NH Prediction Thread

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 01:13


I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Obama will win the New Hampshire primary by a substantial margin tomorrow, followed by Clinton and then Edwards.  I know that sounds crazy, considering that Obama is so anti-establishment that he has raised only $100 million, garnered the support of a good number of ex-Clinton administration officials, and is treated exceptionally well by the press.  But he could just pull it off.

Anyway, in October, Clinton's perfect campaign had Obama donors panicking, just as today Clinton's campaign is in meltdown (and Obama's is the reverse dynamic).  Ed Kilgore rightly noted that in point of fact both these campaigns are all very well-run, and they are.  And while Clinton has been swinging wildly and missing in incredibly clumsy and sometimes racist ways, she will find an attack that works.  Obama hasn't been criticized yet in any real way, so don't be surprised if the story arc turns against him.  He's starting to get real flack and scrutiny, beginning with nasty establishment types that nonetheless have real influence.

Besides, FlaDem says that Obama's bounce is temporary, and FlaDem has a great track record.

What do you think is going to happen tomorrow?  Let's have percentages.  I'll say, randomly, 40-28-22-8-2, Obama-Clinton-Edwards-Richardson-Kucinich.
Matt Stoller :: NH Prediction Thread

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NH Prediction Thread | 41 comments
my prediction.... (4.00 / 3)
Obama will win by a wide margin. Then he will go on to the next state to win by an even wider margin, and so on....

The Obama campaign is picking up steam and gaining HUGE momentum, so much so that at this point it really doesn't matter what the Clinton campaign does, they're finished. Obama's wins will serve to further fire up his current supporters, making them even more effective than they already have been, and at the same time draw new support.

Hillary will lose by ~ 15 points in NH, and it will get worse from there. I don't know why I seem to be the only one who sees this trend, but Obama is about to TRAMPLE the competition, and that includes any Republicans he might face in the general election. I hope that Hillary will bow out gracefully, as I happen to like both her and Edwards.

My only wish now is that the bloggers and rest of the progressive activists would get on board with the Obama campaign and realize how transformational it is, and how it is about to change the entire political landscape of this country.

Also I think Huckabee will win for the GOP, then go on to be defeated by Obama in the general. By the time Obama is done winning every single Democrat and left-leaning blogger will be singing his praises about how great and how important his candidacy is.

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

additionally... (0.00 / 0)
I'd like to add that the only Pundits predicting a McCain or Clinton victory are those which want those candidates to win, with the exception of some misguided Democrats who have bought into the idea that McCain actually has a chance at the Republican nomination...

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.
[ Parent ]
any reasoning at all behind this claim? (0.00 / 0)
If:

The establishment hates Huckabe
AND would tolerate McCain or Romney
AND Romney is tanking
AND McCain is leading in New Hampshire

Why is it unreasonable to argue the McCain would win it all?

Really, you should provide some justification for your argument...

[ Parent ]
Huckabee... (0.00 / 0)
The reason I believe Huckabee will defeat McCain is because a) Huckabee is more likable/charismatic/ect than McCain b) Huckabee has been continually going UP in the polls while McCain has been almost entirely absent other than recent NH polling c) the more voters see of Huckabee the more they like him, they've all already seen McCain d) Huckabee is more energetic and appeals more strongly to the Evangelical base of the Republican party, you know the people who do all the actual organization and ground work.

There are other reasons I could name but I didn't realize I had to give every single reason why I thought my predictions would come true in this thread.


End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

[ Parent ]
my prediction (0.00 / 0)
McCain pulls a Kerry, and goes from 6% in polls nationally in December to the presumptive nominee in February.  I hope it doesnt happen, and I hope Huckabee wins South Carolina.  Thompson is out, and Romney wont win anything else, except Utah, and maybe Mass (but i doubt it.)
[ Parent ]
Michigan? (0.00 / 0)
Doesn't it all come down to Michigan? 

If Romney or McCain wins New Hampshire, they're still likely to lose South Carolina.  And so Michigan becomes the big test --- for Huckabee to win a non-southern state and for Romney or McCain to stay alive with a second victory.

One Million Strong --- Join up!

[ Parent ]
Resistance is futile (4.00 / 1)

My only wish now is that the bloggers and rest of the progressive activists would get on board with the Obama campaign

Prepare to be assimilated.

Perhaps Obama is the Ronald Reagan of the left.  But I doubt it.  Reagan used all kinds of dog whistles for the fundie racist base.  Obama seems to reserve his dog whistles for the Villagers.  Everyone else gets pablum.

