First, think about Nevada. Then, watch this video:
Now, what do you think will happen in Nevada tomorrow? I'll stick my neck out and go with Obama 37%, Clinton 36%, Edwards 26%, Kucinich 1%. I rarely pick someone who is behind in the polls to win, so this is a bit of a leap for me.
Uupdate: Why do I think Obama will outperform the polls in Nevada? My rationale is pretty squishy, as I simply think Obama will perform better in caucuses than polls show. And why do I think that? Caucuses draw out activists disproportionately to low-information voters, younger voters disproportionately to the elderly (a caucus is kind of like a rally, so advantage Obama), second choices matter (advantage Edwards and Obama, as they typically lead in second choices), there are no absentee voters (advantage Edwards and Obama, since they started so far behind), and the Wilder effect can't play a role (advantage Obama). I don't have a huge amount to back all this up, but I guess we will find out tomorrow. Call it the inflated Clinton caucus poll theory. In fact, throughout this campaign, I expect Clinton to do better in primaries than polls show (due primarily to advantages built up during absentee voting, and secondarily to a possible Wilder effect) and Obama and Edwards to do better in caucuses than polls show (for reasons listed above). That's my theory, and tomorrow is another chance for it to be tested.
Update 2: We should start seeing the earliest returns around 3-3:30 p.m. eastern, tomorrow. We should have all of the returns by 5:30 pm eastern.
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