It'll be close (0.00 / 0)

If the primaries were next Saturday instead of next Tuesday, Obama would be the clear favorite to pick up most of the delegates that are up for grabs. But since there are only three days to go, it's going to be awfully close.

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by: Kal @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:48:25 AM CST

More time (4.00 / 2)

Assumes that he will continue rising. That is hardly a guarantee.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:50:59 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I haven't seen anything to the contrary (0.00 / 0)

Nothing is guaranteed in any election, but I haven't seen any signs of Obama's momentum slowing or reversing itself. He's been gaining for the last two weeks and I see no reason to think anything would change that before the next contest.

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by: Kal @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:10:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Momentum will certainly slow (0.00 / 0)

at some point.  But it is a pretty steep curve right now, and nothing so far gives grounds to think it will flatten between now and Tuesday.

You seem to be a little less depressed (vs brokered convention post).  Glad to hear it.  As my mother used to say, there'll be plenty of time to worry if things do turn bad.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:16:54 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Hope it is enough (0.00 / 0)

Even the polls you show though, still shows a Clinton lead.

Let's be optimistic though, and assume that Obama closes the gap, and loses the DELEGATE race, by say 50-100.  (I'm praying Obama WINS the delegate race, of course.)

That would be pretty good performance by him.

But let's say, that in terms of winning votes, he only actually WINS 1/3 of the states (he wins going away his states, proportionally, and barely loses NY, CA, etc).

Will the media report it as close VIA DELEGATES (say a 48/52 split), or will the media report it as Clinton wins 2/3 rds of states?

I think the latter.

And, would that then affect the later Feb states, that are favorable to Obama?

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by: JC @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:55:58 AM CST

Hard to say (0.00 / 0)

always hard to say what causes momentum, but yes, assume that the media will report on who wins states, not who wins delegates.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:01:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Which tilts the field in his advantage ... (0.00 / 0)

... since he has that advantage in the caucus states that he has been organizing for quite some time. The map is likely to look very much like Clinton can in win Democratic ground and Obama can win in Republican ground ... even if it is an entire optical illusion in the case of closed Democratic events in Democratic negative net PV states.

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by: BruceMcF @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 16:28:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Clinton would win that spin (4.00 / 1)

It's much easier to say "I'm a winner!" than it is to say "We're both winners!"

If one wins more states while the other wins more delegates, though...the headlines would be interesting! (Probably something like, "Clinton, Obama battle in 22 states")

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by: Kal @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:08:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

The media will report (0.00 / 0)

whichever is more favorable to Obama JK

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by: ukit @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:00:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

With superbowl, movement is down to a day or two (0.00 / 0)

Can't expect much more movement than what you get over 2 days.

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by: JC @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:57:12 AM CST

I'm actually not sure of this: (4.00 / 1)

People will be talking to each other much more on Sunday than on most days of most weeks.... I think that momentum is largely sustained by social reinforcement, and that this type of reinforcement could happen to a significant degree this Sunday.

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by: seabrook @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 14:20:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A lot of work Chris thanks for the effort! (0.00 / 0)

This is as complete as anything I have seen in any election, the fact it was done by a lone blogger is amazing.

Well done.

I don't know what the momentum is, nor how long it will grow, ha I don't even know how far its gone yet. But its fascinating. If this youth driven, new voter collecting phenom continues, it may be a new direction for America for a generation.

I certainly hope so, I would surely love to see a way to avoid the Repulsives coming back in 8 years.

I might suggest that the blog'o'cracy could provide enough criticism from the left to be seen as the next challenger in 2016, a new Edwards perhaps.

Crossing my fingers and planning on organizing for it.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

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by: HousesofProgress @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:20:04 AM CST

Colorado as Lean Obama (0.00 / 0)

is awfully optimistic. He was up within the MoE in one poll, but another had it dead even. The Denver Post endorsed Clinton today, which will help. And both campaigns are working it very hard. It's a bit unpredictable, especially with the caucus format. Clinton's union allies here are much more effective than the Obama counterparts, and there was a big Edwards vote that is up in the air.