[ Parent ]
Good prediction (0.00 / 0)
I have been telling folks that I predict Obama will break 40.  By that I mean around 41 guessing on the rest 30-22-5-2.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama
what will be the hit that works? (0.00 / 0)
she has been trying to hit Obama since the debate in November.  Maybe she will tell voters that he says crisis.  I can just see it being devastating.
Name me the devastating hit that sticks.  She is attacking from a place of ext ream weakness, it isn't going to help.
Obama's NH campaign chair is a lobbyist (0.00 / 0)
The narrative that undercuts Obama is an attack on his trustworthiness. 
[ Parent ]
The truth is he's only begun to be scrunized (0.00 / 0)
and I wonder if they k now this
[ Parent ]
right (0.00 / 0)
no one has said anything bad about Obama.  give it up.  I know you hope something will sink him.  If he has such a slim resume there isn't going to be much to go after.  the fact that he has a slim resume has been brought up over and over hasn't stuck.
[ Parent ]
It's the Obama followers that will get the scrutiny (4.00 / 2)
Eventually, the press will make a negative narrative about Obama that focuses not on him personally but on his followers. Already Rich Lowry has given us a taste of this in this morning's Washington Post story about the NH primary, talking about how "magical" an Obama speech is while also stating that there is something disturbing about the "messianic" nature of his campaign. Sydney Blumenthal at Salon.com has repeatedly characterized the Obama followers as "emotionally" driven and irrational. Remember how the DC establishment media went after Dean? He was a respected doctor and successful, popular gouvenor with a fairly centrist record, but instead of focusing on his record and background they focused on the "Deaniacs." Berkinstock-wearing, volvo driving, etc., etc. When "the acream" happended it seemed just to be a logical outcome of his supposedly emotional-driven, extremist campaign. I can just see the newswriters at Fox brainstorming on what to call Obama followers: Obamanoids? Hussein-heads? I'm not saying that Clinton will take up this narrative about the Obama camaign. In fact, she probably won't. But it would be better for Democrats in the long run if this media narrative developed in the primary instead of the GE where it will for certain become part of the right wing attack against an Obama campaign.
[ Parent ]
Obama being careful about this (4.00 / 1)
This is a good point but one Obama may have anticipated.

Obama continually says that Republicans and Independents have put him over the top (despite evidence to the contrary). It's hard for the Village to make a critique of his followers stick if those followers are supposedly bi-partisan.

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue

[ Parent ]
What the MSM can make stick (0.00 / 0)
An anecdote from the Iowa caucuses that portrays a potential negative media narrative for Obama--one he would find very difficult to control--came from Worm's-eye, a caucus-goer in Iowa, commenting over at TPM Election Central:
"I also sensed a greater cultural difference between Obama's caucus-goers and those for Edwards, Biden, Dodd and Richardson...Obama's caucus-goers were overwhelmingly young and somewhat counter-cultural (nose-piercings, beanie hats, facial hair, etc.). The other candidates had a broader range of ages and backgrounds among their supporters. In the course of chatting with many non-Obama supporters, I got a strong sense of discomfort from a good number of working-class and middle-aged and older Iowans." And this from a *democrat*. (I know someone might say, "but that's IOWA!" But that kind of snark is exactly what people outside the opinion centers of DC, NY, LA, and SanFran hate about "liberal elitism.")
Imagine what a rightwing media perspective is going to make of this kind of anecdote should it be widespread (which I suspect it is). Even Gary Kamiya at Salon.com, hardly a bastion of rightwing media, is characterizing the Obama "magic" as a wondrous "transformation" made possible by his unique "alchemy." Can't you just hear how this characterization could be turned into an argument by evangelicals that Obama is the anti-Christ? Rather then focusing on "bi-partisanship" as a way to blunt this narrative, Obama needs to add more grit and substance to his messages. Or maybe there's going to be a "Sistah Soldya" moment in his campaign to distance him from some of his supporters.
[ Parent ]
it has been brought (0.00 / 0)
He is a state lobbyist not a federal.  This isn't new, besides the worst story that can come out of the is that he is as bad as his opponent.

You think it is a good point because you think Edwards is more pure in this respect. 

[ Parent ]
He's going to get vetted (0.00 / 0)
He's going to get actual negative criticism from the press.  The question is whether you want it to happen now, and see how he stands up to it before nominating him, or you want it to happen later, when the republicans are on full attack mode.

Kerry was a press darling around this time in 2004.  How'd that work out for us?

[ Parent ]
the lobbyist (0.00 / 0)
And the reason that the distinction between state and federal lobbyists matters a lot is because Obama is a federal lawmaker  who would not come into contact with state lobbyists. In other words there is no potential ethical conflict involved. And then there is the fact that Clinton has received massive contributions from lobbyists conpared to any help Obama has gotten. Edwards has an even better record in that respect.
[ Parent ]
doubtfull... (0.00 / 0)
I do not think an attack on Obama's trustworthiness is going to be effective. Clinton or Edwards have proven no more trustworthy in their "long experienced careers" and to the average observer he seems much more honest and straight-forward about his beliefs than the competition. This has been said by even Republican talking heads.

