As Iowa Comes Down to the End...

by: Mike Lux

Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 11:01


For the year-end holiday season, my wife Barbara and I do the same thing every year, which is to head to the Midwest and split time between my family in Lincoln, NE and hers in the far northwestern corner of Missouri. This year, I'm going to head over to Des Moines after the family extravaganzas are finished, and take in the final days in Presidentialpalooza land. Should be a hell of a trip, in more ways than one.

This will likely be the last time I write about Iowa before I land in the war zone, as the Omaha/Lincoln media market covers western Iowa as well, and Barbara's family farm is only five miles from the Iowa border, so I will be seeing a lot of presidential campaign action even before I get to Des Moines. Frankly, I don't think I have a huge amount to add to the commentary and predictions you've been seeing every day from every other pundit and writer around: it's a down to the wire, three-way race. From what I hear from Iowans, and read about the race, my best guess right now is that Obama wins, Edwards is second, and Hillary is third, and that the top three stay pretty close together. But things could change in a heartbeat, there are still a remarkably high number of undecideds, and the caucuses are extremely unpredictable.

On the Republican side, don't be surprised to see Romney win in Iowa. Huckabee's field organization is almost 100% volunteer, and he's starting to take on some water. Romney is perfectly positioned to be this year's comeback kid, and win the nomination.

One other thing I want to add as we wind down to the end: I am very proud of the progressive community for the role they've played in these caucuses. They inspired Edwards' hardcore populist message, Richardson's no residual troops pledge, and Dodd's FISA filibuster. And in general, they have moved the entire debate in the right direction. Congratulations to blogs like Iowa Independent, Political Forecast and Bleeding Heartland, and to groups such as Iowa CCI and the Iowa Citizen Action Network and the Priorities Project for all their amazing work.
Mike Lux :: As Iowa Comes Down to the End...

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As Iowa Comes Down to the End... | 11 comments
My Iowa Experience and Why I think Huckabee Wins (0.00 / 0)
I understand that you know Iowa caucus politics very well Mike, but based on my more limited experience, I think Huck's lack of organization won't prevent him from winning.  I worked as a field coordinator for Hart in 1984.  While I would love to claim that his second place showing there was do to his organization, I dont think it was.  Hart's success there, in my opinion, was all due to message.  Over the last 3 or 4 weeks before the vote, his campaign ran excellent TV ads done by a guy who I think is named Roy Strother.  To show how much more expensive campaigns are now, Hart had a pretty good ad buy over that period for something like $30,000.00.  At any rate, I believe it was Hart's message, delivered through television and the candidate's appearances, that gave Hart his second place showing.

Similarly, I think Huck's message of deeply religious beliefs and economic populism will draw people to the caucus on his behalf. 

Note, finally, that Huck did extremely well in the Iowa straw poll without having to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to get people to show up for him.  His people just turned out.  I think that will happen again on the 3rd.

I agree--Huck wins going away (0.00 / 0)
His campaign is being run by Bob Vander Plaats, onetime gubernatorial candidate and hero to social conservatives in heavily Republican NW Iowa.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
[ Parent ]
Could well be. (0.00 / 0)
You make a good case, and may well be right. I don't know the Republican side the way I do the Dems, and it's certainly true that money and organization are not all there is in the IA caucuses.
[ Parent ]
I don't think all three will finish close together (4.00 / 1)
I think either one of the Democrats will win by a significant margin, or the top two will be close and the third-place candidate will be behind by a significant margin.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
My guess is (0.00 / 0)
Mike will be right for the initial entrance polls. I don't think any of the three have a whole lot of "secret" supporters who aren't showing up in the polls. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, is on someone's list.

But I agree once the horse-trading and idiosyncratic counting is done, one candidate will emerge. It just always seems to be the case that someone (or sometimes two) garner the lion's share of the movement from beginning of caucuses to end. Remember, there will be many precincts where even one of the big three will be non-viable, especially in small, rural districts. So second choices go beyond what Richardson and Biden supporters (few thought they are) say they'll do.

The biggest factor in all of this, I think, is how support is spread throughout the state. Dean lost ground in 04 not so much because of his feud with Gephardt, or his poorly organized ground game, but because so much of his support was concentrated in a few districts, mostly in Des Moines and the college towns. I suspect (don't know) this favors Edwards significantly, and hurts Obama.

[ Parent ]
I think... (0.00 / 0)
people downplay Obama's strengths in rural areas.

I don't have any data on Iowa, but I know his strongholds in NH are the rural areas.

See here

The guy's personality and general demeanor are rooted as much in his Kansan grandparents as his city-life adulthood.  Just IMO.

[ Parent ]
Could be (0.00 / 0)
Obviously I don't have access to anyone's internal counts. But I am vaguely connected to the Edwards campaign and they seem (take that for what it's worth) to think their main opponent in the rural areas is Clinton. Obama's support seems to be very similar to Dean's, both geographically and demographically although not ideologically. Dean was also a pretty rural guy (governor of a rural state).
[ Parent ]
Rural. (0.00 / 0)
Given his 30 plus offices scattered all over the state, and the time he has spent compaigning in rural counties, I would be very surprised if Obama doesn't do reasonably well in rural IA. Edwards will probably win out there, but Obama should do fine.
[ Parent ]
Field offices doesn't really equal votes (0.00 / 0)
All it takes to have one is a rent check. And they've all spent huge amounts of time "out there." As a rural person myself, I just think folks like me can detect one of our own (Edwards) over urban types like Clinton and Obama. We'll see!
[ Parent ]
I've canvassed a lot in Ft. Madison (0.00 / 0)
where Obama has had a field office since the spring, and haven't seen a huge amount of support for Obama there.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!
[ Parent ]
Margin. (0.00 / 0)
I know several other folks who think the same thing, and in fact I thought the same thing for quite a while. I have been surprised and impressed, though, how all 3 of these campaigns just keep hanging right in there, giving no quarter.
[ Parent ]
As Iowa Comes Down to the End... | 11 comments
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