Also, I’m sticking with my new methodology, which works as follows. First, where possible, use registered voters instead of likely voters. Second, combine the most recent five-poll simple mean with the Pollster.com regression line. Third, estimated momentum is still based on fladem’s work (see here and here). Fourth and finally, I reserve the right to slightly tweak final estimated Iowa standings based on the various Iowa factors unique to the Iowa caucus, as discussed here and here.
A house of cards? Maybe. Presidential primaries are the most difficult to project elections in American politics. This is the best I can do.
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich
Dodd
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$32.2M
$30.5M
$18.0M
$5.1M
$1.5M
$0.4M
$3.5M
Iowa
Jan 03
5
29.3%
27.1%
24.1%
5.6%
5.5%
1.6%
1.6%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
5
31.0%
29.4%
16.9%
6.8%
2.6%
2.7%
0.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
5
43.0%
21.4%
12.0%
5.5%
3.6%
3.0%
1.0%
South Carolina
Jan 26
5
38.2%
33.8%
14.4%
1.6%
2.5%
1.4%
1.0%
Florida
Jan 29
5
47.9%
21.4%
13.8%
2.9%
2.6%
2.3%
1.7%
National
Feb 05
5
43.9%
25.1%
13.1%
2.5%
3.2%
1.8%
1.0%
The table appears to be set. If Clinton wins Iowa, it will almost certainly push her over the top in New Hampshire, thus handing her the nomination. If Obama wins Iowa, it will almost certainly push him over the top in New Hampshire, probably handing him the nomination. If Edwards wins Iowa, whoever comes in second in Iowa probably takes New Hampshire. If that is Clinton, she then goes on to take the nomination. If that is Obama, then strap yourself in for a long, close, three-way campaign. However, if Edwards keeps closing in New Hampshire, it remains possible he could take both states, thus setting up a close two-person campaign between Edwards and Clinton.
As far as Iowa itself goes, Clinton holds the current polling edge. However, Obama and Edwards, mainly Edwards, hold advantages in the “hidden” aspects of the caucus: second place choices and areas with lower population density. This means I favor Clinton, but can now see paths for all three to take both Iowa and the nomination. Right now, thinking out loud, I give Clinton a 55% chance, Obama a 35% chance, and Edwards a 10% chance to win the nomination.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
Paul
Net Avail Cash
Sep 30
Q3
$0.6M
$9.2M
$5.0M
$11.4M
$6.4M
$5.4M
Iowa
Jan 03
5
32.3%
23.5%
12.1%
8.3%
8.8%
5.5%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
5
10.6%
31.8%
23.4%
14.3%
3.3%
6.5%
Michigan
Jan 15
4*
18.8%
19.8%
13.0%
12.5%
6.5%
4.3%
South Carolina
Jan 19
5
24.3%
19.6%
11.8%
14.0%
14.6%
5.6%
Nevada
Jan 19
2*
20.0%
24.5%
7.0%
21.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Florida
Jan 29
5
22.9%
18.5%
11.0%
26.7%
9.0%
4.1%
National
Feb 05
5
21.1%
15.2%
13.9%
21.1%
11.3%
4.3%
If Huckabee wins Iowa, and it certainly looks like he will win Iowa, will Romney hold onto his lead in New Hampshire, or collapse and open the door for McCain? Right now, I think Romney will still win New Hampshire, as long as he isn’t blown out in Iowa (aka, by more than ten points). After all, McCain would suffer in terms of news coverage from a Huckabee win in Iowa, too. In fact, while many are arguing that Huckabee will help McCain in New Hampshire, I actually think that McCain’s rise could really help out Romney once New Hampshire is over. If Romney goes second and first in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Huckabee goes first and third in the two states, it seems entirely possible to me, if not likely, that Romney will go on to take Michigan, Nevada and even South Carolina. For a while I had been projecting Huckabee second in New Hampshire, but a third place finish there could stop his momentum in its tracks. Thus, if McCain takes second in New Hampshire, but not first, Romney will actually be the main beneficiary. Also, McCain’s New Hampshire success rests significantly in how well Obama does in Iowa. The better Obama does in Iowa, the worse McCain will likely do in New Hampshire, as New Hampshire indies choose between Obama and McCain.
But really, whatev. Good luck to anyone trying to figure this mess out.
Notes: Bold-face indicates either a lead or an effective tie. Due to the dramatic, post-Thanksgiving transformation of the Republican campaign, I thought it prudent to only include post-Thanksgiving polls. also, Michigan is intentionally excluded from the Democratic campaign because so few candidates are on the ballot. Cash on hand includes estimated loans taken in advance of matching funds.
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