At BEST Colorado is a toss-up.

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by: ColoDem @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:23:52 AM CST

Wait, how does Obama have half a delegate? n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: fernacular @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:24:40 AM CST

Democrats Abroad (4.00 / 2)

Obama has a Super Delegate endorsement from a member of Democrats Abroad. Super Delegates from DA are only worth 0.5 of a delegate.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:26:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

And just for fun... (4.00 / 1)

As I did last time, here's what the non-super-delegate count looks like after Feb. 5th if the count is based on state-wide polling (I know it's counted by district, this is just for fun).

State	Delegates	Clinton	Obama
Delegates	157.5	Proj.	Proj.
Alabama	52	20.28	19.344
Arizona	56	21.28	17.92
California	370	164.65	134.31
Colorado	55	17.6	18.7
Connecticut	48	21.12	19.68
Georgia	87	32.19	38.976
Illinois	153	44.37	82.62
Massachusetts	93	44.361	26.319
Minnesota	72	28.8	23.76
Missouri	72	32.4	23.76
New Jersey	107	50.932	37.664
New York	232	118.784	68.208
Oklahoma	38	16.72	7.22
Tennessee	68	29.92	18.564
Utah	23	10.58	5.29
Total Projected		900	700

Cunha for Congress (FL-06)

P.S. I'm not a big fan of John McCain

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by: madahnuc @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:57:19 AM CST

Nice one! (0.00 / 0)

Good to see it broken down in a delegate count, as a snapshot - even though it will change tomorrow!

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by: JC @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:19:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Here is someone else's delegate count (0.00 / 0)

The link

Final count through 2/5: 

Clinton:  949
Obama:  845

Not including super-delegates.

Super-delegates CAN change their pledge, correct?  I would hate to have super-delegates determine the final for Hilary, and have a Mondale type situation happening.

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by: JC @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 13:36:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

For the survival of the Democratic Party (0.00 / 0)

Obama better win the nomination. It's becoming quite clear if Clinton wins, the media, the Obama campaign and many of his supporters will do nothing to bring the party back together. Sad but true.

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by: jen @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:45:28 PM CST

And Obama (0.00 / 0)

Keeps saying his people won't support Hillary. That is stupid and unnecessary. If the Democratic Party can't survive a primary because the wrong person won, we really can't use the DEMOCRATIC part of "Democratic Party" can we?

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by: BlueLake @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 18:11:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd be careful with analysis based on polls (0.00 / 0)

Even in states very well polled (like NH and SC), the final number was pretty divergent from the poll. And remember how everyone derided the Iowa DMR poll that showed Obama with a 7 point lead because it was so much of an "outlier."

For example, the only state I have any direct experience in (MA) feels wildly off from that SUSA blowout number. Granted, Obama was waaaay behind a month ago, but there's been a lot happening, and there's not much to indicate that kind of blowout margin for Clinton. I'm not saying Obama will win (there was so much ground to make up), but just that the margin doesn't feel that large in all the ground work I've seen or heard about.

Which leads to the second point: what's a "safe Clinton/Obama" state? I know what you mean, but this isn't the electoral college. Margin matters greatly. A 15 point win isn't close to the same as a 2 point win, nor does a 15 point win by one get offset by a 1 point win by the other.

Personally, unless one or the other sweeps a large swath of states, I think the press will follow the delegate count to figure out who "won" the day. It's just too damn confusing otherwise. And I'm guessing the margin is close enough that no one will be declared the victor of the day.

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by: BriVT @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:48:21 PM CST

how to keep young voters interested (0.00 / 0)

this is definitely a close race and I'm excited by it.  I think both Obama and Hillary are good candidates and i have yet to decide between the two.  Although i find it hard to keep up on the issues i find it a bit more fun if it includes a bit of competition.  some friends and i are using fantazsports.com to predict super Tuesday and how the votes will sway by looking at pollstar and researching blogs.  I'm taking your input into account, and thank you for your information.  I just hope i can stay on top of the issues through till voting time.  I unfortunately did not vote last time because i was not motivated enough to educate myself on the issues and felt i should not vote when i was ignorant about the whole thing.

