New Hampshire Polls: Pre-Iowa Baseline

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:36

Both Zogby and Suffolk are conducting tracking polls of New Hampshire. Here is the average of their results, with both polls conducted before the results of Iowa were known to all poll participants:

Democrats
Clinton: 34.5%
Obama: 25.5%
Edwards: 17.5%
Richardson: 5.5%
Kucinich: 3.0%
Other / Unsure: 14.0%

Republicans
McCain: 29.5%
Romney: 29.5%
Huckabee: 11.5%
Giuliani: 9.0%
Paul: 7.5%
Other / Unsure: 12.0%

Given that these numbers will change based on Iowa results, it seems likely that Obama and Huckabee will rise, while Clinton and Romney will drop. This should make the Democratic side extremely close, and allow McCain to become the frontrunner on the Republican side. Edwards is a bit more of a mystery. Ron Paul will probably pass Giuliani, again.

These numbers are the pre-Iowa baseline. Among other things, it will be an interesting test of momentum to see what happens after this. An Obama win won't help McCain, especially since it seems Romney was starting to pull back on McCain just before Iowa. Ah, if only Romney had won Iowa--then he would be well on his way to being the least electable Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater.

Obama needs Iowa, too. If Clinton holds her ground in New Hampshire, her 19-point national lead could start to kick in, and Iowa could become old news very quickly.

Chris Bowers :: New Hampshire Polls: Pre-Iowa Baseline

Tags: President 2008, Polls, New Hampshire, (All Tags)

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New Hampshire Polls: Pre-Iowa Baseline | 9 comments

Funny (0.00 / 0)

I was reading this post with the TV on in the bg when an MSNBC anchor quoted from one of your posts last night.

It'll be interesting to see how much the numbers move, in NH and nationally. I suspect Obama won't make a serious dent into HRC's national numbers unless he is able to take NH and SC. We shall see!

by: ukit @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:02:05 PM CST

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chris on msnbc (0.00 / 0)

hey chris

alex witt just quoted you on msnbc, along w/politico and someone from the standard, in her bit on how blogs are reacting to last night.

congrats!

by: skippy @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:12:11 PM CST

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New Hampshire Polls: Pre-Iowa Baseline (0.00 / 0)

I posted a similar comment in a previous thread and thought I'd repost here for input. Given the high turnout from last night does anyone think it is possible that the turnout models being used by the pollsters may be off and Obama may actually be much closer to Clinton in NH (and nationally for that matter). Obviously, high turnout of young people helped push Obama over the top last night. If this group is being underpolled then Obama could be much closer than these polls are reporting - and this would be before any bump from last night's victory. I think it is highly likely that these pre-Iowa numbers significantly under-represent Obama's numbers.

by: HalLew @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:14:57 PM CST

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But the models <i>did</i> predict a huge turnout of new voters in Iowa (0.00 / 0)

the weird predictions, at the time, were a reason to doubt the models.

by: Valatan @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 13:50:14 PM CST

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Only the Register poll... (0.00 / 0)

and Zogby's tracking poll to a lesser extent...

by: moreaxe @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 15:31:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

33.8 27.3 17.8 6.0 (0.00 / 0)

Clinton - Obama - Edwards - Richardson

Realclearpolitics has the averages above for four different polls.

http://www.realclear...

by: progressivesouls @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:36:38 PM CST

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Suffolk Poll included? (0.00 / 0)

I'm a little skeptical of including the Suffolk poll, since it's numbers are so far away from where the other polls are. I think the race is probably closer than that.

by: arbitrista @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:37:00 PM CST

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An average? (0.00 / 0)

How in the world is an average of two polls - one of them Zogby, mind you, relevant in any way?

You couldn't find any other polls besides those two?

by: Elise @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:37:58 PM CST

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The Zogby poll is relevant (0.00 / 0)

Their phone polls are quite reliable, as they just showed in the Iowa caucuses.

The Suffolk poll is useless though...

by: moreaxe @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 13:16:23 PM CST

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New Hampshire Polls: Pre-Iowa Baseline

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:36