As I see it, right now four candidates have viable paths to presidential nominations: Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney. Four other candidates, John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson, can still influence the outcome of their party's nomination, but are unable to win it themselves. In the extended entry, I summarize the paths for each candidate as I currently see them.
Hillary Clinton: Win South Carolina on Saturday, and it is all over. Failing that, the first thing she must do is make sure she wins California, since it is her only must-win on February 5th. Assuming she does that, then she needs to hold Obama's win totals and delegate totals down as low as possible on February 5th. If Clinton can hold Obama to six or fewer wins on Super Tuesday, and if she can amass a pledged delegate advantage of 200 or more, then she will finish Obama off on February 5th. Given Clinton's 100-vote edge in Super Delegates, and her first dibs claims to the 313 pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida, a pledged delegate lead of 200 or more after Super Tuesday, with only 1,374 pledged delegates left, would be impossible for Obama to overcome,
Barack Obama: Obama faces a must-win in South Carolina on Saturday. Assuming he pulls that off, he can immediately even up the nomination on February 5th by winning California. A win there would be a huge momentum boost heading into a very favorable schedule for him the rest of February. However, if he wins South Carolina, but loses California, then he needs to take as many delegates and states as possible in order to survive for the favorable February schedule. Staying within 100 or fewer pledged delegates of Clinton, and winning as many of the following ten February 5th states as possible are key: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and North Dakota. Those are the ten February 5th states where I think Obama has a good shot if he wins South Carolina. While he can still be close to Clinton in delegates even if he doesn't win many states, the reality of our nominating process is that the national media narrative and Super Delegates will anoint Clinton as the nominee should she win two-thirds or more of all February 5th states. It isn't just about delegates: Obama must appear viable according to the media dominated rules of our nominating process in order to keep going after February 5th. The only way to do that is to win a bunch of states, probably seven at a minimum. If he manages to win nine or ten of the states I listed, he then has the potential to rack up wins in February, and take the national lead heading into the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th.
John McCain: McCain's path is dependent on three factors. First, make sure Giuliani is finished after Florida, so that he can take New York, New Jersey and Delaware on February 5th. Second, he needs to finish off Huckabee and Thompson in Florida, so that he can win Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee on February 5th. Third, he needs to do one of the following against Romney: beat him in Florida, beat him in California, or break Romney's hold on caucus / convention states. While he needs to pull off all three of these in order to win, the first two seem doable even if he doesn't win Florida (as long as Romney does), and there are three different ways to pull off the third one. In fact, he can accomplish all three at once by winning Florida, and isn't finished even he loses Florida. Overall, I think McCain has about a 65% chance of succeeding in this path, maybe even more.
Mitt Romney: Back from the depths, the dream of a Romney nomination is alive and well. His path is five-fold. First, he needs to maintain his stranglehold on caucus / convention states, which heavily clog the Republican schedule from January 22nd through March 1st. Second, he needs to win Florida, without which he might be finished. Fortunately, he leads in post-Michigan polling in Florida. Third, on Super Tuesday he needs to win Utah and Massachusetts, which should be easy. Fourth, he needs to win California on Super Tuesday, which is doable. The most recent poll from California shows him down only 7% to McCain, and that was taken just before Michigan. With money and momentum, Romney can absolutely scoop up all 173 delegates in this closed, winner-take-all primary. From that point, when McCain is broke and close to his spending limits, Romney can win the nomination on March 4th with wins in Texas and Ohio, the fifth and final stage in his path the nomination.
If Romney pulls this all off, he will have over 900 pledged delegates after March 4th. Throw in his advantage among unpledged delegates, and that he will have first dibs to the 87 delegates from Michigan and Florida that are currently not being seated, and he will only be about 150 delegates away from the nomination with 450 left to be determined. The keys for Romney are holding onto Florida, winning California, and holding into caucus and conventions states. I give him about a one in three shot of pulling this off.
And those who can't win, but can still be a factor:
John Edwards can hang in the campaign, and still be positioned to take about 100-200 delegates to the convention. While a longshot, it is possible that amount of delegates could prove decisive, making Edwards the kingmaker in the event of an Obama vs. Clinton brokered convention. Also, even if he doesn't go all the way to the convention, by staying in the campaign, he improves Obama's chances in South Carolina and several February 5th states.
Rudy Giuliani also can't win, but he can throw a wrench into the Republican nomination if he takes Florida. Doing so would seriously damage McCain in New York, New Jersey and Delaware, and seriously damage Romney in California. If Giuliani pulls out Florida, Huckabee hangs onto the South, and Romney hangs on to caucus and convention states, get ready for a brokered Republican convention.
Mike Huckabee can't win, because he needed a big boost from South Carolina, because the insider's don't like him, because he doesn't have much money, because the media doesn't take him seriously, and because he only seems to do well among evangelicals. He can, however, win Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma on February 5th with a focused campaign and a little luck. If he does that, if would seriously damage McCain, and also potentially allow Huckabee to bring a few hundred delegates to what might be a brokered convention.
Fred Thompson obviously can't win the nomination. However, he can still win Tennessee, which would influence Super Tuesday. He can also drop out and endorse McCain, which would be very useful to McCain.
So, that's a quick summary of how I see things right now. If I could only choose one outcome, I would choose Romney winning the Republican nomination, since it should lead to a big Democratic victory in the general election. For my money, that is a lot more important than the differences between Clinton and Obama, and a lot better than struggling to try and scratch out a narrow, come from behind win against McCain.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment. blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