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by: angelamia @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 13:29:57 PM CST

Good luck making your decision! (0.00 / 0)

You may want to check out the YouDecide2008.com YouTube page...
http://www.youtube.c...

They have lots of the full debates up for viewing. Also, check around YouTube for various candidate speeches.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 14:09:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Some of those polls (0.00 / 0)

still have Edwards in them.  I know that Oklahoma number, for instance, is from a poll where Edwards finished second in the state.  Maybe Oklahoma is still a very safe state, but given that we know 27% of the people there have to choose another candidate, I would say that entire poll is of extremely limited value.

Right off the bat, I see the same thing with Arizona and Minnesota, although Edwards was never as strong in either state.  You already have those scored as toss-ups.

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by: lpmandrake @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 15:46:36 PM CST

What s un-predictable (0.00 / 0)

Large turn outs have made some of these poll's obsolete.

Nobody would have predicted the margin's of victory in both IA and SC.

My home state of MN is having an event at the target center which holds 20,000 and was sold out for tickets in one day and their is a waiting list of over 2000. The event is for Obama.

In 1998 no one predicted that Ventura would win the governorship even up to election day. The large turnout of young people and same day registration propelled him to victory.

Record turn outs and with independents only able to vote in the democratic primary for California make this race very doable for Obama to win. I am not saying he will win,

He has received the endorsements of all of the major paper's and with the endorsement of SEIU and moveon.org puts boots on the ground.

Bottom line is that huge record turn outs make most polling model's very u8n- ptrdictable.

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by: BDM @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 17:38:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

turnout (0.00 / 0)

I'm seeing predictions of record Super Tuesday turnout all over the USA.  If that happens, I'm inclined to believe that it works to Obama's advantage, as he does very well among youth, newly-registered voters, and African-Americans.  The kind of Democratic conservatives and  centrists who are likely to support Hilary just aren't as likely to be fired up and motivated to vote.

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by: global yokel @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 18:30:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Actually (0.00 / 0)

Hillary actually has done well with core Democrats and even liberals (NV is one key example).  Obama's the one who's supposed to attract the centrists remember?

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by: Patrickson @ Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 23:57:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

I consider myself a very liberal Democrat, age 49, professional with graduate degree, and see Hillary as a much more liberal candidate and therefore much more attractive for me personally.  I finally settled on her between Iowa and New Hampshire, when I came to accept that we just weren't going to nominate Edwards and when I came to appreciate really what a kick ass great candidate she is.  When I first heard of Obama's comparison of himself to Reagan, shortly after New Hampshire, I was instantly suspicious of his subtext.  To me, that didn't sound too much like the politics of hope but the politics of cynicism and calculation - really, politics as usual, nothing really different and special about that.  My sister, who lives in the wealthiest zip code in Minnesota, just got a multi-page glossy from the Obama campaign that was clearly targeted to her zip code and its overall message was Obama can work with Republicans, not a very progressive message.  I don't really hear Obama talking about the issues - my impression is that his campaign is mostly atmospherics.  What is the there there, I keep asking myself?  I am really interested in discussing the media's role in all of this, and in trying to understand the viciousness and negativity of so many of the Obama supporters in their fierce and fervent insistence that "we must" support Obama (one of my sisters included).  The current emphasis on Clinton's supposed "unelectability," by Democrats, no less, is a very destructive emphasis, certainly nothing hopeful about that either.

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by: Lake Lover @ Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:35:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Fired Up to Vote (0.00 / 0)

I'm a female who considers herself a moderate Democrat.  Trust me, I'm very fired up to vote - for Hillary!

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by: vdeputy @ Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 02:21:08 AM CST