Clinton's 50% Michigan Threshold (0.00 / 0)

I totally disagree with Chris' bias in his comments. He is constructing an artificial hurdle for Clinton which is ridiculous. So far no one in the two primaries has reached a 50% threshold and likely won't in the future as long as there are three in the race.

Frankly Chris' artificial hurdle for Clinton is insulting to both Obama and Edwards supporters. Just because the two made a bonehead move to not be on the ballot does not mean that there are not supporters of each in Michigan. And if they support the two of them it is not very likely that they would vote for Clinton just because Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot.

In fact I would expect some write-ins for those two and if anything Clinton's numbers might end up being artificially LOW because there is not much motivation for Clinton supporters to go to the polls when she has the state in the bag.

I'm not sure if there are other things on the ballot besides the primaries that would motivate voters to the booth but if not, if anything, I'd expect a lower than normal turnout because of Obama and Edwards not being on the ballot and the question of where the states delegates are going is not in question.

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by: progressivesouls @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:58:16 AM CST

There he goes again... (0.00 / 0)

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by: bluethunder @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:53:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

(Progressivesouls that is) he or she with more hillary stumping (0.00 / 0)

We won the Battle. Now the Real Fight for Change Begins. Join MoveOn.org and fight for progressive change.  

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by: bluethunder @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:55:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

So where did the 2nd choices in IA go again? (0.00 / 0)

Didn't they all go to Clinton, like you said?

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

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by: clarkent @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 15:43:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well we are not sure (0.00 / 0)

are we? As there are no records on that. Richardson and Kucinich were the only ones to make a statement and we can't be sure that their supporters followed his lead. Biden and the others said nothing so who knows what happened there.

But from reading the last few days how many people have said they switched to Hillary at the last minute in NH I guess it is safe for us to say where enough second choices went in that race isn't it?

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by: progressivesouls @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 15:58:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Michigan is a tragedy (4.00 / 3)

I don't care who is to blame - we are all suffering because of this. To actually sit back and watch while a state gets excluded from the Democratic process is surreal, to say the least.

I really cannot wrap my head around this. Whether or not it counts at the convention is irrelevant at this point. I mean - how would one of us, the political involved, feel if our state suddenly meant precisely jack shit in the nomination process of the next president?

And as you may know, write-ins will not count. Imagine if you had spent the last 10 months working and volunteering and donating money to your candidate, and then when your primary comes around, you can't even vote for that candidate.

Sorry to make such a big deal out of this, but I think we all need to recognize it IS a big deal.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:07:30 PM CST

Of their own making (4.00 / 2)

Tragedy of their own making.  I would like to see the primary process reformed, but two states unilaterally deciding to push the primaries back into October 2007 was/is not the way to do that.  They knew what would happen; it did.  Not sure how to complain about that.

sPh

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by: sphealey @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:38:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah ... (4.00 / 1)

but even being an Edwards fan .. It was stupid of him to pull off the ballot .. even if the delegates weren't going to be counted(likely to change later of course) .. because all three would go campaign there .. and Edwards message would surely be well received there

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:24:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly (0.00 / 0)

And as it turns out they'll STILL have way more of an influence on who the nominee is than the people of Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, US Virgin Islands, Maine, the District of Columbia, Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, Wyoming, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana AND South Dakota.

I have no sympathy for cutters.

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by: Jack @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:26:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Man (0.00 / 0)

I have been jonesing for another one of your updates.  These things really help me stay on top of the race so I can tell the Obama supporters I talk to what is going on.  Thanks for separating out the pledged and unpledged delegate counts it makes a big difference.  Too many reports are ignoring the unpledged or combining them, neither of those are that useful.

It is interesting on the Republican side that Romney with two silvers is ahead in the delegate count.  It is possible for him to keep that up for some time as long as this is a three way race.  I am still predicting that one of the three will be effectively out after South Carolina.  If Romney is still ahead in the delegate count after MI but he doesn't win it, look for a strong push to talk about the delegate count by his team.

MI is interesting I think on the Dem side, there is a push for uncommitted and it polls close to Clinton it will likely be spun as a major blow.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama

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by: Luam @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:16:31 PM CST

Michigan is a disaster (4.00 / 1)

and a potential minefield for Clinton.  I really think it could become a no win situation for her...she does well and the press says, yeah, but you were the only candidate on the ballot.  She gets less than a huge majority and it's spun as a repudiation of her candidacy...even worse than losing to a dead person.

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by: moreaxe @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:20:44 PM CST

My question is (0.00 / 0)

what happens if Obama wins Nevada and South Carolina, and Clinton takes Michigan (even if 50%+)? Who is the favorite at that point? I would have to take Obama, considering the fact that he would then have three of the first five victories, one close second place plus a loss in a less relevant state? Does Obama really have to sweep all pre-February 5th states to become the undeniable frontrunner?

Also, wtf is up with the polling in Nevada? We're 9 days away and there hasn't been a poll in a month? Can anyone explain this?