I do not think there will be any attack on Obama that will be any more successful than the one about his experience, which was only marginally so.

I know you guys want it to happen, but I'm beginning to believe Obama is made of teflon, the type which even defends against the GOP slime machine.

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

[ Parent ]
Huh (0.00 / 0)
How would this attack work? Would it be founded in any reality, or just be a swift boating?
[ Parent ]
In this vein (0.00 / 0)
I was polled last night.  Felt like a push poll but it went on too long.  Three positive Clinton Statements then on to about 10 negative Obama Statements.  Lobbyist was one of them.  Some of them were laughable, but I'm an informed voter.

Feels like someone is about to toss a lot of mud out west.  Although I could not get much info about these guys, I wouldn't assume it was backed by a campaign, Could of been a yet unnamed 527 about to jump in.

[ Parent ]
And Clinton's chief adviser (Penn) (0.00 / 0)
Is pro-business and anti-union.  Whis is more important--Obama's state chair is a state (but not federal) lobbyist or Clinton's key adviser who has shaped her message is a conservative Dem who works for business interests.  Get real.

Prediction: 

Obama 42%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 25%
Richardson 6%

McCain 31%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 23%
Paul  10%
Thompson 3%
Giuliani 3%

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to say Obama gets 45%... (0.00 / 0)
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 20%
Richardson: 7%
Kucinich: 1%

McCain by 3% over Romney.  Huckabee under 20%, Paul at 10%...

 

My prediction and fear (4.00 / 3)
that Obama wins NH by as much as 12, (O-42,C-30,E-18) and then sails in South Carolina all the while Clinton flails angrily, dragging things on to Super Tuesday, bruising him until he wins California.  Whichever attack sticks, and I bet it will be a simple instance of him not living up to his word... (maybe the PATRIOT Act vote?) Obama will depend on three things to protect him and his narrative:

1. John Edwards will be his bad cop and call out Hillary on her defense of the status quo.
2. The media will focus on a the wounded and dying mastodon of the Clinton/DLC machine.
3. Obama will able to turn up his nose and say, that's what we need less of in politics, that nasty, nasty mean "politics of division" or "personal attacks." He'll glow with hope, assume the high ground and the masses will cheer at the mighty Clinton behemoth laid low.

Why is that scary? Because Obama remains unchallenged in this scenario. Primaries are supposed to test candidates.

"You're not being nice" is not a defense. A low blow followed by an uppercut is a defense.

Obama's main defense, an appeal to "unity" or "civility," is a guarantee that he is going to get shivved by the GOP and not even know that he's bleeding out.

If his appeal to voters remains a glowing rhetoric of hope and transformational change and how politicians need to start transcending the constitutionally prescribed adversarial nature of our multi-branch system of government or 'polarization' by adhering to a New Politics of change rooted in hope (or some such); then his appeal is effectively to ask Americans to trust that he is the leader with the "vision" or the "magic beans" or whatever. You have to believe him worthy of your faith.

Then all it takes is one example if him being a hypocrite to ruin his narrative. Completely.

He needs to prepare for some narrative SNAFUs setbacks - "Just trust me" works up until the first leak is sprung. I'm scared he is not preparing a narrative that includes blamable bad actors.

There are many villain archetypes to chose but he should blame disappointments on something that underscores how Republicans always lie when they attack, cowards, all frightened of prison, typical crooks.

That's how you survive the GOP attack machine. You don't survive an attack with a sort of zen 'there is no spoon' / "Neo enters the code itself" trick of sublimation. That's actually the best way to let yourself get utterly slaughtered.

Anyway, O-42,C-30,E-18 and an ulcer for me.

Obama's Perfection is his Achilles heel. (4.00 / 1)
Or is it the other way around? The Rezko dealings and the unconnected dots between his contributors' list and some of his senate votes are ready-made Whitewater, Lincoln bedroom and Travelgate narratives. And unlike the Clinton "scandals", the Obama stuff is actually true.
[ Parent ]
This is true (0.00 / 0)
And while Clinton has been swinging wildly and missing in incredibly clumsy and sometimes racist ways, she will find an attack that works.

I doubt it.  The blogs never managed to land a hit.  The only thing that comes close is when he defended McLurkin and he has a record of helping gays and lesbians in ilinois

I also doubt that the media coverage will turn against him.  Obama doesn't take pride in being hated by all the people with power so he is actually quite good at getting them to like him.

My prediction that Obama's biggest worry up to the election is that he could be shot.

Are you serious? (0.00 / 0)

I also doubt that the media coverage will turn against him.

When Saint John McCain goes after Obama as being an empty suit, just watch the press corpse going, You know, he's right.....

