I've been reading McCain at 34, Romney at 32 N/T (0.00 / 0)

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by: alarabi @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:18:33 PM CST

Right (0.00 / 0)

http://www.cnn.com/E...
At 15% it's Mccain 34, Romney 41.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

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by: Sam L @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:09:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Any chance (0.00 / 0)

Any chance that Huckabee will manage to grab third place from Giuliani?

I almost find what happens to Giuliani here the most interesting thing. I'm sure what happens to the top two is significant, but I don't think that this primary by itself is going to decide the race between McCain and Romney. However given it looks like Giuliani is now looking at third place best chance, and he's given very little indication of backup plans after he doesn't win this one, I think Florida has a very very real chance to kick Giuliani out of the race altogether.

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by: mcc @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:35:47 PM CST

Potentially (0.00 / 0)

I had assumed Giuliani would withdraw February 6th, but that was predicated on him getting 20%+ in Florida. That isn't going to happen know, and so his candidacy is effectively over.

The question is whether he's utterly consumed by ego and still believes he has a chance in New York and environs, or whether he realises finishing third at best in his own state will finish his political career.

If he throws his support early after Florida, he probably couldn't play kingmaker - I don't believe that many people both like him and pay attention to him - but he might be able to make it look like that. And whilst I hope he'd never be confirmed, I could see him looking eagerly at the possibility of a nomination to be AG.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:55:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Will this decide anything? (0.00 / 0)

The CW has been that Florida is going to go a long way towards deciding this thing - that whoever wins will be the 'front runner.'

But does that still hold if the margin is extraordinarily thin? If McCain or Romney wins by, say, a percentage point, what rationale is there for treating Florida as anything but a tie?

Not that the media needs any particular rationale, but still.

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by: Jason C. @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:01:10 PM CST

Winner Take All (4.00 / 3)

The reason why tonight is so huge is the format the Reps chose to use--winner-take-all. Even if margin of victory is 1%, McCain will get all the delegates.

Furthermore, the very McCain-friendly media will trumpet his victory for various news cycles, thereby sealing Romney's doom next week.

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by: diogenesis @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:14:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure that's true. (0.00 / 0)

I've heard that line repeated a lot, but I've also heard that the delegates go 1/3rd to the statewide winner, and 2/3rds to the winner of each congressional district.

In a race where the frontrunners are only 3 points apart, the congressional districts could split evenly.

Does anyone know the answer?  I'm pretty sure this is how California works, for the Ds and the Rs, but I don't know about Florida.

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by: texas dem @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 14:17:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

diogenesis is right (0.00 / 0)

Republicans have the option of making their states winner-take -all, and Florida is one of them.  While Democrats have their own crazy choices (see NV), they do not have winner-take-all states.

Giuliani's supporters made NJ (and NY) winner-take-all.  That will now benefit McCain.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 15:02:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Right, but (0.00 / 0)

I realize McCain will get a big chunk of delegates out of this, but it's hardly enough to put him over the top. So the real value in this victory for him is good old fashioned 'momentum' rather than delegates (though the delegates are certainly valuable).

So it seems like Romney can still make a plausible case to Republican voters that 'this thing isn't over'.

He should probably start explicitly making the argument that he's the only thing standing between McCain and the nomination.

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by: Jason C. @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 16:11:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Good News For Obama (0.00 / 0)

35-35 in those who decided in last week, according to CNN... 49% say that Ted Kennedy endorsement mattered.

Question:  Would Florida have been roughly even had the campaign gone there?

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by: cardboard @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:26:30 PM CST

35-35? (0.00 / 0)

What do you mean? That undecideds in the last week split evenly between O and C? I don't see that as good news for Obama at all.

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by: alarabi @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:32:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not undecides (0.00 / 0)

Just those who did not vote early.  MSNBC is now saying he won the day-of race.

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by: cardboard @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:39:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

huh? (0.00 / 0)

You mean more people voted for Obama today at the polls? And Hillary's lead is from early voting/absentee?

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by: alarabi @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:44:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly (0.00 / 0)

Though Early voting in Florida is Huge

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by: cardboard @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:50:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Please stop repeating this crap (0.00 / 0)

According to CNN exit polls, late-deciders went to Clinton.

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by: RalphB @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 15:26:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You're partially right... (0.00 / 0)

Clinton won people who decided today, though Obama carried those who decided in the last three days, last week and last month.

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by: davisb @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 15:29:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thanks for clarifying (0.00 / 0)

heads were not clear - go figure

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by: cardboard @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 15:58:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Issue is margin (0.00 / 0)

Obama beat Hillary 54% to 27% in So Carolina, IIRC.  Something like that--about 2-1.  If Obama and Edwards hold Hillary under 50%, and if he does as well or better with late decicers in a state where she was leading by a huge margin, it bodes well going into Feb 5. 

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:44:32 PM CST

Clinton kicks the crap out of Obama, (0.00 / 0)

and you think it bodes well for him?  Sounds more like denial.

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by: Querent @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 16:51:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Schwarzenegger (0.00 / 0)

I just heard a random pundit on MSNBC mention the possibility that Arnie could endorse Obama.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 13:45:55 PM CST

Doubt it (0.00 / 0)

He said about a week and a half ago that he wasn't going to endorse anyone.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 14:12:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm doubting it too (0.00 / 0)

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by: cardboard @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 14:16:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

DoS page doesn't include early/absentee voters (0.00 / 0)

That's why McCain is ahead by 3% on CNN

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by: nbeaudrot @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 14:23:02 PM CST