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by: expatriatedjerseyan @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:24:55 PM CST

Nobody knows how (0.00 / 0)

to poll Nevada it is their first time...turnout could be anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000.

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by: cardboard @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:25:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

And nobody knows (0.00 / 0)

if the media will count Michigan. There's some hint that they will follow the DNC policy for now and not count Michigan's delegates. If so, Clinton will be denied the perception of having a big delegate bounty. This is regardless of whether the delegates are eventually seated.

DemConWatch

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by: msn1 @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 21:51:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What are the Republicans going to do? (0.00 / 0)

What are the controllers of the Republican Party going to do when they wake up in April and Huckabee is the candidate?  Particularly if the Democratic nominee is still unknown? They can't have voters (their _own_ voters that is) telling them who the candidate will be, they can't have Huckabee - but they can't count on being able to accept Pres Hillary for 4 years and put pressure on her from the business side.

sPh

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by: sphealey @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:41:10 PM CST

Corrections/queries (0.00 / 0)

Chris, I believe the delegates at stake for Republicans are 24 in LA, 93 in FL. 

Also, there aren't 2209 unpledged delegates, are there? Shouldn't there be two different numbers on those two lines for the Democrats?

Tim Wolfe

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by: bruorton @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:57:22 PM CST

Fixed (0.00 / 0)

There are about 3500 unplegded delegates, actually.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 14:06:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Huck in MI (4.00 / 2)

I suspect that after Huck saw the MI polling numbers, he realized he could deny Mitt a victory in MI with just a bit of effort, and likely push him out of the campaign to set up a showdown between himself, as the pre-emptive base candidate, and McCain, as the Independent's Republican. Lucky for McCain, a lot of the Super Tuesday states are chock full of Independents. But they're not so independent as NH, and it's not clear whether independents, if they can choose, will vote for Obama or McCain, which will continue to be a tertiary contest in this race and may end up being decisive.

As for the MI poll--I would not trust any poll that gives pollees only the ballot of their stated party; there will simply be too many cross-overs, and it'll give you bum data for the Republicans (though I'm not entirely convinced that cross-overs will go for McCain this time).

That said, if you take the MIRS poll numbers for Dems:

Hillary 48%
Uncommitted 28%
Unsure 11%
Other 10%

You might guess that many of those 10% are going to cross-over, and a goodly number of those unsure are weighing a cross-over or an uncommitted (I know a number of very tuned in people in that spot right now).

As I've said before, the machine efforts to get people to vote uncommitted are just getting started, so that uncommitted number might grow as people realize it's the closest vote to an Edwards or Obama vote--or, for that matter, to make the vote even halfway meaningful.

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by: emptywheel @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 13:10:04 PM CST

Prediction: GOP race will be over before Dems (0.00 / 0)

Here's my thinking on why McCain will have the GOP nomination wrapped off after 2/5 while Hillary and Obama will still be competing:

1.  McCain will win Michigan (up by 9 in most recent Strategic Vision poll; independent voters with no Dems to choose from, etc.).  Huck and Romney at least 5 back.  Romney effectively dead, especially if he comes in third.

2.  McCain will win SC on strength of Michigan bounce and support from party establishment (e.g. Lindsay Graham etc.)  Two polls out today (Rasmussen and Strategic Vision) already have McCain up on Huckabee - hard to see that dissipating after a Michigan win 4 days earlier.

3.  Because of this momentum, McCain will go on to win Florida (taking votes from Giuliani who appeals to the same hawkish, more socially "moderate" voters).  McCain is already within single digits in two most recent polls (1 has Huck in front, 1 has Rudy)  Huck battles Giuliani for second.  Since Rudy doesn't win his must-win state, he is toast.

At this point, McCain will have 4 wins in a row.  While parts of the "base" have issues with him, the more powerful parts of the base have even more issues with Huck.  In a McCain vs. Huck head to head contest, the traditional media, WSJ, National Review, etc. will all go to McCain.  McCain will also do well in CA and most other Super Tuesday states, effectively finishing off the race.  Much more of the GOP primaries are winner-take-all, helping to bolster McCain's lead.

Meanwhile, Hillary and Obama are both very well-funded, and the 2/5 states are poised to split fairly equally (as Chris outlines yesterday).  Even if one candidate were to win California by 5-10%, the delegates will still be very close, and both candidates will have enough of a base to keep going well into February.

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by: DerekZ @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 15:28:14 PM CST

50 percent threshold. (0.00 / 0)

I think that your 50 percent threshold is low. If Hillary doesn't take an overwhelming majority 65% or more it will be seen as a major repudiation. That will be 35% voting against the only candidate on the ballot.

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by: StrawMan @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 17:35:26 PM CST

Obama's has at least 57 superdelegates (0.00 / 0)

We've got 57 announced superdelegate pledges for Obama listed at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.

DemConWatch

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by: msn1 @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 21:55:17 PM CST