Who was that guy who was challenging Jeb in the gubarnatorial and being too vague to be attacked, then Pumpkinhead asked him how he was going to pay for things and he collapsed....

[ Parent ]
except ... (0.00 / 0)
... Obama really does have the level of accomplishment to back up the rhetoric, both in Springfield and in Washington.

An Obama/McCain campaign would be based on a simple question: do you think Iraq needs more US troops, or fewer?  We will win that argument.

[ Parent ]
Please don't give voice to such fears. (0.00 / 0)
Obama isn't just saying trust me, I'll be nice.  He is saying that we need major changes in this country on foreign policy, health care, the economy, you name it.  And the best way to get real change is a melding of a man and a moment.  Have an inspiring leader AND a large band of people behind him that can really push for change and isolate the GOP obstructionists and negotiating with those who are willing to come to his table. 

This is, in fact, what Bill Clinton tried to do, but he didn't have the popular following in 1993-4, having won only by a plurality, he didn't have the old bulls in his own party, and he didn't have bloggers and activists behind him because politics then was so much more issue-group oriented and there were no nets.  People did rally to him in 1998 when he was attacked, but not before that. 

Don't be a prisoner of the past.  The landscape has changed drastically since 1993-4 in many, many ways, not the least of which is that we are on the ascendant and the GOP is following a downward trajectory and riven by dissension.  It really does remind me of 1960, but with a lot of twists.  Did you know that "Experience Counts" was Nixon's slogan?  That the person with all the policy proposals was Adlai Stevenson?  JFK was a breath of fresh air.  He was partisan, but largely against LBJ until the general, and then he picked him for VP.  He was also following a popular sort-of transpartisan and popular President in Ike, while now we have the divisive, inarticulate, whiny and immensely unpopular GW Bush.

Obama will depend for success on a lot of popular support behind him pressuring him, the more conservative elements in the Dem party and the remnant GOP obstructionists.  The press?  They love a winner, and they don't want to look like racists.  They won't treat him like Bill Clinton.

I hope Obama moves quickly to consolidate his hold after Feb 5 by naming Gore as his VP with the environment portfolio.  That will be his best insurance--like Cheney for Bush.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
oops, I was wrong about Edwards (4.00 / 1)
Well, I'll stick my neck out and go O-35, E-30,C-28, R-5, K-2.

I'm pining for post debate polling showing that Edwards had a great debate night and stalled Obama's mo.  They are getting great turnout for their events to it's difficult to gage but O's got the Mo. 

My Edwards predictions have crashed and burned, let's see where this one ends up

O-42; C-31, E-19, R-7, K-1 (0.00 / 0)
hoping for more from Edwards but not optimistic.
Same as Iowa (4.00 / 1)
I think HRC will come in at 29% and that will be the story--that she could not break 30%. Roll scratchy recording of bugle playing taps. Obama at 38%.

McCain wins, but the story will be that he has maxed out all his credit cards and that Huckabee has big lead in SC. 

So, the two thin guys go on to the general. The low carb election.

Bet The House On It (0.00 / 0)
O-45
E-31
C-19
K-4
R-1
Obama 38 (4.00 / 1)
Clinton 31
Edwards 24
Richardson 5
Kucinich 2
McCain 32 (4.00 / 1)
Romney 30
Huckabee 15
Paul 10
Giuliani 9
Thompson 3
Hunter 1
[ Parent ]
For the record (0.00 / 0)
My Iowa predication was amazingly good (through no skill of my own), yet I failed to post it! Not this time....

My New Hampshire Prediction -
Obama 39% , Clinton 30%, Edwards 21%, Richardson 7%
///
McCain 35%, Romney 27%, Huckabee 14%, Paul 11%, Giuliani 8%, Thompson 3%

Yes, I realize they don't add up to 100%. Just going with my gut here.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

News from the front??? (0.00 / 0)
Has anybody here a link to a good liberal Granite State blog that is reporting live from the vote? Would be interesting to hear about voter turnout...
The Clintons will Go Racist In Florida (0.00 / 0)
I think the Clintons will go racist in Florida, but JRE will be there he will call the Clintons out on it.  The Clintons will be trash if they go racist, and I would say to all AAs not to vote for someone who would use race to win.
Here's some wishful thinking: (0.00 / 0)
36 / 28 / 28 / 7 / 1
Obama / Clinton / Edwards / Richardson / Kucinich
Repubs (0.00 / 0)
29 / 27 / 18 / 12 / 12 / 2
McCain / Romney / Huckabee / Guiliani / Paul / Thompson
[ Parent ]
Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Obama 45%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 21%
Others 3%

McCain 34%
Romney 32%
Paul 11%
Huckabee 11%
Rudy 8%
others 4%

NH Prediction Thread | 41 comments
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