Tons of new polls this morning (most links to polls are embedded in state names):
Michigan (Jan 15): Seven polls taken over the weekend show a dead heat between Romney, who averages 27.0%, and McCain, who averages 26.3%. The only tracking poll, from Mitchell research, shows Romney rising from a 5% deficit to a 2% advantage over the course of the week. Do I dare to hope that Romney will actually pull this off? Painfully, if McCain wins, it will be because Obama and Edwards pulled off the ballot. Otherwise, McCain’s Democratic and Independent support would dry up, and Romney would take the state. Talk about digging our own grave in the general election. Michigan Democrats for Mitt becomes more important.
Nevada (Jan 19): Three way tie in the Democratic race, with Obama at 32%, Clinton at 30%, and Edwards at 27%. Reports of Edwards’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, but he really needs a win. The Republican campaign is equally close, with McCain at 22%, Giuliani at 18%, Huckabee at 16%, and Romney at 15%.
South Carolina (Jan 19R / 26D): Yet another new poll shows Obama maintaining a double-digit lead, 44%--31%--16%. On the Republican side, McCain is again shown edging in front of Huckabee, 28%--21%, with Romney (17%) and Thompson (14%) a little further back.
Florida (Jan 29): Two new polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen also show identical results. On the Democratic side, Clinton holds commanding leads of 21% and 24%. On the Republican side, both polls show four-way ties. Quinnipiac pegs the campaign at McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Huckabee 19%, Romney 19%. Rasmussen shows McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, Huckabee 17%. Can’t get any closer than that!
National (Feb 5): These don't matter as much as the state polls, but they are still a useful way to gauge the state of play on February 5th. New polls from Rasmussen and ABC- WaPo show a close campaign on the Democratic side, with Clinton leading Obama by 4 and 5 respectively. Two other polls, from CBS and ARG, show Clinton well out in front by 15% and 20% respectively. All four polls show McCain ahead, but once again by greatly varying amounts of 3%, 6%, 8% and 15%.
Exciting stuff. However, keeping it exciting will require McCain to lose in Michigan and in either Nevada or South Carolina. On the Democratic side, an Edwards Nevada win would be a shocker that would really shake the campaign up. An Obama Nevada win would probably lead to a comfortable South Carolina win, making the national campaign a dead heat entering Super Tuesday. Basically, keeping the campaigns close requires the next four states to each take the frontrunners, Clinton and McCain, down a couple of pegs. Right now, the possible outcomes appear to be increasing in number, not decreasing.
I have put today’s nomination charts in the extended entry.
