Nevada Democratic Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 15:05


Nevada Democratic Party, and CNN should all have results.

69.88% of precincts reporting
Clinton: 50.24%
Obama: 45.12%

Update 6: Clinton wins Nevada: With 70% reporting, I'm calling Nevada for Clinton. While Obama  leads by about 10-11% outside of Clark County, Clinton leads by about 11-12% within Clark County. Clark County is two-thirds of the delegates, and The Strip caucuses are not breaking for Obama. This one was close, but actually the Clinton-Obama margin appears to be very close to the polling average. This puts a dent in my theory on Obama outperforming polls in caucus states.

Update 5: Clinton winning on the strip: Matt just called to say that Clinton is apparently narrowly winning the nine precincts on The Strip, and won his precinct 189-187. Even with the exit poll screw-ups in rural Nevada, that probably means Clinton wins. It will, however, be a lot closer than the exit polls indicated because of the exit poll screw-up in rural Nevada.

Update 4: The entrance poll wildly wrong on rural Nevada. With 33% 62% in, outside of Clark and Washoe counties, Obama has 485 delegates and Clinton 418 delegates, even though the exit poll had Clinton up 15% a dead heat outside of those two counties. That is a clear exit poll screw-up right now, and the state as a whole will be closer than the 14% the exit polls project. Further, within Clark country, the Strip caucuses were not included in the entrance poll. This isn't over yet.

Update 3: Entrance poll points to a clear Clinton victory of about 48%--34%.  She leads men and women. Women made up 59% percent of the caucus, and Clinton leads Obama by 22% among women.

Update 2: Shouting and Club Kids in The Strip precincts: Matt is on the strip, and says it is an absolute madhouse. People are in their corners and shouting out at each other. There is a culinary workers for Clinton section, a "nightclub kid section," and about every subculture you could imagine in Vegas. and they are all shouting at each other.

Update: Edwards not in the running: It looks like a two-way contest, so I'll stick with only updating Obama and Clinton for now.
Chris Bowers :: Nevada Democratic Results Thread

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Nevada Democratic Results Thread | 33 comments
Talkin' bout Reagan again (0.00 / 0)
CNN just played a small clip of Obama's Reagan babbling, and Terry McAuliffe responds by saying "if Obama loves Reagan, that's fine". He managed to slip that in between his ranting about 'voter suppression'. Maybe this is standard fare for this guy, but it makes me ill to watch.



"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Welcome to Politics 101 (0.00 / 0)
Like it or not, it's how the game is played.  Not pretty but somehow it manages to work out.
[ Parent ]
Wow, fascinating (0.00 / 0)
Las Vegas becomes what people think New York is.

Chris, what are your thoughts on Edwards numbers?

Specifically (0.00 / 0)
if Edwards is not making the 15%.
[ Parent ]
Entrance Polls (4.00 / 1)
Is there an age factor on those Entrance polls?
entrance poll (0.00 / 0)
18-29: 11%
30-44: 16%
45-59: 33%
60+: 39%

Those numbers don't bode well for Obama.

John McCain <3 lobbyists

[ Parent ]
Thx -- Nope..! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Chris... (4.00 / 1)
Strip caucuses were not entrance polled. Not sure what amount of caucus goers those sites represent.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
This is a very important point (0.00 / 0)
n/t
[ Parent ]
Anyone know how many of those have reported? (0.00 / 0)
Do they report en bloc?
[ Parent ]
Caesars Palace Caucus on CNN (0.00 / 0)
It looks like a pretty even split in the one strip caucus that is being broadcast.  That's not good news for Obama either.

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone
[ Parent ]
6% (0.00 / 0)
I haven't called it yet, but I am really, really close to doing so.
[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
Look at the entrance poll charts at CNN. 59% women, 39% to 11% for over 60 vs. under 30 voters? This sounds like a massive Clinton blowout to me. (There's something with having to recalibrate exit polls with final data, but I'm not sure what that's about -- so maybe this is meaningless, but then I'm not sure why they're showing it...)

Is Obama still running for President? If this state is as critical for him as it seems to be, why didn't he put more resources into it? Or does he have some secret post-Nevada plan?

Those entrance polls (4.00 / 1)
now say 58% and 36-13, without anything else changed, so there's definitely some funniness involved. Take back anything I said about entrance polls. I don't know how these things work, and why the hell CNN is displaying them when they're so volatile.
[ Parent ]
Grain of salt on the entrance polls (4.00 / 1)
The GOP entrance polls keep changing, with Ron Paul's numbers dropping significantly. Don't know if that will happen on with the D poll, but keep an eye on it.
Entrance Polls (0.00 / 0)
Just browsed them, and found one important nugget...
Clinton takes 65% of the Latino vote and 62% of the Catholic vote. Well, now we have the first evidence of how Obama does among Latino votes - not good at all, apparently!

