I don't think it will be close. (0.00 / 0)

I think Obama could break 50% and wins by 15-20 points or so in NH.

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by: howardpark @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:11:15 PM CST

Hoiw do you figure? (0.00 / 0)

He doesn't even reach 40% in any New Hampshire poll. Where does 50% come from?

Zogby one-day post-Iowa shows Obama at 34% barely ahead of Clinton. Rasmussen post-Iowa puts him at 37%, and Suffolk post-Iowa puts him at around 33%, behind Clinton.

The average gives him a lead of about three points. He's in the mid-thirties, ahead of Clinton's low thirties. 50% seems unlikely.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:14:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If... (4.00 / 1)

If NH surprises us in the same way as IA (especially with regard to youth turnout) I think 50% isn't out of the picture. 

But that's a really big IF.

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by: davisb @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:17:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Iowa wasn't a surprise (0.00 / 0)

The non-ARG polls called it almost precisely.

Undecided would push Obama to about 40% right now, so I guess there is an outside chance for 50% if his upward trend continues, and if his worst poll (Suffolk) is removed.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:19:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Are you sure? (0.00 / 0)

It seemed that only the DM Register poll and the Zogby poll were close on the margin of Obama's victory, but most polls never had Obama above 30-31% from looking over pollster.com polls from Iowa.

I've also heard that Obama's 38% take may have been higher as a percentage of actual voters, if it weren't for the disproportionate weighting of rural precincts where Clinton and Edwards did better.  This obviously won't happen in a primary situation, so I don't see 50% as out of the realm of possibilities.

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by: moreaxe @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:29:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I thought (0.00 / 0)

Zogby and Suffolk were both multiple-day tracking polls, while this Rasmussen was the only one-day. Clicking the links didn't make it much clearer, though.

How many people did Rasmussen poll, if you caught it before the site went down?

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by: illissius @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:31:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

According to Pollster.com (0.00 / 0)

Zogby was 1/1-1/4 and Suffolk was 1/3-1/4.

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by: illissius @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:37:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Oh (0.00 / 0)

You did math. Never mind, I can't read.

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by: illissius @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:48:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Site is back up now (4.00 / 1)

510 LV
predicting 40% independent turnout in Democratic primary
Obama leads by 5% among Democrats and 16% among Independents

Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.

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by: moreaxe @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:38:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's a feeling not a figure. (0.00 / 0)

I think the one thing Obama needed was to look presidential, to seem like a plausible President.  He got that in Iowa.  My feeling, and its only that, is that he will gain something like 6 points a day post-Iowa unless something happens to stop him right in his tracks.  The debate tonight is probably the last chance to stop Obama's momentum in NH.  Anyway, I may be just blinded by the Audacity of Hope. 

The real question in my mind is where does Hillary regroup?  Nevada? Michigan? South Carolina? California?
And how does she change the dynamic?  Attack Obama as too liberal?  Keep up with the experience issue?  A personal attack? Something else?  And how does she do all that & look good? 

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by: howardpark @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 13:26:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Inevitability was her argument (0.00 / 0)

  I don't quite share your sanguine feelings about Obama's prospects -- while he's in a good position, we still need to see what he does under the white-hot spotlight, and Hillary Clinton's well-developed infrastructure hasn't vanished. I do agree that an Obama win in New Hampshire WILL make him the prohibitive favorite -- but we can't count on that, either. (Full disclosure: I am an Edwards supporter.)

  That said, the problem the Clinton campaign is having right now is that the entire campaign was basically built on the "inevitability" meme, which no longer holds now that low-information voters have been introduced to a very credible and very appealing alternative. They were counting on Iowa setting the wheels in motion for a Hillary coronation, and that didn't happen. And it seems like they're now scrounging for a backup plan -- but that's hard to do, because Hillary was never about her message. So we see them flailing around with these "Obama is too liberal" attacks.

  Maybe the Hillary people really did believe that she was inevitable. If that's true, then I feel good about the long-term prospects of the Democratic Party, because it would mean that the establishment is pretty much clueless, and should be ripe for the taking.

  But do not count Hillary out -- she has batallions of activists, near-unlimited resources, and a very well-tooled campaign infrastructure. If anybody can overcome that it's Obama, who's no organizational slouch himself, but I'll reserve my predictions for now -- I can't remember the last time the grassroots beat the establishment in any capacity (ignoring temporary victories like Lamont).

  If Obama can resist believing the hype that surrounds him now, he should hang in there and win. We'll see if he does.

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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by: Master Jack @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 13:53:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They Did Believe in Inevitability... (0.00 / 0)

I know a few Clinton folks.  They really did believe she was inevitable.  That was thier whole reason for going with her along with nostalga for Bill.

