Democratic Nomination, At a Glance All state polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted November 30th through December 13th. Only the most recent poll from each polling organization is included.
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$23.4M
$5.1M
$0.8M
$0.3M
$2.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
8
26.8%
27.4%
22.4%
8.4%
4.4%
1.3%
0.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
8
32.1%
27.5%
15.9%
7.4%
2.8%
2.5%
0.6%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
22.0%
11.5%
4.5%
4.0%
3.0%
1.0%
South Carolina
Jan 26
5
34.4%
32.2%
14.4%
1.5%
6.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Florida
Jan 29
2
53.5%
20.5%
10.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
43.3%
24.0%
12.0%
3.3%
3.4%
1.8%
1.0%
Republican Nomination, At a Glance All state polls included in the averages had the majority of their interviews conducted November 30th through December 13th. Only the most recent poll from each polling organization is included
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$0.6M
$9.2M
$11.4M
-$0.1M
$6.4M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
7
33.1%
22.5%
9.3%
5.9%
9.6%
5.3%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
8
10.4%
31.9%
16.9%
18.0%
3.4%
5.8%
Michigan
Jan 15
1
21.0%
20.0%
19.0%
8.0%
9.0%
7.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
5
24.4%
16.4%
15.0%
10.4%
16.8%
6.3%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
20.0%
24.5%
21.0%
7.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Florida
Jan 29
3
18.7%
16.7%
27.0%
8.7%
11.0%
4.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
20.5%
15.0%
23.3%
12.8%
9.7%
4.3%
Commentary on the new numbers, including an explanation for why Clinton remains in front despite Obama leading in Iowa, and be found in the extended entry.
Democratic Commentary
With Iowa and New Hampshire both balanced on a knife’s edge, if either Clinton or Obama wins Iowa, then the caucuses simply must be the tipping point for the New Hampshire primary now. And if someone wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is very hard for me to see how s/he doesn’t go on to sweep the rest. So, unless Edwards wins Iowa, this looks like a one-state campaign. If Edwards does win Iowa, then it is anyone’s guess as to what happens. Will he get enough of a boost in New Hampshire to take that state, too? I give it about a 50% shot. Will he draw more from one of the two frontrunners in New Hampshire, leading to a victory for the other frontrunner? I’d give this a 50% shot, favoring the candidate who took second in Iowa. Will an Iowa and New Hampshire double for Edwards be enough to put him ahead nationally? I’d give him about a 60% shot on that front. Will the established media finally consider the campaign to be more than Clinton vs. Obama? Probably, at least in a partial sense.
Right now, I give Clinton roughly a 50% chance of winning the nomination, Obama roughly a 45% chance, and Edwards roughly a 5% chance. The rest of the field has less than a 1% chance right now. The reason I keep Clinton in front, even though Obama currently leads the Iowa averages, is that of four of the last eight Iowa polls show Clinton ahead, Newsweek shows a split between Clinton and Obama depending on which sample one looks at, one poll shows a tie, and only two polls, Strategic Vision and Research 2000, show Obama ahead. The key is that Clinton leads in more polls, but Obama leads by more in the polls where he leads. In other words, Obama leads according to the Iowa mean, while Clinton leads according to the Iowa median. I’ll keep Clinton in the overall lead until someone else leads in both. And yes, I am using the Edwards internal poll of Iowa in my averages, something that I intend to keep doing until December 19th. I also use the the Newsweek “all voters” Iowa sample, because 2004 results indicate we shouldn’t trust likely voter screens in Iowa.
Republican Commentary
Giuliani stays in third place because he leads Florida and nationally. McCain moves into fourth, ahead of Thompson, because there is now an outside chance that McCain could win New Hampshire. A Huckabee Iowa win could cause Romney’s New Hampshire support to collapse just enough for McCain to sneak in there. The Thompson campaign has really turned into a waste of everyone’s time.
The main show continues to by Huckabee vs. Romney. Huckabee looks solid to win Iowa with Romney in a clear second, while Romney looks solid to win New Hampshire with Huckabee in a clear second following his Iowa boost. Huckabee and Romney will then battle it out in Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina for the title. If you don’t believe in momentum, consider that Huckabee and Romney have already received Iowa and New Hampshire bounces nationally, moving up to second and third from fourth and fifth only a week ago. They are also both pre-surging in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida.
Methodological Notes: The Nomination At A Glance formula is based on polling averages over the last two weeks. It projects the Iowa winner to gain 11.3% on the Iowa second place finisher in New Hampshire, and 18% on the Iowa third-place finisher (the second place finisher gains 6.7% on the third place finisher). It projects that a sweep of Iowa and New Hampshire will provide a 33% boost nationally. This is based on data provided by diarist fladem, and should be treated as estimates, rather than hard numbers.
Nomination At A Glance is updated when enough new polls warrant an update. This time, it took two days for enough polls to be released. Given the holiday season, I’m trying to figure out the best thing to do with the dates included in the polling averages. While I want to drop down to a one-week polling average soon, there might not be many polls released in the week before the Iowa caucus. I don’t want pre-Christmas polls in my final pre-Iowa averages, but the lack of polls might not offer me anyway around that. So, for now, I’ll stick with a two-week polling average, but keep an open mind and continue to ponder the problem.
Click here for previous nomination at a glance results. Candidates are listed from left to right according to how likely it currently appears each is to winning the nomination. Early state polls can be found here and here. Net available cash means cash on hand for the primaries minus debts owed by the campaigns (info here and here). The primary calendar, at long last, is finally set. National polls are substituted for the 20 states holding caucuses or primaries on February 5th, but that will change if even one organization begins conducting a daily tracking poll of only the February 5th states. Michigan is not included for Democrats because virtually all have withdrawn their names from the ballot.
