I’m starting to think that, with the exception of tomorrow morning’s Zogby tracking numbers, there won’t be any more polls released before Iowa. Since the glance has two purposes, to make it easier to understand the state of the campaign and to predict the winner of the nomination before Iowa begins, this means that it is just about time for me to try and fulfill the latter purpose.
For the nearly final projection, I have decided to take the average of the most recent poll from every polling organization that polled Iowa since December 26th, and combine it with the sensitive poll estimate from Pollster.com. For New Hampshire, I have done the same thing. For national polls, I’ve decided to just use the Pollster.com projections. For momentum, I’m using the Iowa to New Hampshire and Iowa and New Hampshire to national, numbers produced by fladem.
I have to say, I don’t feel terribly confident about these numbers, as they seem to be projecting both the Democratic and Republican nominations to follow the same path that the 2004 Democratic nomination followed. In truth, Iowa is so close right now, there will probably be very little momentum from it. No matter who actually wins Iowa, this could very easily allow Clinton and McCain to win New Hampshire, putting them both in good shape to win their respective nominations. As an election forecaster, it isn’t fun trying to pick winners in contests where enormous structures are balanced on the head of a single, teetering pin. Still, in the extended entry, here are my nearly final pre-Iowa projections nonetheless.
Now, factoring in momentum, these numbers project out to the following results:
Projected Democratic Results
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
Edwads
Iowa
Jan 3rd
28.9%
27.8%
26.1%
New Hampshire
Jan 8th
41.3%
36.6%
14.2%
National
Feb 5th
51.2%
37.2%
6.8%
As I said, I don’t feel terribly confident about these numbers. I’m not convinced that a narrow victory in Iowa would give Obama enough of a boost to win New Hampshire. I am also not convinced that two narrow victories would give him enough of a boost to take over the national lead. However, this is what we should expect based on the results of the 1988 and 2004 Democratic campaigns. While that isn’t much to go on, trying to figure out how much momentum someone will get from an earlier state victory is an extremely difficult and nebulous task, at best, no matter how much data you have. Further, Obama might not win Iowa, or even finish in second. However, at this late date, with one or two Iowa poll still pending, if I am pushed to pick a winner in Iowa and in the nomination campaign overall, right now I’ll pick Obama.
And now to the Republican numbers…
Republican Nomination, At A Glance
State
Date
# of Polls
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Iowa
Jan 3rd
8
28.4%
28.1%
12.4%
New Hampshire
Jan 8th
4
28.3%
9.6%
31.0%
National
Feb 5th
NA
15.4%
25.6%
13.9%
Now, factoring in momentum, these numbers project out to the following results:
Projected Republican Results
State
Date
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Iowa
Jan 3rd
28.4%
28.1%
12.4%
New Hampshire
Jan 8th
42.8%
12.8%
27.5%
National
Feb 5th
40.9%
18.1%
7.4%
Once again, I don’t feel great about these numbers. However, if I am forced to pick a Republican winner in Iowa and in the nomination contest overall, right now I’ll pick Romney.