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by: howardpark @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 15:15:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The elite conservative establishment (0.00 / 0)

and conservative media for that matter abhors Huckabee. While progressive though still skeptical are warming up to Obama. This might sound simplistic, but I think it is something to ponder.

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by: kekuta @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:12:53 PM CST

Phoey (0.00 / 0)

I think you are holding back. Why would you assume that the poll done only hours after a late night election victory would have the biggest bounce? What about the polling done today and tomorrow? Zogby and Suffolk will trend Obama's way for the next two days--probably with some double digit leads. There are 4000 people at a rally in Nashua today (Clinton got 1000+). His speech last night, in front of an excited crowd, is being touted as one of the best yet. Debates may not be his strong suit, however he tends not to lose them. Momentum is infectious. Why would Clinton recover in this environment? Who is she going to attract. People like a winner and we appear to have one. I predict a big win by a big margin. I will wait until Monday before I offer specific numbers. BTW my Obama Iowa number was dead on (37+).

Baring some monster unknown or gaffe, Obama is going close the deal Tuesday night.

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by: aiko @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:37:15 PM CST

Good analysis Chris (0.00 / 0)

After watching this St McCain townhall on C-Span 98% were over 60+, I can see McCain  winning NH. The Gooper elite are for Romney and the Romney machine might be better in NH Can't wait to see his St McCains lover tweety's face when he comes in a poss. 3rd in NH. Oh and LIEbermans too!

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by: gaiilonfong @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:47:18 PM CST

meant to say..CAN'T see McCain winning! n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: gaiilonfong @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:48:12 PM CST

Huckabee doesn't need media (0.00 / 0)

Huckabee doesn't need media.  I doubt his supporters watch the news.  They will get their direction from the churches.

As for Obama I'd predict really high results for him.  Most Clinton and Edwards supporters like Obama and are obviously going to like the idea of record democratic turnout in 08. 

The similarity of the positions among the top 3 will make support move easily to Obama in my opinion. 

Hillary has some good organization in NH, but Obama could hardly be in a better position.  Iowa was probably a much more favorable a state as far as demographics go to Edwards and clinton.

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by: Astera @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:57:28 PM CST

Independents- 40%- Really???? (0.00 / 0)

One of the biggest pieces of news coming out of Iowa was the much larger Independent vote than what most of the polls were predicting- except for the DMR.  I see that Rasmussen is calling for in NH a 40% Independent vote in the Demo primary- the same as 2004 and I believe 2000.

Hmmm.  Could they once again be missing something?

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by: Taran @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 13:46:39 PM CST

The independent vote wasn't much larger (0.00 / 0)

It grew something like 3-4%, and didn't double like the DMR predicted. New voters and younger voters were heavily up, though. (And Republicans something like tripled, but that's from 1%.)

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by: illissius @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 14:33:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thanks (0.00 / 0)

Yes, I said "Independent" rather than "First Time".  Brain fart.  But that's what I'm wondering about- will NH show a similar First Timer vote, or at least a very large turnout?

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by: Taran @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 14:59:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, it's easy to see the effect folks thanks to Chris's.... (0.00 / 0)

...........good work here.

But one thing to bear in mind is the cause:

http://www.dailykos....

Tough to compete when you don't actually exist anymore. And when you lost to Clinton.

Anybody who needs more convincing that Obama is the 'Corporate Candidate' has a very hard head indeed.

Further, this is serious bad news for the country and just highlights the need to work on fact-based blogging and infrastructure so that when, in four years or so, all the excited 'change' deluded Obama supporters wake up and say,

What happened? I thought we were gonna change things? What the fuck happened!'

They'll have a place to go where they can find out.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

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by: ACitizen @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 14:31:04 PM CST

I disagree (4.00 / 1)

I think today should be his best polling day ever, after the media saturation of Friday. And after, or as, NH voters see the outpouring of support for him in their state (Concord and Nashua rallies).

I predict at least one Sunday poll has him up by 13%

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by: along @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 14:56:09 PM CST

in fact (0.00 / 0)

today's ARG is Obama +12. That's a 16 point swing.
http://americanresea...

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by: along @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 15:22:37 PM CST

Re: ARG (0.00 / 0)

How dependable is ARG? Has it been pretty accurate in its prediction of elections in previous cases?

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008

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by: JewishJake @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 15:47:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

not in Iowa (0.00 / 0)

but it is a NH-based pollster, and apparently it's 2004 works was fairly good. sorry I don't have a link at hand at the moment.

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by: along @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 15:56:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not Good (0.00 / 0)

They were badly off in Iowa, and in 2000 they got the Republican NH results wrong by 20 points (they had bush winning by 2, mccain won by 18).

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by: Whoppo @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 16:54:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]