, given enough time, he should be able to convert to political support large enough to negate Clinton's edge in this area.  But he may not have enough time.  Or does he?  It's incredibly interesting, not to mention historic..

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by: Jeffrey Feldman @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 15:43:25 PM CST

Conversation with someone who has always voted Dem BEFORE (4.00 / 1)

I have said in some earlier comments on this blog that racsim is now so unacceptable in this country that most people will not admit to themselves much less to others that they harbor such unconscious fellings..  But it is there and it is there in Democrats as well as Republicans. sure when they don't pull the lever for the African African they will say it will will be some other reason....but that will be there.

And I do think that like those African American they have a reason fo rconcern in the general.

And what confirms it for me is the conversation I had a couple of hours ago with someone I know pretty well. This person said that if Obama's the nominee, that this person's vote will go to the Republican.  This person had voted for David Dinkins, the African American mayor of NY the first time and came to regret it, but and otherwise always voted for Democrats.

It was distressing to hear.  You would think we were past that as a country, but it seems we're not. 

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

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by: debcoop @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 15:44:52 PM CST

Race and electability (0.00 / 0)

There is no doubt in my mind that Colin Powell could easily won the Presidency.
Before he betrayed everyone, he was the most trusted and admired public figure in the United States.

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by: lentinel @ Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 19:34:39 PM CST