The Freshness Factor

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 17:53


Obama used to annoy me when he did things like attack trial lawyers.  Trial lawyers defend people against large ruthless corporations, and they are often the only recourse for the defenseless.  It's not an exaggeration to say that, with weakened labor rights, trial lawyers are a key foundational element of a just civil system, and becoming a trial lawyer is actually a much less lucrative and safe career path than becoming a generic corporate lawyer.  Now I just find myself believing Obama; he genuinely thinks that being a trial lawyer is a greedy career choice, just like he endorses the war on terror, the central premise of the Bush-Cheney governance model.  It's his right to believe that, I just hope that we're all clear-eyed that this guy is pretty conservative and does not share our values.

I bring this up because I was randomly listening to Edwards on NPR with my Mom, and I was like, 'his speech is good'.  And it was.  And I realized that I had not heard him speaking very much, and now I am because there's just more reporting on him.  I don't have data on this, but it's pretty hard to argue that a recent Newsweek cover isn't an improvement over his former lack of mention in the press. 

What's interesting is that this creates a special dynamic of making Edwards sound fresh, even though he's been running longer than anyone.  Because his campaign has been so undercovered, with Edwards receiving slightly more media than his wife and far less than his competitors, his message of economic populism is new to most voters. 

With right track/wrong track numbers for the country at 22-63, new-sounding candidates tend to have a short positive burst of positive upswing.  It happened with Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Barack Obama on a national level.  And then it seems to be about consolidating your gains, which Thompson could not do, but Obama did.

Anyway, I could be wrong and I could be reading data into an argument I want to believe.  I was just struck by how new his speech sounded when I heard it on the radio, though it's quite possible that sitting on the floor in New York listening to NPR does automatically put me in touch with Iowa.  But since Edwards is surging right now in Iowa, why not pretend like the two trends are related?

UPDATE: Jed Report at Dailykos fleshes this out with data.  Here's a lovely chart.

Matt Stoller :: The Freshness Factor

Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Another point (4.00 / 1)
It seems like when the press actually covers Edwards, he gets more donations. Who would have thought?

http://tpmelectionce...

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!


The trouble is that undecideds may want BOTH fresh and viable. (0.00 / 0)
If they like Edwards's freshness, that's all we and good, but it seems to me that most undecideds (or even nominal Edwards supports) want him to be viable nationally.

And the jury's still out on that question.

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.


Jury I sit on sez; (0.00 / 0)
Edwards whips every ReThug, see latest at MyDD. His online cash is surgin'

How 'viable' is Obama? Without the 8.3 million dollars he's spent in IA where is he in the race?

Nowhere is where.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


[ Parent ]
The only jury (0.00 / 0)
still out are those  who are running out of arguments to explain thier endorse Obama over Edwards. Next you will argue as some of you have  that a vote for Edwards over Obama is a vote for Clinton.

[ Parent ]
Sheesh! (0.00 / 0)
You A-List bloggers must lead a strange life Matt.

Here's JRE on Trade:

http://www.openleft....

Edwards on folks who....well, they're not rich!

http://takeaction.wo...

And here's the speech he gave where Obama got all the press...All I can say is Obama must have been walkin' on the ceiling!

http://takeaction.wo...

So check it out. Edwards can fire that crowd up. The PumpkinHaid's and Tweety's of the scumbag corporate press have no answer for this guy because he's talkin' the truth about where this nation is at.

So...

They try and shut  him up.

He wins IA and all bets are off because many, like you Matt, will start to realize that this guy can get the job started.

Obama...Clinton....Ron Paul...HuckaBee!.....all hat, no cattle.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


An attack on Edwards, but not trial lawyers. (4.00 / 1)
Matt,

saying that A is better than B is not the same as attacking B. At least not in the same sense as Edwards "attacks" corporate lobbyists. This would be like saying Hillary Clinton is attacking state legislators when she compares her experience and accomplishments in the White House and Senate to Obama's previous experience in government. Obviously she think state legislators have a valuable roll to play. She just thinks being in the white house and Senate is more valuable to public service.  Believe me, a former President of the Harvard Law Review knows trial lawyers have a valuable roll to play in benefiting public welfare. Reading his quote it really seems to me like he is making a comparative statement. But maybe I'm just "drinking the cool-aid."

All this being said, obviously it is an attack on Edwards, even if I don't see it as an attack on trial lawyers. Edwards is siphoning off significant support from Obama in Iowa, and Obama's campaign team is panicking. No question about that. They are, unfortunately, beginning to look a bit desparate.


This is the beauty of politics! (0.00 / 0)
I agree with you especially the part about Obama's desperation. Must be tough to be Senator 'Hope' have spent 8.5 million of other people's money and be.....

Tied at best.

But as Shakespeare, Franklin and that great American T. Paine knew so well.....

You only get to see the true character of a man when he's desperate.

As Will put it:

'Let Hercules himself do what he may, The cat will mew and dog will have his day.'

Obama's day is over.

Happy New Year Matt, Chris, Paul and all the rest of the dissatisfied DFHs here at OpenLeft. The premier site of Free Left Blogistan!

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


[ Parent ]
Not trolling. (0.00 / 0)
Delete my comment if you will, but it doesn't change the fact that this statement is absolute bullshit.

It's his right to believe that, I just hope that we're all clear-eyed that this guy is pretty conservative and does not share our values.

Joe Lieberman is "pretty conservative" and doesn't share our values. Barack Obama might frame issues like shit, but that doesn't exclude him from what an outsider might call our exclusive club.


how about this (0.00 / 0)
his framing is consistently conservative

[ Parent ]
? (0.00 / 0)
Perhaps you could cite a handful of instances where Obama has framed issues in a conservative manner? Social Security may not actually be in a crisis (it's a crisis in itself), but saying there's a crisis isn't enough justification to brand him a conservative.

Being willing to fight the war on terrorism with no mention of using military force is quite progressive.

So what else?
Let's hear 'em.


[ Parent ]
Obama isn't conservative (0.00 / 0)
How can a politician with one of the most liberal voting records in the United States Senate be categorized as conservative?

There's a clear distinction between rhetoric and action.  You could make an argument that Obama's rhetoric is conservative.  Its not an argument I find particularly persuasive but it is a reasonable argument to make.

However, I do not see how you can define a congress person as belonging to one ideological camp when he consistently votes  the exact opposite. Using this logic, you could argue that the Bush Dogs are actually liberal because they sound liberal.

Judging a presidential candidate by his or rhetoric is important. But far more important is the things he or she has done, especially the votes they have cast.  I don't see how you can judge Obama a conservative if you consider his voting record, and I don't see how you can identify his ideological identity without accounting for his voting record.


Obama wins on raw charisma in speaking style (0.00 / 0)
but Edwards is still quite good. He still sort of builds a case in a lawyerly like fashion, but that's not a put down given that he was a hell of a lawyer.

Donate to Open Left








Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.

As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search