Obama appears headed to a clear victory in South Carolina. With a new poll from Zogby, here is the seven-poll average:
Obama: 43.1%
Clinton: 31.0%
Edwards: 13.9%
Obama has camped out in South Carolina since Sunday, while Clinton only appeared in the state on the day of the debate. At this point, if anything, I expect Obama's lead to increase. One wonders what size of victory, if any, can allow him to close the gap in California (where he trails by 12%) and nationally (where he trails by about 8%). I suppose that depends on how much he wins by, how much that victory in covered in the press on Sunday and Monday, and about the tone of the coverage. An 8% deficit is not enormous, and even a 4% bump could carry him to victory in as many as ten states on Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota). So, while Obama doesn't need much from South Carolina to stay in the game after Super Tuesday, he does need something of a boost.
In the key Republican Florida primary, with new polls from Strategic Vision and Public Policy Polling, here is the five-poll, entirely post-South Carolina average:
Romney: 23.2%
McCain: 22.6%
Giuliani: 19.8%
Since Huckabee is further behind, and pulling out of the state, it doesn't seem like he will be a factor here anymore. Also, while I think it is good that Romney has a slight lead on McCain in Florida, according to Survey USA, McCain has a 12% lead in early voting. That means Romney needs to win by more than this narrow amount in order to take the state. All three candidates are camped out in Florida form now until January 29th, but Romney appears to have both the momentum and the money here. Whether or not he can overcome McCain's early voting advantage remains to be seen.
Early voting will also be a factor in California, where Romney needs to do well in order to stay ahead of McCain, or at least close to him, on February 5th. The Field poll is the most recent, and almost always most accurate, poll from California, and it shows McCain narrowly ahead of Romney, 22%--18%. Florida and California are both must wins for Romney, especially now that it seems he did not perform very well in the Louisiana caucuses, where uncommitted won and Ron Paul finished second. While McCain didn't do well, it does seem he did better than Romney, which means that Romney might not the stranglehold on caucuses and conventions I thought he did. As TPM notes, the Republican base might not actually hate McCain, even if elite conservative movement-arians do. As such, he remains the Republican frontrunner, even if Romney leads in Florida, delegates, and money.
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