Off to Iowa

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 12:41


I'm not going to pretend to know whether Obama is winning in Iowa or not.  It seems like the last two polls suggest he's doing very well and the Edwards surge could be a statistical anomaly borne of holiday polling, and I do try not to be one of those people who, when confronted with a set of facts he doesn't like, reverts to feigned uncertainty.  Markos thinks Obama is in trouble in Iowa, and though the evidence in the form of these last two polls can be read that way, I trust Chris's judgment.  It's about turnout now.

I'm off to Iowa with a few folks for the next few days, including Adam Green of Moveon.  So I assure this is the last post before the caucuses where I speak in anything but falsely assertive Friedman-esque tones.  My next post will start with 'I was talking to a cab driver, and he told me that Iowa is flat.'

Happy new year. 

Matt Stoller :: Off to Iowa

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Off to Iowa | 8 comments
Iowa? Flat? (4.00 / 1)
The profundity flattened me, even if the state itself did have a few wrinkles left to be worked out.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
Bad signs for Edwards? (4.00 / 1)
The last 3 polls have all shown a decline in Edwards's numbers.

Zogby has him trending down by 1%
Des Moine register puts him in third place
CNN also has him in a distant third place.

  Earlier this week , Pollster.com made a convincing argument that Obama's poll numbers may be underestimated during the holiday's period because his supporters may be less likely to get through while the older folks who may be less likely to leave their home may be easier to get on the phone + they made a good case why pollster should not poll during this time of the year when people are constantly moving around.

Could it be that Obama's poll numbers are rebounding because people are returning home?


I used to think it was... (0.00 / 0)

................but if Friedman says it is....

I now have my doubts.

Stay warm and take no shit from anybody. I look forward to your impressions of 'Corn Country' and....

This strange thing they call a 'caucus'.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

Have a great time Matt (0.00 / 0)
Looking forward to your Iowa is flat post. And THANK YOU for not joining in the over the top latest Obama slam (event hough you linked to it LMAO), it is beyond pathetic.
DMR poll is based on new turnout (0.00 / 0)
and they are expecting 200,000 to go caucus for Dems on Jan3rd?  I don't think so.

Edwards is doing well, Clinton is steady.  Obama's turning into Joe Lieberman.  This is not good.

Maybe the Iowas pollsters know more than we do? (0.00 / 0)
Ya'think?
[ Parent ]
We'll Know Soon Enough (0.00 / 0)
The Iowa race has enough hidden variables to David Bohm back from the dead.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
dmr turnout (4.00 / 1)
DMR turnout model is 150,000 attendee's
[ Parent ]
Off to Iowa | 8 comments
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