This might be a big deal. And to think I thought the race talk was going to calm down for a while. But couple this with Obama's impending sweep of SC's black vote, and race may become issue #1 heading into Feb 5.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

Which is not good for Obama either. (0.00 / 0)
And if he somehow manages to not win in SC, it's even worse.
[ Parent ]
The Latino Vote (0.00 / 0)
With thanks (no doubt) to Haim Saban through his buy-out of Univision...

"...How Haim Saban, a flinty self-made billionaire, plans to turn Univision into the next great network - and put Hillary Clinton in the White House..."
http://online.wsj.co...

http://online.wsj.co...

[ Parent ]
Correct Link: (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
Well, Obama better get his fucking ass in gear after the Hispanics. (0.00 / 0)
During the all-important Feb 5th states, the black vote and four bucks will get you a cup of latte at starbucks.  That's reality.

He needs to eat into the latinos in California or he's done.

There's an old adage in political campaigns:  never continue to court a constittuency tyou have already attained.  Stop priming the pump when you've got them already.

If Obama loses, it'll be justified because latins may think he's ignoring them in favor of the black vote.  And Obama needs to stop being so after the fucking black vote because HE HAS THEM ALREADY!!!

Expand his theme and message and get those latinos!

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.

[ Parent ]
43% in... (0.00 / 0)
Clinton: 50.3%
Obama: 44.5%
Edwards: 4.9%

Why are the networks so far behind the actual results?

Further Reading

Edwards Caucus Goers Being Intimidated (4.00 / 1)
http://blogs.abcnews...

3:10 pm: A source at the Edwards campaign says one of their supporters came up to his caucus site at a Las Vegas middle school and was told by someone outside the building that Edwards was not a viable candidate, and therefore he should go home.

caucuses suck (0.00 / 0)
Caucuses are really, really bad.  What would be voter intimidation anywhere else is, I guess, what you are supposed to do at a caucus.  Otherwise, what the hell is the point?  Stupid way to choose anything.

On the other hand, I just noticed the "outside the building" part.  That should never happen, even at a caucus.

[ Parent ]
TalkingPointsMemo says there seemed to be Robocalls in NV too. (0.00 / 0)
http://money.cnn.com...

I don't think this time it was the republicans. 

Correct Link (0.00 / 0)
I apologize my copy button is failing... grrr...

http://tpmelectionce...

[ Parent ]
Probably not..... (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Why did the Republican results (0.00 / 0)
get stuck at 36% reporting? I mean, we know Romney wins, but I'm interested in things like whether McCain beat Paul...
Debate (0.00 / 0)
Even with the screwy exit polls, it looks like Clinton won this one largely due to the debate.  I wonder why.
Maybe (0.00 / 0)
because Tweety/MSNBC said she won the debate.

Banned for posting five straight diaries.
[ Parent ]
Obama arrogant, childish (0.00 / 0)
He stomps out of Nevada and goes home to IL?  He doesn't give a concession speech? 

After the Culinary went to the mat for Obama he can't give a concession speech and thank them and the rest of his supporters?

He needs to see his kids (0.00 / 0)
Chelsea is with Clinton.

Banned for posting five straight diaries.
[ Parent ]
How soon until Obama's flips the race card? (0.00 / 0)
Obama sent Jesse Jackson Jr. out the day after New Hampshire to accuse Clinton of not caring about Katrina victims, when asked about why Obama lost NH.

What does  Katrina have to do with NH?  Let your mind wander on what JJ Jr meant.

Plus the Sun-Times is not reporting that Obama is the "un-named pol" on the Rezco indictment.  Is Obama lawyered up?  Will Obama want to change the subject and will he look to race politics to do it?

Congratulations, to the Democratic Party and Media!! (0.00 / 0)
You've successfully left us with the two panderer/triangulators by eliminating all coverage of a third candidate!  Job well done!

At least I know now that I can sit back and not have to worry about working on the Nov. election, except for the local progressive who may also be swallowed alive by our local media and DLC-guy in training!

I write-in Edwards in Nov., then I drop my party registration!

We're back where we started in the 60's-70's but we're supposed to forget about them according to Obama and, on the other hand, we're supposed to go with the Clinton-Bush buddies .

Well, it's over. No more feeling forced to vote for people I do not believe in.  The Democratic Party is dead.

Nevada Democratic Results Thread | 33 comments
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